[PeterAlan]

I failed to make this slam yesterday, and would appreciate thoughts on the best line of play:

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(1♥: 4+; 2NT: 15-18; 4NT: quantitative)

Lead ♠9, likely from 98+; denies 10. First trick goes ♠9,K,4,2; no further information available about E's 4. If / when you play clubs, E has doubleton ♣J10.

How and when do you play the red suits for your twelfth trick?

I'm wondering whether there was a better line than the one I took; I'll share the full hand later.

[akwoo]

I think the best line is to win the spade in hand and lead a low heart to the board. If the QH is on your left, you have 12 tricks assuming clubs split. If not, and RHO fails to return a heart, you have set up the Vienna Coup in the red suits (if either defender has both the long hearts and the K of diamonds). (If RHO returns a low heart, I think you put in the 9 and hope.)

(Note that you should cash the first club in dummy - if the J or T appears you have a restricted choice finesse against the other player. (Hmm - is dropping an honor from JTx in this position a mandatory falsecard if you can do it quickly enough?))

[sfi]

akwoo, on 2024-February-25, 20:31, said:

(Hmm - is dropping an honor from JTx in this position a mandatory falsecard if you can do it quickly enough?))

Yes. It can't cost you anything to play an honour here, no matter what club is led from dummy.

[shyams]

We probably will fail if clubs aren't 3-2 so let's assume the split is benign. We then have 11 top tricks and need to establish only 1 more.

I would: Win ♠K, then play ♣A followed by ♣ to South's ♣Q. Then low to ♥J.
... We can claim if ♥J wins or if West rises with the ♥Q, so let's say it fails and East wins.
...... Now, I think the best play is to simply finesse the ♥9. We go down if both cards are wrong (i.e. East with ♥Q and West with ♥10).

Also, the club play at tricks 2 & 3 sets up a marked finesse for 5 tricks if East began with a singleton ♣J or ♣10.

[fuzzyquack]

In general, I don't think there is a cleanly best play since the defenders may produce the best defense. ♣A, low ♣ to Q. Low ♥ to J. If E wins the trick and doesn't return a low ♥, the best play is to play for ♥Txx combined with Vienna coup in ♦ when someone has ♥Txxx and ♦K. There is a clause since if cashing spades reveals five with W (unlikely after low ♠ in trick one by E), ♥ finesse gains in popularity against the squeeze. If W has both ♥Txxx and ♦K, there is no squeeze after E returns a low ♥ and down I go. Then E is a great defender and I likely must fall for a ♥ finesse, which negates the best play above.

[fuzzyquack]

akwoo, on 2024-February-25, 20:31, said:

I think the best line is to win the spade in hand and lead a low heart to the board. If the QH is on your left, you have 12 tricks assuming clubs split. If not, and RHO fails to return a heart, you have set up the Vienna Coup in the red suits (if either defender has both the long hearts and the K of diamonds). (If RHO returns a low heart, I think you put in the 9 and hope.)

(Note that you should cash the first club in dummy - if the J or T appears you have a restricted choice finesse against the other player. (Hmm - is dropping an honor from JTx in this position a mandatory falsecard if you can do it quickly enough?))

I somehow missed your post before, and feel stupid for mine now ;-})

[mikeh]

akwoo, on 2024-February-25, 20:31, said:

I think the best line is to win the spade in hand and lead a low heart to the board. If the QH is on your left, you have 12 tricks assuming clubs split. If not, and RHO fails to return a heart, you have set up the Vienna Coup in the red suits (if either defender has both the long hearts and the K of diamonds). (If RHO returns a low heart, I think you put in the 9 and hope.)

(Note that you should cash the first club in dummy - if the J or T appears you have a restricted choice finesse against the other player. (Hmm - is dropping an honor from JTx in this position a mandatory falsecard if you can do it quickly enough?))

Test

[mikeh]

akwoo, on 2024-February-25, 20:31, said:

I think the best line is to win the spade in hand and lead a low heart to the board. If the QH is on your left, you have 12 tricks assuming clubs split. If not, and RHO fails to return a heart, you have set up the Vienna Coup in the red suits (if either defender has both the long hearts and the K of diamonds). (If RHO returns a low heart, I think you put in the 9 and hope.)

