[lamford]

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There are 52 cards in a pack, and 52 net IMPs (gain+loss) were at stake on two consecutive boards of the Zimmerman Cup final. Look over Meckstroth's shoulder and advise him here how to play 6NT on the ten of spades lead (high from a doubleton).

[nige1]

lamford, on 2018-February-23, 19:24, said:

There are 52 cards in a pack, and 52 net IMPs (gain+loss) were at stake on two consecutive boards of the Zimmerman Cup final. Look over Meckstroth's shoulder and advise him here how to play 6NT on the ten of spades lead (high from a doubleton).

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Thank you Paul. Guess: Win ♠A. Cash ♣AK because If ♣ break 2-2, you are home (7 x ♣ + 2 X ♦ + 1 X ♥ + 2 X ♠).
When ♣ are 3-1, concede a ♣, presumably to South, chucking a ♠. Win the ♦ return with ♦A. Cash ♠K, throwing a ♥. Cross to ♦K. Cash ♣s, hoping for a show-up double-squeeze.

[lamford]

nige1, on 2018-February-23, 19:56, said:

Thank you Paul. Guess: Win ♠A. Cash ♣AK because If ♣ break 2-2, you are home (7 x ♣ + 2 X ♦ + 1 X ♥ + 2 X ♠).
When ♣ are 3-1, concede a ♣, presumably to South. Win the ♦ return with ♦A. Cash ♠K. Cross to ♦K. Cash ♣s, hoping for a show-up double-squeeze.

That will only work if North cannot guard against the five of diamonds, as in the three-card ending, you have to throw the spade and then the ten of diamonds, and South can guard hearts and North has a diamond guard. You will almost always need the king of hearts onside. You will always make it when it is onside I think as North will be simple squeezed.

[nige1]

lamford, on 2018-February-23, 20:09, said:

That will only work if North cannot guard against the five of diamonds, as in the three-card ending, you have to throw the spade and then the ten of diamonds, and South can guard hearts and North has a diamond guard. You will almost always need the king of hearts onside. You will always make it when it is onside I think as North will be simple squeezed.

True. I hope to take advantage of the slight chance that North is dealt, say
♠Q x x x x x ♥ J x x x ♦ Q x ♣ Q

[lamford]

nige1, on 2018-February-23, 20:30, said:

True. I hope to take advantage of the slight chance that North is dealt, say
♠Q x x x x x ♥ J x x x ♦ Q x ♣ Q

Yes, but what I think is the best line still works with that layout.

[smerriman]

Being in the expert forum, I'm guessing South holds the heart King and clubs aren't 2-2.

Also, being in the expert forum, I'm going to allow myself the use of the GIB button while playing around with hands, since I'm not an expert

If South does indeed hold the heart king, it seems that the contract can always be made by ducking a club immediately (even if clubs are 2-2) - and in most cases this is the only line that works.

Assuming a diamond is returned, we win with the Ace, then run clubs. On the last club, North has to keep SQx and two other cards.

If North keeps two diamonds, then we have to discard the heart Queen and play to the heart Ace; the spade K then squeezes south in hearts and diamonds, with the 9 of hearts the threat.

If North keeps two hearts, we have to discard the spade Jack. Then again South gets squeezed in hearts and diamonds, but this time with the Q of hearts the threat.

I'm not sure how easy it is to tell what North has kept though.

Also, if North wins the first club and immediately returns a heart, instead of a diamond, the contract is still makeable - by playing the Ace and working on another squeeze. But this line fails immediately if North had the King of hearts after all, which seems to imply ducking a club is too dangerous compared with a line like nige1's..

[MrAce]

I would whisper to Jeff to win the ♠A and duck a club to keep entries that we need for double squeeze. We will be losing a trick when clubs are 2-2 but if i am not wrong we will guarantee 12 tricks after that.

[lamford]

MrAce, on 2018-February-23, 22:14, said:

I would whisper to Jeff to win the ♠A and duck a club to keep entries that we need for double squeeze. We will be losing a trick when clubs are 2-2 but if i am not wrong we will guarantee 12 tricks after that.

I would have played the same line as you Timo, so we should have a game some time. In particular if South has to win the first club, and returns a diamond, you win with the ace and head for this ending, and you must avoid cashing any major suit winners.

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Now we pitch the QH on the last club and both defenders are toast. If North comes down to Qx Kx in the majors, however, we need to pitch the ten of diamonds, and then cash a diamond to squeeze him, so we do have to read the ending.

[gszes]

lamford, on 2018-February-24, 02:49, said:

I would have played the same line as you Timo, so we should have a game some time. In particular if South has to win the first club, and returns a diamond, you win with the ace and head for this ending, and you must avoid cashing any major suit winners.

