[Phil]

IMPs - critical final swiss match

mmy:

AK62
J4
T953
763

............QT54
............Q9763
............4
............A52

1N 2C 2D 2N 3N

IN is 15-17

Partner leads the cT. This will be from a 4 card holding or longer headed by the J or KJ, KT9, T9x, or shorter.

You hop Ace and declarer drops the Q.

What next?

[Winstonm]

Phil, on 2017-February-08, 06:57, said:

IMPs - critical final swiss match

mmy:

AK62
J4
T953
763

............QT54
............Q9763
............4
............A52

1N 2C 2D 2N 3N

IN is 15-17

Partner leads the cT. This will be from a 4 card holding or longer headed by the J or KJ, KT9, T9x, or shorter.

You hop Ace and declarer drops the Q.

What next?

The hand for declarer that makes most sense to me in light of the bidding is: Jxx, Axx, AKxxx, KQ. I really wanted to find a hand where it was critical to switch to a heart, but those seemed too unlikely. although a falsecard with the Q is certainly possible. A really good declarer might even play the Q from Qx, hoping to feign strength in the club suit - although for that to matter here declarer would have to be 2262.

It feels wrong, but I think the right play is believe the Q a true card from KQ tight and to return a club.

[Kaitlyn S]

Winstonm, on 2017-February-08, 18:48, said:

It feels wrong, but I think the right play is believe the Q a true card from KQ tight and to return a club.

I came to the same conclusion.

[Winstonm]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-February-08, 20:35, said:

I came to the same conclusion.

I always knew you were smart - just misguided.

[Phil]

Winstonm, on 2017-February-08, 18:48, said:

The hand for declarer that makes most sense to me in light of the bidding is: Jxx, Axx, AKxxx, KQ.

You can also shift to a heart on this layout.

[Winstonm]

Phil, on 2017-February-08, 22:42, said:

You can also shift to a heart on this layout.

But if declarer has 2 club trick and 2 spade tricks, he has to have 5 diamond tricks, perhaps Jxx, xx, AKQxx, KQJ, but I assumed in that case partner may not have led 10 of clubs. I thought it as likely that a heart switch would present declarer with a chance for his 9th trick with a hand like xxx, Kxx, AKQxx, KQ

[Phil]

Winstonm, on 2017-February-09, 00:04, said:

But if declarer has 2 club trick and 2 spade tricks, he has to have 5 diamond tricks, perhaps Jxx, xx, AKQxx, KQJ, but I assumed in that case partner may not have led 10 of clubs. I thought it as likely that a heart switch would present declarer with a chance for his 9th trick with a hand like xxx, Kxx, AKQxx, KQ

Well, if partner led the wrong honor it will be a long ride home

xxx Kxx AKQxx KQ looks like an upgrade out of 1N to me?

Ill stop nitpicking. I waffled between hands with open clubs: xxx Ax AKQxxx Qx and hands with open hearts xx xxx AKQxxx KQ and figured the former was 6x more likely. At least.

Declarer had the latter.

Should partner track a heart with Jxx AKx xx JTxxx?

[Winstonm]

Phil, on 2017-February-09, 10:19, said:

Well, if partner led the wrong honor it will be a long ride home

xxx Kxx AKQxx KQ looks like an upgrade out of 1N to me?

Ill stop nitpicking. I waffled between hands with open clubs: xxx Ax AKQxxx Qx and hands with open hearts xx xxx AKQxxx KQ and figured the former was 6x more likely. At least.

Declarer had the latter.

Should partner track a heart with Jxx AKx xx JTxxx?

That's a good question and I'm not quite sure. Can we analyze the win/lose position of leading a heart honor? It would be really questionable to lead an honor from AK10 in this auction, but AKx does not seem so problematic.

I appreciate your problem as defender but I don't know if there is a genuine solution other than a different (not necessarily better) lead convention. I always remember that Hamman wrote about really hating lead conventions that give away too much information.

But I have yet to win a board against Hamman, so I need more information that he does, it seems.

[Phil]

Yeah we joked about how awesome jack denies is after the hand. Joe Kivel insists on them when we play.

[Winstonm]

Phil, on 2017-February-09, 11:12, said:

Yeah we joked about how awesome jack denies is after the hand. Joe Kivel insists on them when we play.

I certainly feel for your problem. I would not have made the right play at the table. Don't know if that helps.

[rmnka447]

On this auction, opener rates to have a minor hand 5-3-3-2, 4-4-3-2 (both minors), or even a 4-3-3-3 (4 card minor). So leading a minor is more dangerous on this auction.

♥ might be our suit, but Q9xxx takes quite a bit in partner's hand to make the switch right. The opening lead has also removed our entry for long tricks in ♥ anyhow.

OTOH, ♣ Q looks like a real card probably from KQ. If declarer is smart enough to false card from KQJ to induce a ♣ return, I'll tip my hat to him/her after the hand.

Think I'll apply the Fred Will principle on this hand. I'll be more comfortable explaining returning a ♣ versus an unsure ♥ switch in the post mortem. Like Fred would have said "If my partner leads a suit, I return partner's suit unless there's a darn good reason to do otherwise."

[Phil]

Good point about the club suit. On this auction it seems very likely partner has a very good holding.