[lamford]

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I could have made this and think I chose the wrong line. We bid 1H-1S-2NT-3NT for better or for worse. West leads the 3C, attitude.

[mikeh]

This is a tough hand precisely because there is often a winning line but it may not be the percentage line….although I’m not good enough to be able to estimate relative percentages in any length of time feasible at the table (and in long matches, I have no trouble spending up to ten minutes to play to trick one!).

We have, to put it mildly, serious communication problems combined with options in the heart suit.

I think I’m going to have to assume that the club queen is onside (a very good bet given the lead) and that east holds at least one ace.

On that basis, I win in hand and play hearts from the top, pitching a spade and two diamonds if I have to play four rounds to drive out the queen….if I have to play five rounds, pitch another spade.

Im not going further here, although I have worked out tentative plans for most contingencies. There are simply two many branches for me to feel comfortable that I’ve got everything worked out plus I’d be writing for another half hour!

Tell me what happens in hearts…how do they break, who wins the queen and what do they play when they do?

One point that I think (hope?) is both important and instructional (only if I’m right!) is that one should avoid hoping for 3=3 hearts with the queen onside. One could, as an example, win the king of clubs in hand, take a club hook at trick 2, cash the ace, then play the heart 9 to the Jack, hoping to win 6 hearts and three clubs, and often making an overtrick. But the hoped for heart break is less than 18%, and that’s offset by an about 10% chance of LHO holding stiff queen or Qx. Thus even if we assume the club hook is a certainty, we’re basically increasing our chances of winning 6 heart tricks by less than 10% and, in the process screwing up transportation and setting up club winners for the defence.

When one sees a low probability, although easy, line…don’t take it until you’ve considered as many alternate options as your skill level permits.

[Gilithin]

mikeh, on 2023-May-28, 09:28, said:

Tell me what happens in hearts…how do they break, who wins the queen and what do they play when they do?

One point that I think (hope?) is both important and instructional (only if I’m right!) is that one should avoid hoping for 3=3 hearts with the queen onside. One could, as an example, win the king of clubs in hand, take a club hook at trick 2, cash the ace, then play the heart 9 to the Jack, hoping to win 6 hearts and three clubs, and often making an overtrick. But the hoped for heart break is less than 18%, and that’s offset by an about 10% chance of LHO holding stiff queen or Qx. Thus even if we assume the club hook is a certainty, we’re basically increasing our chances of winning 6 heart tricks by less than 10% and, in the process screwing up transportation and setting up club winners for the defence.

If you were going to play for 3-3 hearts onside, a safer way would surely be to take the ace immediately and then play to the ♥10, playing for 1♠, 6♥ and 2♣. That looks to me like quite a tempting line despite your vehement opposition to it, since there are still chances even if the hearts don't behave. If I understand the hand, RHO will contribute the ♣8 to trick 1 and will take the third heart with the queen. Paul will have to help on what they lead next but I suspect it is probably the ♦Q.

[mikeh]

Gilithin, on 2023-June-02, 05:19, said:

If you were going to play for 3-3 hearts onside, a safer way would surely be to take the ace immediately and then play to the ♥10, playing for 1♠, 6♥ and 2♣. That looks to me like quite a tempting line despite your vehement opposition to it, since there are still chances even if the hearts don't behave. If I understand the hand, RHO will contribute the ♣8 to trick 1 and will take the third heart with the queen. Paul will have to help on what they lead next but I suspect it is probably the ♦Q.

Vehement is a bit of an overbid😀

It’s just that I don’t especially hold out much hope for precisely Qxx onside (ignoring the slight effect of clubs possibly being 6-2 or 5-3, it’s less than 18, and the effect of West having more clubs than does RHO reduces it further). As for knowing which club east plays or that east switches to the diamond queen, I don’t understand the logic at all. If you fly the ace of clubs at trick one, and east wins a late heart, he’ll return clubs and now you’re down if clubs are 5-3 or any time west holds either side ace. So you’re opting for a roughly 16-17% line. I can’t calculate the odds of my line but my sense is that it’s better than that. However, I may be wrong and, in any event, sometimes mathematically inferior lines work. Which is one reason we enjoy the game as much as we do: otherwise a less skilled player would never get a good board against a better player.

