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Is 4H a transfer to 4S?

#1 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2014-December-28, 22:32

You are in contention for the win in a sectional swiss team event. This is the last hand:

Swiss teams (IMPs converted to VPs). No one vul. LHO dealer.

AKQ97x
Kx
JTx
xx

The bidding:

(2♥) - P - (4♥) - ?

Your style is that a direct action over a preempt should be a good hand, if that matters. In other words, partner will not act over 2♥ without a sound hand.
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#2 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-December-29, 01:13

I'd pass. Too balanced for my taste.
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#3 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-December-29, 02:02

I'll risk it, trying not to look nervous. If the honours are scattered, we might get away undoubled,
The "4♥ is a transfer to 4♠" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
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#4 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2014-December-29, 02:04

I wlould bid 4♠ also, even when wrong we might defend 5♥
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#5 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2014-December-29, 03:16

i'll take my chances on defence. i've got more than 2 tricks on average imo.
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#6 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-December-29, 04:10

Obv 4♠ for me.
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#7 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2014-December-29, 04:30

knew I could count on you Nuno :)
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#8 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-December-29, 06:07

Hope this is not like Cardiff.. -800 to -1400 would be the outcome Posted Image
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#9 User is offline   Trinidad 

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Posted 2014-December-31, 00:16

You win some, you lose some. I think I will win more than I lose when I accept the transfer. Chalk me up for 4♠.

Rik
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#10 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2014-December-31, 01:30

Pass looks obvious. I'm not sure why I'd be bidding. After partner's pass over 2♥ there's almost no hope that we'll make 4♠, and there's nothing about my hand that suggests it will be a cheap sacrifice.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#11 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-December-31, 01:53

Pass. Why go for a big minus?
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#12 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2014-December-31, 02:28

Put me down for 4S.

Admittedly 4S on this hand is very risky and is probably a double dummy losing action, but you have to parlay that with the opponents actually punishing you. Its quite possible that the opponents end up with +150 on a layout where 4H is a lucky make.
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#13 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2014-December-31, 05:04

Pass. I just can't see much upside to 4♠ here.
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#14 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2014-December-31, 07:26

View Postgnasher, on 2014-December-31, 01:30, said:

Pass looks obvious. I'm not sure why I'd be bidding. After partner's pass over 2♥ there's almost no hope that we'll make 4♠,

Since we are told "Your style is that a direct action over a preempt should be a good hand", I think it's quite easy to construct hands where partner won't act and 4S is cold. You may still be right about it not being likely enough, but I think "almost no hope" is a big overbid.
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#15 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2014-December-31, 08:50

4S

Far too easy for p to have been silenced when holding only 2 spades to let
this one go by. Rho gave no thought to slam search so P is rated to hold
at least something over there. We have few worries p will go beyond 4s since
they could take no action over 2h. We have many ways to come out ahead (and a
fair number of really good results) by bidding 4s and not all that many results
that will be a huge negative. It is not all that easy to x an unlimited opp
with no trump tricks:)
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#16 User is offline   jogs 

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Posted 2015-January-01, 12:15

Pass.

As MrAce says,"too flat". Also don't like the location of the ♥K.
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#17 User is offline   AyunuS 

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Posted 2015-January-03, 05:49

All your out of trump cards are likely losers, especially when LHO probably has A♥. Given the bidding I'd say your partner has at most 10 points, so I wouldn't count on your partner covering more than 2 of your 7 losers. So you'd probably lose ~5. I'd try to break it down to something like this:
down 4 / -800: ~10% -9 IMPs (-.9)
down 3 / -500: ~30% -2 IMPs (-.6)
down 2 / -300: ~50% +3 IMPs (+1.5)
down 1 / -100: ~10% +8 IMPs (+0.8)
Everything else: about 0%.

Add up the numbers on the right and you'll see that the total is positive +0.8 so it seems like a gain on average to me.
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#18 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2015-January-03, 06:27

View PostAyunuS, on 2015-January-03, 05:49, said:

All your out of trump cards are likely losers, especially when LHO probably has A♥. Given the bidding I'd say your partner has at most 10 points, so I wouldn't count on your partner covering more than 2 of your 7 losers. So you'd probably lose ~5. I'd try to break it down to something like this:
down 4 / -800: ~10% -9 IMPs (-.9)
down 3 / -500: ~30% -2 IMPs (-.6)
down 2 / -300: ~50% +3 IMPs (+1.5)
down 1 / -100: ~10% +8 IMPs (+0.8)
Everything else: about 0%.

Add up the numbers on the right and you'll see that the total is positive +0.8 so it seems like a gain on average to me.


How do you know 4H is making?
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#19 User is offline   brettnj 

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Posted 2015-January-03, 09:23

View Postthe hog, on 2014-December-31, 01:53, said:

Pass. Why go for a big minus?


I agree -- you have what appears to be 7 outside losers. Down 4 cannot be good. Bidding 4 spades is too unilateral.

This post has been edited by diana_eva: 2015-January-03, 12:51
Reason for edit: closed quote

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#20 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2015-January-03, 17:49

I would definitely bid, I think down 2 or 3 undoubled is definitely in the game when they make 4H.

Just out of curiosity to the passers, suppose I told you that you will take 7 or 8 tricks in 4S. What percent of the time do you think you are getting doubled? I would think about 40% of the time we are down 2 and maybe 70% of the time we are down 3.
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