[pigpenz]

awm, on 2018-April-18, 04:56, said:

The most likely shapes are 3433 for declarer and 4243 for opener if you assume partner has a decent hand (which you need in order to set).

The reason is that partner would overcall 1♠ with five and a decent hand. So that marks partner with four spades and declarer three. Since declarer has a pretty bad hand (since partner has a good hand) he could have passed 1♠ with three and didn’t. With any doubleton he’d be likely to pass, so 3433 is a favorite. If partner has six clubs he would surely bid, even with 4135/4225 he might bid as a NV passed hand. So it’s likely partner has only four clubs, which gives opener three. Opener could be 4153 but then partner has 4324 which would often be a takeout double as a passed hand.

So if we know the shapes, what to lead? It seems like we should lead one of our seven card fits and that’s either heart or club. It will depend on the honor layout in these suits though.

so using your assumptions for the hands
3♣-23.60%
7♣-23.60%
5♥-19.50%
k♣-18.90%
Q♠-18.70%
7♥-18.70%
5♠-18.10%


then drop off to 16%-10% for rest

on another layout the winning lead was the Phil-GIB Q♠ LOL

[rmnka447]

Think a little about the auction.

Opener has bid 1 ♦, then 1 ♠, but did not support ♥. 1 ♦ implies ♦ are equal in length or longer than ♣. If opener is opening a 3 card ♦ suit, then opener's major holding is usually 4-4. But opener didn't support ♥ which would be natural if 4-4 in the majors. So it's very likely that opener has at least 4 ♦ and, of course, bid 1 ♠ so has 4 ♠.

Responder has bid 1 ♥, then 1 NT. Responder does not have 4 ♠ else a raise to 2 ♠ would be normal. Responder also has not bid 2 ♥ which might well be bid holding 5 ♥ (no surprise). Responder has also not preferenced back to 2 ♦ which might occur if holding 4 ♦.

Finally over 1 NT, opener passed, so is unlikely to hold 4 ♣ as 2 ♣ would be normal with a 4-1-4-4 or 4-0-5-4 hand.

Partner didn't overcall 1 ♠ which might occur if partner has a modicum of points and 5+ decent ♠. Since you hold 2 ♠ and responder has less than 4, partner has at least 4 ♠. Lacking that overcall by partner, they may pretty puny if holding 5 of them. Partner seems more likely to hold 4 ♠, giving responder 3 ♠.

So responder is likely to hold 6 minor cards but not 4 ♦ and the hand could be could be 3-4-3-3 or 3-4-2-4. Occasionally, responder might bid 1 NT with a 3-4-1-5 hand with nothing better to bid.

Leading low from 5 ♥ into RHO known 4 card suit doesn't look particularly attractive as it is more likely to give something away. With the lack of a ♠ overcall, ♠ aren't too attractive either. A ♦ lead might be disastrous if opener has 5 ♦. So sort of by default, we come to a ♣ lead. It might be a terrific start if we catch opener and responder with 6 or fewer ♣ between them.

I'd be leading ♣ 3.

But the important thing is to listen to the bidding especially the bids not made and you can start to form a picture of the opponent's hands.

[pigpenz]

from looking at hands generated, there is only about a 20% chance of beating 1NT
so we are looking at the safest lead to hold 1NT to making(matchpoints)