Anyway, I’m happy to see another idea being put forward. It seems that few feel comfortable or interested in complex play problems

[AL78]

mikeh, on 2023-June-02, 08:54, said:

Anyway, I’m happy to see another idea being put forward. It seems that few feel comfortable or interested in complex play problems

I have to admit I would have been tempted with going up with the ace and playing a heart to the ten. I didn't fancy posting on this thread because a) I'm not exactly known for my expert declarer play and b) I frequently feel out of my depth and in a lower league with play problems on here. These are the sorts of situations I struggle with at the table, plausible lines A,B and C, what layouts work for each line and what is the probability of those layouts based on the known information.

[mikeh]

AL78, on 2023-June-02, 15:57, said:

I have to admit I would have been tempted with going up with the ace and playing a heart to the ten. I didn't fancy posting on this thread because a) I'm not exactly known for my expert declarer play and b) I frequently feel out of my depth and in a lower league with play problems on here. These are the sorts of situations I struggle with at the table, plausible lines A,B and C, what layouts work for each line and what is the probability of those layouts based on the known information.

Almost everyone struggles when there are multiple options and the relative percentages are either very hard to estimate and/or we have to speculate as to how the defence will play once or if we give them the lead

Adding to the difficulty is understanding that sometimes the defenders can’t be sure what’s going on either, so one can take a ‘losing’ line and survive.

I’m probably one of the stronger declarers posting in this forum and I am very unsure as to which line is either or both the most mathematically sound and the one most likely to induce or at least not dissuade misdefence (which itsel may not actually be misdefence but gives us the contract anyway)

Apart from reading and practice, a useful way to improve is to take advantage of the fact that you have no time pressure here, unlike at the table. So think of a line, then think about how it may fail. Then think of a line that works against that scenario. Then try to estimate the relative likelihood of the distributions your line caters to.

It helps to have a basic understanding of common suit break probabilities. Indeed, I don’t see how anyone has any hope of being a decent player without internalizing at least the basics.

So 3-3 is, in a vacuum, 35.5%. A finesse is, again in a vacuum, 50%. So 3-3 with the queen onside is 17.75%

3-2, otoh, is 68.5%, so if your line (not on this hand of course) involves picking up that suit….say AKJxx opposite xxx, your chances are a hair over 34.25%. Why? Because you cash a top card first, gaining when LHO has a stiff Queen…a tiny edge but no good player would ignore it.

Make it AKJ10xx opposite xx and the odds of the suit being 3-2 with the queen onside remain the same but no good player, absent significant information, would cash a top card…because by hooking twice we also pick up Qxxx onside, which is far more likely than xxxx onside.

And so on. If you don’t yet feel that this sort of thing is semi-automatic, get hold of a book on card combinations and/or suit break probabilities (Richard Pavilchek’s website is great for the latter)

If you think that doing this is too much work, then resign yourself to never getting much better. Learning to play well takes work…for most of us (definitely including me) playing well is hard work…and not just at the table. The vast majority of club players lack this level of knowledge and still enjoy the game (although some complain about having to play against ‘the heavyweights’)

[AL78]

mikeh, on 2023-June-02, 17:04, said:

Almost everyone struggles when there are multiple options and the relative percentages are either very hard to estimate and/or we have to speculate as to how the defence will play once or if we give them the lead

Adding to the difficulty is understanding that sometimes the defenders can’t be sure what’s going on either, so one can take a ‘losing’ line and survive.

I’m probably one of the stronger declarers posting in this forum and I am very unsure as to which line is either or both the most mathematically sound and the one most likely to induce or at least not dissuade misdefence (which itsel may not actually be misdefence but gives us the contract anyway)

Apart from reading and practice, a useful way to improve is to take advantage of the fact that you have no time pressure here, unlike at the table. So think of a line, then think about how it may fail. Then think of a line that works against that scenario. Then try to estimate the relative likelihood of the distributions your line caters to.

It helps to have a basic understanding of common suit break probabilities. Indeed, I don’t see how anyone has any hope of being a decent player without internalizing at least the basics.

So 3-3 is, in a vacuum, 35.5%. A finesse is, again in a vacuum, 50%. So 3-3 with the queen onside is 17.75%

3-2, otoh, is 68.5%, so if your line (not on this hand of course) involves picking up that suit….say AKJxx opposite xxx, your chances are a hair over 34.25%. Why? Because you cash a top card first, gaining when LHO has a stiff Queen…a tiny edge but no good player would ignore it.