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Now we pitch the QH on the last club and both defenders are toast. If North comes down to Qx Kx in the majors, however, we need to pitch the ten of diamonds, and then cash a diamond to squeeze him, so we do have to read the ending.

I stared at this trying like crazy trying to figure out WHY this is effective. I can picture the end position and how reading the position can allow one to make no matter which opp holds which cards so from that aspect I understand why this LOP looks decent. I have to ask this though. Even though this lop allows one to make 6 (with a proper read of the end position) why is this not the exact end position that is achieved if one plays the clubs from the top? Assuming south wins the 3rd club and returns a diamond? No matter how hard I try I cannot see the benefit of ducking a club when a 22 break allows me to play for an overtrick.

[Phil]

Let's say we try Paul's line of ducking the club. The only layout where this is necessary is when RHO has Jxx. When RHO has other three club holdings, it does not matter.

When clubs are 2-2 or RHO has the stiff J and not xx, RHO will be able to win and play a heart through. If we guess that RHO has 0-2 diamonds or ♦QJ, I have a double (or triple) squeeze, but otherwise I have a nasty guess between a heart hook / squeeze and I would feel pretty stupid going down when clubs were 2-2 and the heart hook was on all along.

Note that if dummy had the ♦9, a club duck is a lot more appealing because we would have extra chances for a guard squeeze when RHO had either diamond honor.

Another note is that we should drop the ♠J at T1. The spade J is not needed as a threat, and we might entice RHO to continue spades if he were to win a club.

[lamford]

gszes, on 2018-February-24, 12:04, said:

I stared at this trying like crazy trying to figure out WHY this is effective. I can picture the end position and how reading the position can allow one to make no matter which opp holds which cards so from that aspect I understand why this LOP looks decent. I have to ask this though. Even though this lop allows one to make 6 (with a proper read of the end position) why is this not the exact end position that is achieved if one plays the clubs from the top? Assuming south wins the 3rd club and returns a diamond? No matter how hard I try I cannot see the benefit of ducking a club when a 22 break allows me to play for an overtrick.

If you play the clubs from the top, you cannot make it when South has the king of hearts. If you duck a club, you can always make it if you read the position. If North wins and plays a heart, you can finesse or rise and play the double squeeze. The latter is a bit better. If South wins a club then he has to play a diamond and you go for the criss-cross above and if you can read the ending you are gin. Ducking a club is necessary to avoid using the crucial king of diamonds in dummy.

[smerriman]

lamford, on 2018-February-24, 17:07, said:

If you play the clubs from the top, you cannot make it when South has the king of hearts. If you duck a club, you can always make it if you read the position. If North wins and plays a heart, you can finesse or rise and play the double squeeze. The latter is a bit better.

But surely as I mentioned initially, this will happen too often to make it worthwhile? While you can still make the contract, you're down to a 50/50 shot at best on guessing the heart King immediately (less if you can't guarantee reading the squeeze position) if North has any club honor (singleton/doubleton/doesn't matter); compared with the original line which works if clubs are 2-2 OR the heart king is onside.

[lamford]

North will probably not put in the jack from Jx but even if he does South has to win the first club 30% of the time. He has to play a diamond and you are cold as long as you read the ending. The opponents defending against a squeeze will card honestly I think. If you play AK of clubs you are around 64%. If you duck a club you are cold if South wins and if North wins and plays a heart you are cold if you rise and South has the heart king. I make that about 69%. A bit less if you misread the ending a bit more if North does not fly from Jx of clubs

[gszes]

lamford, on 2018-February-24, 17:07, said:

If you play the clubs from the top, you cannot make it when South has the king of hearts. If you duck a club, you can always make it if you read the position. If North wins and plays a heart, you can finesse or rise and play the double squeeze. The latter is a bit better. If South wins a club then he has to play a diamond and you go for the criss-cross above and if you can read the ending you are gin. Ducking a club is necessary to avoid using the crucial king of diamonds in dummy.

I remember this now sigh i was ticked off at yet another problem with NT instead of playing in my longgggggggggggggggg minor suit. I was envisioning the same end position in 6c not NT sorry all for the confusion in 6n the dia k will be gone but not so in 6c where there is an easy spade ruff reentry to hand.

[lamford]

Phil, on 2018-February-24, 12:40, said:

Let's say we try Paul's line of ducking the club. The only layout where this is necessary is when RHO has Jxx. When RHO has other three club holdings, it does not matter.

I don't think this is right at all. It is necessary to duck a club whenever they are not 2-2 and South has the king of hearts. In fact ducking a club makes the contract whenever it can be made - if and this is a big if - you read the position. Cashing the clubs from the top makes around 64% of the time, when the clubs are 2-2 or when the king of hearts is onside.