[lamford]

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What do you lead? A strong London league; if you know the hand, comment but do not say what works. IMPs as you would expect for a league.

[WesleyC]

♦A.

Would never consider passing over 1C...

[mikeh]

I think this is tough. At mps, I think a diamond is a strong favourite but I am not sure that it offers the best chance to get 4 tricks, as opposed to the best chance to get 3.

Assume we can grab 2 diamonds and partner's likely 4 card trump suit comes in as another winner. Now declarer probably has the rest of the tricks, since clubs behave so well for him.

However, I lead the diamond Ace since I think that it needs a little less from partner to be the winning lead than does a heart. A black suit is impossible.

[nige1]

lamford, on 2014-November-06, 08:10, said:

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What do you lead? A strong London league; if you know the hand, comment but do not say what works.

IMO ♦A = 10, ♦Q = 9, ♣x = 8, ♥x = 7. ♦Q is an attempt at the brilliancy prize, in case partner has ♦Kx -- although, perhaps, with that holding, partner might win the brilliancy prize, himself, by unblocking on the ♦A lead.

[whereagles]

Not sure if 3♠ showed a 6-5 or just a 5-4 without diamond stop.

But I would lead the ♦A regardless.

[lamford]

whereagles, on 2014-November-06, 10:50, said:

Not sure if 3♠ showed a 6-5 or just a 5-4 without diamond stop.

But I would lead the ♦A regardless.

I think 3S showed 5-6, at least that is what we were told by dummy, and declarer confirmed it.

[Jinksy]

If it promises 5-6, a ♣ lead looks tempting. We might get a first round ruff on a good day; if not, hopefully we can manage a ♠ stop from P, a round of ♦s to hold up so I can give him a second round ruff, and then a fourth trick in the wash (apparently that DK that mikeh is intending to collect).

Agree with WesleyC - passing 1♣ was weedy. 2♦ for me.

[nige1]

lamford, on 2014-November-06, 11:29, said:

I think 3S showed 5-6, at least that is what we were told by dummy, and declarer confirmed it.

That makes sense and also makes Jinksy's ♣ lead attractive,

[the hog]

I lead the DA as well. For those who would like to overcall, an overcall that takes away no room should show a good hand. This does not fall into the definition of a good hand. I notice this was a "A strong London league", so I am not surprised there was no overcall.

[lamford]

the hog, on 2014-November-06, 18:00, said:

I lead the DA as well. For those who would like to overcall, an overcall that takes away no room should show a good hand. This does not fall into the definition of a good hand. I notice this was a "A strong London league", so I am not surprised there was no overcall.

I agree with your view of a 1♦ overcall. It is not that it contains any great danger, but it should show a good hand. However, I disagree strongly with the A♦ lead. In my view a club is a stand-out. It beats the contract most of the time partner has a void, and may beat the contract when partner has a trump trick and the ace of hearts and a singleton club. Partner had xxxx AKxx xxxxx none and a club lead beat the contract immediately (declarer was 5-1-1-6 with a good hand). But if he had held Axx Axxx xxxxx x a club lead would still have been a huge winner.

[PhilKing]

Double.

[MrAce]

PhilKing, on 2014-November-06, 18:51, said:

Double.

[MrAce]

Dbl post

[Jinksy]

the hog, on 2014-November-06, 18:00, said:

I lead the DA as well. For those who would like to overcall, an overcall that takes away no room should show a good hand. This does not fall into the definition of a good hand.

Hence 2♦.

[phil_20686]

It seems to me that you have two chances here

(1) Start forcing declarer immediately, and try to give partner trump control.
(2) Try to set up a club ruff.

I think that option A is more likely. Put me down for the diamond ace.

I do not think that a club void is at all likely. With 3-4 in the black suits responder would have made more of an effort to play in clubs.

[the hog]

Jinksy, on 2014-November-07, 03:34, said:

Hence 2♦.

2d is even sillier than 1d, but please continue to bid this way. It just reinforces my beliefs based on previous pists.

[ahydra]

Based on declarer's extreme shape my first instinct was to go for the DA as well. There is a small chance partner has a void in clubs but there's a better chance that the DA will force declarer such that he can't run clubs easily.

ahydra

[Jinksy]

the hog, on 2014-November-07, 09:10, said:

2d is even sillier than 1d, but please continue to bid this way. It just reinforces my beliefs based on previous pists.

I can hardly believe I'm still optimistic enough to ask this, but do you have a reason for this claim? Perhaps one based on - y'know - reason rather than your traditional 'a reely reely good player I once played with told me this and he was awesome and better than anyone you've played with!!11!!'?

Advantages:
Good enough suit and distribution to not get Xed
Favourable vul
Takes lots of opps' bidding space
Good chance of LHO playing the contract, so it helps P with lead
P has passed, so no chance of preempting him
Weak enough that opps might have slam

Disadvantages:
Certain BBO forumers were taught by Obi-Wan Kenobi that they needed an extra D for the bid and find it morally abhorrent without one

[Jinksy]

ahydra, on 2014-November-07, 09:15, said:

Based on declarer's extreme shape my first instinct was to go for the DA as well. There is a small chance partner has a void in clubs but there's a better chance that the DA will force declarer such that he can't run clubs easily.

ahydra

Maybe, but if P has two ♠ winners and declarer a ♦ (or two), a ♣ singleton would serve as well (and the forcing defence might not work if dummy shows up with something like xxx Axxxx Kx QTx)

[mikeh]

I don't know why, but when I posted my answer, for some reason I overlooked the club raise by dummy. I wouldn't lead a club expecting a void. I'd be surprised to find that the opps had a 10 card fit in clubs. However, I agree with the club lead, having reviewed the auction.

As I mentioned in my earlier post, I had difficulty seeing how the diamond A lead (which I chose anyway) could lead to 4 defensive tricks. A club lead points an easy way to 4 tricks if partner holds a stiff and an early trump trick, and of course an even easier path if he holds a void and either we get 2 diamonds, or he has another trick to go with 2 ruffs.

So at imps, I agree that the club lead is best. At mps, I am still a diamond leader, since the club rates to lose a tempo and seems to me more likely to cost us an important defensive trick than to set the contract.