[diana_eva]

This poll shows a number of players I consider better than myself thinking that it's not a good idea to balance. I thought it was a clear bid there.

How about this hand? Still IMPs at teams. I think it's clear to bid here as well, although this hand seems better than the other one so perhaps this time it is normal to bid.

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I am missing the core logic I guess. When and why to not interfere, what's normal and what isn't?

[apollo1201]

Dear Diana, I would consider you as a good and thoughtful player based on your contributions. I would balance I guess, not a fan of Kx but lots of nice intermediaries.

The 2 threads about this 1h 1nt 2h trigger thos additional question to the board: what is required to bid 2s directly and not in the balancing seat?

[mike777]

Keep in mind on both auctions the opp do not have a proven fit.

hearts can be 6-0
the opp may have 7spades between them.

I guess the core logic is the opp do not have a proven fit.
1nt bidder may have zero hearts.
Also at imps you don't want to go for a number.
edit

2h may not even promise 6h 100%
say 4=5=2=2 and a minimum hand.

[yunling]

What about just bid 2S in the previous round? I think the risk of getting penalized is less than balancing now (and you are more likely to gain if opps are bidding on air)

[Jinksy]

I wasn't sure on the last hand, but I think I'd bid here. My hand is stronger, shorter holding in their suit seems more relevant than more points wasted in it, and the K has way more potential to be an actual trick than the Q.

[helene_t]

I would balance but I don't consider it clear. Nonvul or mps and passing would be a crime.

[mcphee]

Diana, lets gather the facts. Partner has passed 1H although may not be broke, he may also not be so rich. RHO bid a FNT is assume, so bidding now is high risk really. LHO repeats H and convinces me he hold the K (ya think?),which makes my K look like the 2. Reviewing information I ask if you think your side has any chance for game? Is it possible due to partners H lenght (3+ cards you supect)they were unable to act and hold values for game when you K of H is down the drain? Now almost the last question, could your action risk minus 500? What suit could they lead that is good for you? There is no reward bidding now imho, and I am rather aggresive.

[PhilKing]

OK try this one, which I had in a practice match a few weeks ago. Game all, quite good opposition (Bertheau/Hallberg):

♠KQJ62
♥542
♦QJ9
♣KQ

Obviously it starts 1♥-p-1NT. Do you overcall? Do you intend to balance if 2♣/♦/♥ come back to you ...

I believe you have to be ultra cautious when you have the death holding in hearts. Anyway, if you overcall 2♠ directly it gets whacked for 800. If you pass, it goes 2♣-p-3♣ and declarer scrambles 9 tricks with neat play (he has bid 2♣ on a decent 4513 hand).

[diana_eva]

Yep, starting to reconsider my WTP balancing actions.

[Jinksy]

PhilKing, on 2015-May-24, 07:40, said:

OK try this one, which I had in a practice match a few weeks ago. Game all, quite good opposition (Bertheau/Hallberg):

♠KQJ62
♥542
♦QJ9
♣KQ

Obviously it starts 1♥-p-1NT. Do you overcall? Do you intend to balance if 2♣/♦/♥ come back to you ...

I believe you have to be ultra cautious when you have the death holding in hearts. Anyway, if you overcall 2♠ directly it gets whacked for 800. If you pass, it goes 2♣-p-3♣ and declarer scrambles 9 tricks with neat play (he has bid 2♣ on a decent 4513 hand).

Not that XXX looks like any kind of plus, but isn't it significantly worse when hearts were bid to your right? Here you might still hope to find some working points in your side's heart suit (though I certainly would not overcall first round on this hand).

[Gerben42]

diana_eva, on 2015-May-23, 14:36, said:

This poll shows a number of players I consider better than myself thinking that it's not a good idea to balance. I thought it was a clear bid there.

How about this hand? Still IMPs at teams. I think it's clear to bid here as well, although this hand seems better than the other one so perhaps this time it is normal to bid.

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I am missing the core logic I guess. When and why to not interfere, what's normal and what isn't?

To me it's still a pass. Your ♥ length is better now, three is the worst for a suit which has not be raised. However, ♥K is a terrible value in front of the 6-card suit.

The main idea however is: If they have a fit, we probably have a fit. Therefore after 1♥ p 2♥ this hand is automatic 2♠. However if they don't have a fit, we also probably don't.

