[mgoetze]

IMPs

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Feel free to comment on the bidding if you like, but I am more interested in the play. LHO leads the ♠J. With no great confidence you put up the ♠Q, and surprisingly it holds, RHO contributing the ♠8 (UDCA). Presumably, you discard a heart and lead a high club. RHO produces the ♣4. Do you play the ♣K or not and how confident are you about it?

[Hanoi5]

In favor of playing the K you have the fact that East entered the bidding and he doesn't hold the ♠A, so where are his HCP's? In favor of finessing the 10 we have the fact that West chose to lead his own suit (so maybe he's got an entry...) and that fineesing for the Queen also allows us to win when East holds AQx.

I don't think I'll throw away a heart on the first trick, though. I'd rather shed a diamond.


I think 2♥ is a better bid than 3NT right away. It's not that you have no spade stopper, it's that you have no spades!

[mike777]

run 9 of c.

some confidence but not great, will play west for AJs, east for rest
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strongly prefer 3s splinter here. looking for slam.
prefer to pass tht balanced 12 count, unless playing a light opening bidding style, but that is perhaps a bit old fashion.

[eagles123]

I would play the K

just feels like the percentage thing to do given the auction and the lead

[nige1]

mgoetze, on 2015-April-15, 07:47, said:

IMPs
Feel free to comment on the bidding if you like, but I am more interested in the play. LHO leads the ♠J. With no great confidence you put up the ♠Q, and surprisingly it holds, RHO contributing the ♠8 (UDCA). Presumably, you discard a heart and lead a high club. RHO produces the ♣4. Do you play the ♣K or not and how confident are you about it?

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IMO, it's slightly better to run ♣9 because it caters for RHO holding ♣AQ4. The auction and lead don't help much with this decision.

[ArtK78]

Run the ♣9.

The less said about the bidding the better.

[WesleyC]

First, I'd like to award the 3NT bid a 2 on nige1's behalf. It would've gotten even less, but it did lead to a great play problem.

There are only 3 relevant club holdings (a-priori odds in brackets):

Finesse wins:
1. void - ♣AQ4 - (4.7%)
2. ♣A - ♣Q4 - (11.9%)

King wins:
3. ♣Q - ♣A4 - (11.9%)

So without the auction, it's roughly 60-40 in favour taking the finesse.

However, once the opening lead marks LHO with AJTxx(xx) of spades there aren't many points left in the deck.

The 3 cases above translate to RHO overcalling 1H at Vul vs NV on a hands that looks approximately like:

1. [xxx ATxxx Jx AQx], [xxx Axxxx Jx AQx], [xxx ATxxx xx AQx] or [xxx ATxxxx x AQx] - 1H looks pretty normal on all of these.
2. [xxx ATxxx Jxx Qx], [xxx Axxxx Jxx Qx] or [xxx ATxxx xxx Qx] or [xxx ATxxxx xx Qx] - Even with a 6c suit 1H looks very dubious. Hardly anyone would overcall with only a 5c suit.

3. [xxx ATxxx Jxx Ax], [xxx Axxxx Jxx Ax] or [xxx ATxxx xxx Ax] or [xxx ATxxxx xx Ax] - Most people would bid with a 6c suit but with only a 5c suit, it looks risky.

So assigning these situations some probabilities (fairly arbitrarily).

1. 100% chance of bidding. = (4.7 * 100%) = 4.7%
2. 10% chance bidding. = (11.9 * 10%) = 1.2%

3. 50% chance of bidding. = (11.9 * 50%) = 5.9%

Which brings the situation back to almost exactly a 50/50 guess, D'oh.

However, my gut instinct is that i'm slightly underestimating how conservative people are, so I'd lean towards running the 9.

[mcphee]

It is hard to imagine my RHO over calling with 2 bald aces red/white with this H suit he managed to bid. Therefore I would play the 5 expecting it to win. Besides how often do you get to hook a 5? There remains a slim chance RHO had 6H and only Ax in but maybe he only has 2 S and I can still make. I would think my RHO has something like Jxx A10xx xx AQx for this vul overcall. The 3N bid means at least 3 or 4 visits to Dr.Phil.

[mgoetze]

WesleyC, on 2015-April-15, 22:01, said:

Finesse wins:
1. void - ♣AQ4 - (4.7%)
2. ♣A - ♣Q4 - (11.9%)

King wins:
3. ♣Q - ♣A4 - (11.9%)

[...]

1. 100% chance of bidding. = (4.7 * 100%) = 4.7%
2. 10% chance bidding. = (11.9 * 10%) = 1.2%

3. 50% chance of bidding. = (11.9 * 50%) = 5.9%

Which brings the situation back to almost exactly a 50/50 guess, D'oh.

My thinking was much the same, except that I completely discounted layout #2 as a vulnerable overcall on just ♥A and ♣Q seemed unfathomable to me, therefore I played the king. Naturally RHO turned out to have AQ4, and I am left wondering whether I should have discounted layout #3 even more than I did.

[PhantomSac]

Don't pitch a heart at trick 1 and you have a good chance of making even when RHO has the AQx of clubs (though you won't make with best defense).