Make it AKJ10xx opposite xx and the odds of the suit being 3-2 with the queen onside remain the same but no good player, absent significant information, would cash a top card…because by hooking twice we also pick up Qxxx onside, which is far more likely than xxxx onside.

And so on. If you don’t yet feel that this sort of thing is semi-automatic, get hold of a book on card combinations and/or suit break probabilities (Richard Pavilchek’s website is great for the latter)

If you think that doing this is too much work, then resign yourself to never getting much better. Learning to play well takes work…for most of us (definitely including me) playing well is hard work…and not just at the table. The vast majority of club players lack this level of knowledge and still enjoy the game (although some complain about having to play against ‘the heavyweights’)

Those combinations I know, and have a fair grasp of suit combination probabilities in general. Your examples are fundamental. I also appreciate the odds change when opponents have given information about their hands in the bidding. I remember once my partner (West) was in a slam when North had pre-empted at the three level. The slam required picking up the queen of trumps with a nine card fit. If I had been declarer, I would have cashed a top honor in hand and finessed South playing him for Qxx. Partner took the eight-ever-nine-never line and dropped Qx with North. Sometimes the most likely play doesn't work.

The problem I have is, if we take the OP hand, working out probabilities of several combinations where the probabilities are not independent, such as playing the jack at trick one, what is the chance of it holding, if it does play a heart to the ten, if it wins cash hearts from the top, if it loses I have the hearts set up but I have an awkward blockage in clubs, how do I need the spades to lie, is there any danger if East gets in and pushes a diamond through, do I go up with the king or play low, while I am doing all this have the opponents established enough clubs to set the contract? One thing that is clear is we need to use the hearts if we are making 3NT. An expert can go through all that as routine, it is like muiscle memory to them. I sometimes get stuck trying to piece all the possible combinations together and with limited time at the table end up just going with one that looks best at the time. Same issue in defence, do I play for layout A and lead card B which is best or do I play for layout C and lead card D which is best, where either layout is possible on the bidding and carding so far, but if I get it wrong I blow the defence. It is a pity there aren't a set of BridgeMaster hands which cover defence.

[gszes]

Sigh I hate to admit this but after winning trick 1 with the club A I would exit with the heart T. I realize this play loses a tiny amount of the time when playing hearts from the top would bring in 9 tricks when the Q is singleton or doubleton. I hate the idea of squeezing dummy and giving the opps the opportunity to signal. I feel the odds of the opps returning hearts is minimal (whomever wins the heart Q) and anything else they do runs the risk (to them) of yielding an extra trick for me. Who knows maybe lho will even duck Qxx of hearts:) ok let me have it.

[LBengtsson]

Interesting discussion, and having looked at this a few times, I am now appreciating how difficult this is +1 to lamford. If the ♣3 is attitude, then that should mean LHO has the ♣Q. I am tempted to play the ♣J here and then take the ♥ finesse. The problem with this hand is declarer can end up squeezing dummy and get endplayed himself. It is indeed a tough hand.

[Gilithin]

LBengtsson, on 2023-June-06, 16:46, said:

Interesting discussion, and having looked at this a few times, I am now appreciating how difficult this is +1 to lamford. If the ♣3 is attitude, then that should mean LHO has the ♣Q.

10 to 5 or 6 is also quite possible, in which case playing AK rather than the jack is necessary. It is indeed not easy - these boards miss Rainer badly on such hands.

[LBengtsson]

Gilithin, on 2023-June-06, 23:54, said:

10 to 5 or 6 is also quite possible, in which case playing AK rather than the jack is necessary. It is indeed not easy - these boards miss Rainer badly on such hands.

I have always played attitude leads to mean that I have a long suit and a honor against a NT contract (although other partnerships may play it differently). The more I look at this hand, the more difficult it gets. It will be interesting to see what the right line was.

[Gilithin]

LBengtsson, on 2023-June-07, 23:30, said:

I have always played attitude leads to mean that I have a long suit and a honor against a NT contract (although other partnerships may play it differently). The more I look at this hand, the more difficult it gets. It will be interesting to see what the right line was.

The hand record is available online and I already posted that RHO has ♥Qxx so all the simple lines work. I am less interested in what works for this specific hand as opposed to what is best over all. Sometimes a top declarer fails when a little old lady taking a straightforward finesse succeeds. I suspect this may be one of those hands. I would rather like to improve my declarer play enough to go down on these!