Let's see why that is. If they have 8 ♥ then we have 5. The only suit distribution where we have no fit is 5-7-7-7.

Also why ♥K is so terrible: Both opponents have a limited hand, suggesting HCP might be about 20-20. If we assume HCP are 20-20, then every HCP we have reduces partner's HCP. Since ♥K is likely to be worthless, the same hand with ♥2 instead of ♥K would be a BETTER balancing 2♠ bid than the actual hand. For one thing it could mean that partner has your ♥K, in which case he might be making a trick with it. Or he could have ♠K instead of your ♥K which would be even better.

So how to apply this knowledge. We are supposed to bid 2-over-2 if there are at least 15 tricks in the hand, therefore we need 15 trumps. This seems about right. However, from "I beat the law" logic, if HCP are 20-20 and we only count ♥K for 1/3, they are virtually 18-22 against us. This means that the 8th trick most likely belongs to the opponents and we can at best improve -110 to -100.

However there could also be less than 15 trumps, or our fit might be in a minor. This is where things get worse and make this hand into a clear pass.

Even though 2♥ seems favorite to make, there are too many hands that would lead to -200 or worse in 2♠.

[diana_eva]

Thanks. I needed this spelled out.

Here's the full hand. Even though I had caught partner with a 5-card fit, we still make only 7 tricks. Opps bid to 3H, but the other table competed to 3S and went -2:

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[jodepp]

I agree with the 'nay' respondents, especially at IMPs. Most have stated there's too much risk in 2♠ and not enough upside, especially partnering a North capable of competing to 3♠ on that tripe. North can see you didn't overcall 2S directly, so that 3♠ call is simply asking to lose IMPs.

At matchpoints, one probably takes the 'what the he%$# it's only matchpoints' approach and plunks 2♠ on the table, but only with the caveat of North being trustworthy enough not to get carried away.

[runewell]

I'm bidding 2♠ directly over 1NT. Even though my ♥K is suspect, it takes up bidding room.
It could very well buy the auction.

[gszes]

I would much rather see x over 1n than pass. Surely game chances seem somewhat remote after p passes 1h. That means we should be aiming for the safest overall contract at the 2 level and we have no strong reason to assume it is spades. The heart K is poorly placed but there is still a chance the cards are split 2020 and if we have a fit the best way to find it is x right away. Even if lho can xx p will pass with no special distribution and we will get a 2s bid in. X will either allow us to find a fit at the 2 level or at worst a much better than minimal fit at the 3 level. That is a lot of extra flexibility for very little overall risk since the opps have not had the opportunity to fully define their values.
I notice no one else has suggested this so just consider it another example of the minority report.

[neilkaz]

runewell, on 2015-May-26, 17:51, said:

I'm bidding 2♠ directly over 1NT. Even though my ♥K is suspect, it takes up bidding room.
It could very well buy the auction.

That or X initially. I'd bid 2♠ with this suit.

[mike777]

amazing no matter what people love to bid with this hand....


great thread

[Phil]

I wouldn't balance on either hand at IMPs unless I was playing against pretty weak opponents but I would overcall 2♠ at MPs. Make sure you take a glance at their cc to see if they are playing Flannery.

- The opponents are in a relative misfit, which means our chances of a fit are diminished.
- Our ♥K is very suspect.
- Our hand is flat.

Against that, this hand has decent texture (unlike PhilK's) and I wouldn't expect to get lit up.

[adamw]

I wish I knew! I was faced with a similar decision recently, playing IMPs:

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I passed both times. We could have defeated 2H, but the winning defense was not clear and declarer scored 8 tricks. 2S would have made our way. Each side held 8 trump.

Here's the full deal.

[sfi]

The key thing about balancing is that you have to ask yourself whether it's safer to bid now than before. If not, why are you doing it? In this auction:

- the opponents have exchanged enough information to know what to do if you bid
- there is no expectation either you or they have a fit
- double by them now is penalty

If it's wrong to bid it might be pretty expensive, and they are not likely to make a mistake.

The only thing you now know is that opener doesn't have significant extras, but that doesn't mean it's your hand. All in all, if you choose not to bid 2S on the previous round there is little reason to do so now. I would have bid 2S earlier on many of the hands presented (certainly the first one in this topic and the one just above this message) and bidding spades over 1NT isn't as dangerous as bidding a minor, but wouldn't balance on any of them.