[Mbodell]

IMP teams KO semi-finals of district GNT B. If it matters: 28 board match and you are somehow down by 26 at the half, but feel you have the stronger team and your opponents have just scored up +520 for 3nt making 7 for a possible pickup on the first board, 2 uninteresting hands, then the following hand comes up:

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Opening lead is the ♣4 and the trick continues A, 7, 3. If you cash a trump RHO shows out and pitches another middle club. Is it too deep a position to pull trump, cash the other top club and 2 top hearts, ruffing the 3rd heart and run spades pitching the heart if not good on the last spade (at worst falling back on the diamond finesse if RHO pitches the last heart after us, but likely playing the double squeeze if it is possible to have worked)? Or is that sort of line an unlucky "expert" line when the obvious ruffing a club for trick 13 before pulling trumps is very likely to make.

[PhantomSac]

Yes it is too big

[WesleyC]

Is LHO really leading a singleton club vs a grandslam holding xxxx in trumps? Versus a reasonable opponent, ruffing a club must be almost 100%.

[remnart]

In my view the likelyhood of 6-2 or better in ♣ offer a better chance than playing any sort of squeeze. So go for the ♣ ruff.

[KurtGodel]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you place the QC on your right draw five rounds of trumps pitching one card from each red suit, now RHO has to abandon the joint guard in one of the red suits (you have played 5 rounds of trumps and 1 round of clubs, RHO must keep 7 cards including Qx of clubs, so he must have 2 cards in one of the red suits). You cash two top cards in that red suit and the remaining top club then return to hand (if he abandoned diamonds you play K and A, if he abandon hearts you cash the top two and play a diamond back to hand). Now you cash your last trump finishing a double squeeze using the other red suit as the pivot suit. I appreciate this might take a little card reading, and you look like a real idiot if you go down when you could just ruff a club in dummy.

Not every day you have to choose between taking a ruff in dummy or a compound squeeze, perhaps not without reason...

Edited so that it's a playable line.

[Cyberyeti]

KurtGodel, on 2015-March-09, 08:44, said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you place the QC on your right and don't think LHO led a singleton can't you cash two rounds of clubs draw five rounds of trumps pitching one card from each red suit, now RHO has to abandon the joint guard in one of the red suits (you have played 5 rounds of trumps and 2 rounds of clubs, RHO must keep 6 cards including QC, so he must have 2 cards in one of the red suits). You cash two top cards in that red suit and then return to hand (if he abandoned diamonds you play K and A, if he abandon hearts you cash the top two and play a diamond back to hand). Now you cash your last trump finishing a double squeeze using the other red suit as the pivot suit. I appreciate this might take a little card reading, and you look like a real idiot if you go down when you could just ruff a club in dummy.

Not every day you have to choose between taking a ruff in dummy or a compound squeeze, perhaps not without reason...

You've miscounted the trumps, if the second club stands up you can ruff high as you have a 6-3 fit.

[KurtGodel]

Cyberyeti, on 2015-March-09, 08:59, said:

You've miscounted the trumps, if the second club stands up you can ruff high as you have a 6-3 fit.

/facepalm

[KurtGodel]

KurtGodel, on 2015-March-09, 09:02, said:

/facepalm

Although it should work just as well without cashing second club.

[Lovera]

It seems how when in a magazine there is a script talking :"how many triangles do you see in this picture ?". Usually is the squeeze play used to avoid "alea" of impasse :is it not that in diamond suit Q falls down at third round ?

[gszes]

I am still wracking what's left of my brain wondering why lho with a completely safe trump lead ever consider leading a side suit. It boggles the mind on so many levels. There is no strong reason to assume, from the bidding, where south's honors are (aside from the spade Q) and any side suit lead (even a singleton club) is at best a huge gamble that it will not solve declarers 13th trick for them. A trump lead at worst will keep the dummy from ruffing a suit twice and any lead is hugely unlikely to be a "killer" vs a grand. If I had a singleton club the last thing I would want to do is wake up declarer to that possibility by leading one.arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Is the lead of a singleton so strong on our psyche that we cannot avoid it even when logic dictates it is unreasonable to choose it?

It just seems too coincidental that a club was chosen by the opening leader with a perfectly safe (and possibly killer) spade lead. I would probably fall back on pulling trump and trying to ruff out the dia Q falling back on the compound squeeze it that does not work. This may seem odd but
if the dia finesse was always due to work (by ruffing hearts vs dia) then the dia Q being with lho will guarantee a compound squeeze will work whenever it is possible.

When this fails since lho led proudly from the club Q knowing there was a fair chance such a lead would put me through such mental anguish, even if I guessed what to do, they would most likely go on to win the match since I would have mentally exhausted myself in the process. I am going to sleep now good night:)

[TylerE]

What's the old joke about the beginner taking to the simple line and succeeding, and the eggspert going down hunting for the triple backwash crocofile coup?

[Mbodell]

Table Results:
I took my time (for me at least) in playing this hand as it was fairly likely that it was going to be match influencing. On the opening lead I considered the squeeze line for what felt like 25 or 30 seconds, but mainly because it took me that long to realize after counting to 12 (and being tuned for squeezes from extra BM2000 practice) that d'uh, a club ruff makes 13. I wanted to try cashing a couple of trumps first for extra safety if trumps were 2-2, but upon seeing 4-0 break re-evaluated. I knew the vacant spaces of the 4=0 break made the 1=7 split in clubs more likely (I didn't know this at the time but from about 1.43% to 4.83% according to Richard Pavlicek's calculator).