(Note that you should cash the first club in dummy - if the J or T appears you have a restricted choice finesse against the other player. (Hmm - is dropping an honor from JTx in this position a mandatory falsecard if you can do it quickly enough?))

That falsecard from J10x is one of the most basic falsecards there is, and no good player doesn’t know it nor, unless he or she is half asleep, would there be any perceptible break in tempo before one of the honours was played.

The reason you cash a top club in dummy has nothing to do with restricted choice. You cash a club in dummy in case an honour appears on your right…now low to the queen reveals if it was a stiff and you have a marked finesse against west. The only gain from cashing the queen first is in the highly improbable event of west having all 5 missing clubs. But you have virtually no hope if he does.

Cashing the queen then low to the king also picks up Jxxx or 10xxx on your left, but it’s truly ugly….you have to use a spade back to your hand and now the normal play of a low heart towards the jack doesn’t work even if west holds the queen. He pops and plays a diamond through, and unless west has the diamond King, you have destroyed your communication

So win in dummy, high club, club to hand. Assuming 3-2 (and we know from the OP that they are), low heart towards the jack.

If west pops, 12 tricks are cold and you claim. Should it lose, east has to play a heart back if he started with Qxx no matter what his diamond holding. If he lacks the queen, you have the Vienna coup squeeze if he doesn’t lead a heart.

If he does lead back a heart, then the squeeze is gone and your options are to play for the 10 to come down under the AK or to insert the 9. Bear in mind that east has no idea who has the 9… but there is no realistic holding where a non heart return makes any sense. His not knowing where the 9 is just makes the play a little easier…if west held the 9 and east the 10, you’re down.

Since the heart return is mandatory, and since the percentages favour the 10 being in the long heart hand rather than the short, you insert the 9.

[PeterAlan]

Thank you all for your replies, and particularly mikeh for the very detailed analysis.

The full hand was:

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I played two rounds each of the black suits, and then led up to ♥J, losing to E's ♥Q. E then returned ♥7; I didn't finesse (I thought the ♠s were 3(W)-4, as they were, and I was pretty sure that ♣ were 3-2, which I didn't think gave me any indication of how the 7-7 red cards were split) and when ♥10 didn't fall by the third round I went down.

As the cards lie, it seems that this defence kills the red-suit squeeze, and with it the contract, whenever the ♥ is played up, so though my timing probably wasn't optimal it wasn't crucial.

The hand was played in slam at 6 tables out of 15 (the other 9 were in 3NT), with four making, two after the ♥2 lead to ♥J and E's ♥Q: one of those declarers played up to ♦Q and the other made when W discarded a ♥ on the last ♣.

The other two successful declarers had ♠8 as the opening lead; one led up to ♥J, and made on the squeeze when E returned a ♦ and declarer went up with ♦A; the other played ♥J from dummy, and, after E covered, later played up to ♦Q.

The other declarer to go down also had the ♠9 lead, and also led up to ♥J, but by then had already played ♠A & K and all the ♣, leaving the bare ♦A in hand: E was then able to exit with a ♠ to dummy's Q, allowing W to discard ♦K and keep the ♥.

[johnu]

akwoo, on 2024-February-25, 20:31, said:

I think the best line is to win the spade in hand and lead a low heart to the board. If the QH is on your left, you have 12 tricks assuming clubs split. If not, and RHO fails to return a heart, you have set up the Vienna Coup in the red suits (if either defender has both the long hearts and the K of diamonds). (If RHO returns a low heart, I think you put in the 9 and hope.)

I agree up to the point where RHO returns a low heart. Finessing the ♥9 is basically a 50% chance. I think it is markedly better to play for the drop, 3/7 x chance of hearts 4-3, plus 2/7 x chance of hearts 5-2. If ♥10 doesn't drop, then play for a positional red suit squeeze making if East has ♦K and ♥10.

[akwoo]

PeterAlan, on 2024-February-26, 16:51, said:

The hand was played in slam at 6 tables out of 15 (the other 9 were in 3NT), with four making, two after the ♥2 lead to ♥J and E's ♥Q: one of those declarers played up to ♦Q and the other made when W discarded a ♥ on the last ♣.

I'll point out that, if that defender hadn't discard a ♥, they would've been thrown in with it and forced to lead away from the K.

The question, though, is whether those declarers should actually duck trick 1 and hope East doesn't return a heart, giving the same squeeze.