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Those pesky preempts

#1 User is offline   mohitz 

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  Posted 2010-August-09, 05:55

AQxx - AJx AKJTxx

Teams, we vul, they NV. They open 2S weak. You are next.
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#2 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 06:54

Pard is quite short in spades, but may be quite weak as well. We should bid now and I like a mere 3 bid here.
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#3 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 07:29

3 for me

don't double.

3NT is a little sick with a void and 4 even if natural is undesirable with only 6 clubs and we just passed our most likely game.
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#4 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 07:46

3NT
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#5 User is offline   CSGibson 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 07:58

6 clubs. If I'm going to guess, I'm going to make the guess with the most upside
Chris Gibson
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#6 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 08:07

Maybe 655321's post should be UI but I am changing to 3NT, it's 19 after all.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#7 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 08:23

3N.
Hi y'all!

Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
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#8 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 09:30

3
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#9 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 09:45

Definitely 3NT for me.

What I don't understand is 3. That is way too big of an underbid when you could bid 4 (I couldn't but most could) or 5. If the point is to avoid missing 3NT then bid 3NT!
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#10 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 09:53

Here is my problem:

If I bid 3C, it seems that I can later bid 3NT. But I can't.

There probably won't be a "later". Partner knows about "approach forcing", and knows that 3D or 3H cannot be passed when bid by an unpassed hand. So, even if advancer bids 3H, we are in slam zone and 3NT will be a gross underbid.

At least a direct 3NT shows the strength of the hand. Will advancer use restraint with a lot of hearts? I try 3NT, and cross my fingers.
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#11 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 09:57

jdonn, on Aug 9 2010, 10:45 AM, said:

Definitely 3NT for me.

I want to choose an action that suggests the least tolerance for a contract and this is certainly a major contender. Just not sure if X followed by 3NT shows even less tolerance for . Now the 3 bidders are going to say this should be a contender. Perhaps you can, since they won't like it from me, address why 3s hoovers. B)
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#12 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 10:12

pooltuna, on Aug 9 2010, 03:57 PM, said:

Just not sure if X followed by 3NT shows even less tolerance for .

X shows 3 hearts and will have them 99+% of the time.

X then 3NT shows a fragile spade stop that was looking for other contracts. Partner will and should pull with 5 hearts.
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#13 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 11:08

I don't understand. This seems like an obvious 6 call, playing pard for as little as x xxxxx Kxxxxx x

Clearly, if you double, pard will never figure out that he isn't supposed to bid hearts, and if you choose then to bid 4 or 5 he may decide to pass rather than show his second suit. So, you have to take the bull by the horns and bid the best contract yourself - 6.

By the way, when you bid 6, pard will of course pass as Kxxxx with a singleton in their suit can't possibly be enough for a grand.

I am sure that a simulation will show that 6 has at least a 38.746% chance of making. The fact that the expected result may be down 6 doubled is not relevant.

On the expected spade lead, you will have no problem wrapping up 6 when diamonds are 2-2 and clubs 3-2 with the club Q offside third, of course.

Really, is this a problem?

:)
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#14 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 11:41

Will it ever end?
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#15 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 11:42

no
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
      George Carlin
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#16 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 11:45

aguahombre, on Aug 9 2010, 12:41 PM, said:

Will it ever end?

no I suspect not as we now have a new adjective and a new verb in our bridge vocabulary i.e. "I piltched the hand", "a piltch bid" :)
"Tell me of your home world, Usul"
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"

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#17 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 11:56

aguahombre, on Aug 9 2010, 12:41 PM, said:

Will it ever end?

Why should the most amazing bid in the history of recorded bridge ever end?
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#18 User is offline   mohitz 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 12:09

okay, let's say we bid 3NT.

Part 2: Partner had the perfect x Qxxxx KQTxx Qx. Will he make a call over 3N? If yes, what? How will the auction proceed with your favorite gadgets?

PS: 6 is a great call and might be the only way to get us to 7 :)
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#19 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 18:05

jdonn, on Aug 9 2010, 03:45 PM, said:

What I don't understand is 3. That is way too big of an underbid when you could bid 4 (I couldn't but most could) or 5.

If the point is to avoid missing 3NT then bid 3NT!

Pard rates to have like a 1444 and a bad hand. If he can raise 3 to 4, I'd rather take my chances with 5 thankyouverymuch.
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#20 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-August-09, 18:26

we are 0-6 in the rounded suits and partner rates to have 4-4?
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
      George Carlin
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