I had a strong gut feel that the lead was a singleton, but wasn't sure if that was just doom and gloom or actual reading something (LHO had a slight confident vibe with the lead). The event is GNT B-flight, so no one on either team is going to be world class. But our district is strong for B, and 24 teams started and this pair's team made it to at least the final 4. Also, I had looked them up on power ratings before the match and they had a pair rating of just under 60, which is quite reasonable (around the average of players for day 1 of an open NABC event; equivalent to an average pair of players with about 8000 master points each). It all makes a non-trump lead quite odd (and thinking about it more now even odder).

The LHO, of course, did have 9763 Qxxx xxxx x as their hand (RHO is therefore - Jxx Qxx QTxxxxx). And I did in the end reluctantly play for the club ruff and went down 1. A heart lead from the Q for LHO is very risky, a diamond lead gives me the contract (why couldn't it have been diamonds 1=6 instead of clubs 1=7?!). A spade lead seems obvious in 7 on the auction and LHO hand.

At the other table the opponents avoided ruffs by playing 6nt for +990 and we lost 14. The other table also pushed the +520 board 1. Despite these 2 boards we won the second 14 boards by 18 IMPs, but that wasn't enough with the bad first half so we lost by 8. Obviously if we make 7 we score 1510 and win 11, swinging 25 imps, and advancing to the district finals.

I've obviously thought about the hand a fair bit because of the result and outcome, but it is hard for me to analyze it for the same reason.

[PhantomSac]

I wouldn't lose sleep over this one... Tough luck man sorry

[rmnka447]

Wow! What a hand!

I'm not sure I'd do any differently than try and ruff a ♣.

But if you don't believe that LHO would underlead the ♣ Q especially with 4 trumps, then you might consider the squeeze. If RHO has the ♣ Q, then the resulting double squeeze would end up being a type R double squeeze. The high card winners are right for the compound squeeze. But the problem is recalling all the conditions necessary and proper order of play as outlined in Love. It also depends on sorting out which suit is being abandoned by RHO. That doesn't seem like it would be so easy to do on a pivotal board in an important competition.

The thing that jumped out at me about the OP explanation of the result was the gut feeling he had about a possible singleton ♣. It struck a chord with me. Over the years, I had similar feelings about the way a hand lays, an action to take, or a call to make. Whenever I've ignored them or rationalized a different course of action, the results haven't been pretty. These gut feelings don't come up often, but I've learned to strongly consider them when they occur. As a result, I've gotten much better results. It's made me believe that there's something called "table presence" that operates at some subliminal level. Whatever vibs you pick up as a result of it -- gut feelings -- should be strongly listened to.

[Mbodell]

rmnka447, on 2015-March-10, 01:17, said:

But if you don't believe that LHO would underlead the ♣ Q especially with 4 trumps, then you might consider the squeeze. If RHO has the ♣ Q, then the resulting double squeeze would end up being a type R double squeeze. The high card winners are right for the compound squeeze. But the problem is recalling all the conditions necessary and proper order of play as outlined in Love. It also depends on sorting out which suit is being abandoned by RHO. That doesn't seem like it would be so easy to do on a pivotal board in an important competition.

The problem with the squeeze line, as much as I like it is if hearts are 4-3 you don't know does RHO have the heart Q and the club Q and no diamonds (or even the key diamond but can pitch a heart after dummy). Of course you can also play diamond A, K, ruff and use the diamond J as the threat card (keeping hearts as the entry). This will also work anytime the diamond Q is third or less so might be a better line (although you lose the ability to choose to take the diamond finesse). But again RHO might have the club and diamond guards with LHO being able to protect hearts. And of course, maybe LHO does underlead a club Q. That seems less likely than a singleton lead, but really any lead other than a trump is fairly risky.

[Lovera]

If ♦ Q is in W you before try to catch it ruffing in this way at third round (covering Qxx in W); when it is not with ♦ Q in W and ♣ Q in E you can establish a balanced double squeeze (3 cards ending - type R) at 11th trick. A parenthesis : if opening leads is a singleton or a doubleton (or a "Cino Del Duca trap" but why do you think so complicated ?) i have fear for contract and prefer play trump exploring step by step my possibilities not necessarly starting to think squeeze initially.

[KurtGodel]

Lovera, on 2015-March-10, 10:25, said:

If ♦ Q is in W you before try to catch it ruffing in this way at third round (covering Qxx in W); when it is not with ♦ Q in W and ♣ Q in E you can establish a balanced double squeeze (3 cards ending - type R) at 11th trick. A parenthesis : if opening leads is a singleton or a doubleton (or a "Cino Del Duca trap" but why do you think so complicated ?) i have fear for contract and prefer play trump exploring step by step my possibilities not necessarly starting to think squeeze initially.

I explained earlier that you can always make it if the QC is on your right.

[Lovera]

KurtGodel, on 2015-March-12, 01:52, said:

I explained earlier that you can always make it if the QC is on your right.

Yes, i have seen, but my point tried to avoid squeeze play (initially) catching queen of diamond and considers the more probable ending (respect other possibility on E) when Q is 4th in W. Althoug your solution is valid considering indeterminate position of queen of diamond (as double) togheter with that one in hearts, bye.