[zenbiddist]

4♥ South, ♠Q led (IMPs)

♠982
♥A62
♦Q6
♣AQ853

♠AK54
♥K8743
♦T5
♣K7

How would you play this? What suggested your line of play?
A strong player disliked my line and so now I'm curious about the hand.

[billw55]

♠A, ♥AK, ♣KAQ pitching a diamond. If I am still on lead after this, then club pitching another diamond.

Although I'm no wizard, so won't be surprised if someone finds better.

[Hanoi5]

♠A, ♥K, ♣KAQ.

[MrAce]

How about

♠ A

♥ K

♣ K-A

♣ 3 and ruff if E follows.

If 3-3 clubs we do not lose anything. We now can go dummy with ♥ A and play clubs.

If someone ruffs 3rd ♣ we discard a ♦ , they now cash a ♦ and they may play 4th ♣ while we discard a ♠. and they ruff again. Take the ♠ shift, go dummy with ♥ A and discard another spade on 5th club ?

[MrAce]

Na it doesn't work, nevermind. I think KAQ ♣ line better

[rhm]

Hanoi5, on 2014-April-08, 06:44, said:

♠A, ♥K, ♣KAQ.

I agree with this line even though this line loses when East has 2 hearts and 2 clubs while ruffing a low club at trick 5 would win.
However, the above line wins when clubs are 3-3 and trumps 4-1.

Rainer Herrmann

[zenbiddist]

rhm, on 2014-April-08, 08:29, said:

I agree with this line even though this line loses when East has 2 hearts and 2 clubs while ruffing a low club at trick 5 would win.
However, the above line wins when clubs are 3-3 and trumps 4-1.

Rainer Herrmann

Yes. I'm not confident of gauging the probability of suit breaks very well, especially in a rush. At the table I judged that suits were probably breaking relatively nicely because my hands were balanced-ish and because nobody bid. Rather than hoping for a 3-3 break in a black suit, or playing for 4-1 trumps, I ducked a heart at trick two. The opponents cashed two diamonds then played a spade. I won and cashed ♥K, ♣K-A and ruffed a club, glad that I wasn't over-ruffed. Now I was able to cross to dummy's ♥A and pitch losing spades on the established clubs.

My line goes off when the player with the third trump has only two clubs (slightly more likely I guess), and has a spade left. A few good players told me they'd play two top hearts, then club club club pitching a diamond. I'm still not sure which line works in the most cases. Is there a shortcut for this kind of thinking? I don't have the brain to go case-by-case quickly enough at the table. Thanks for looking everyone

[rhm]

zenbiddist, on 2014-April-10, 02:46, said:

A few good players told me they'd play two top hearts, then club club club pitching a diamond. I'm still not sure which line works in the most cases. Is there a shortcut for this kind of thinking? I don't have the brain to go case-by-case quickly enough at the table. Thanks for looking everyone

This is not a bad line, but consider this ordinary layout

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Two top heart loses. West does not ruff the third club, but discards diamonds and waits until he gets in to draw dummy's last trump.
Saving the ♥A for later and as a late entry to dummy avoids this problem. (If West ruffs the third round of clubs and plays a diamond to East, South should not ruff the ♣9, but discard a spade.)

With regard to your question, unfortunately I do not know a shortcut and I do not think there is one.

It is often difficult to see different lines of play in the first place and comparing them is anything but easy in complex cases.
You can either try to compute their absolute probability to succeed or you can compare two lines, by comparing only the layouts where one wins over the other.
Both methods are not trivial and require a lot of expertise and some mathematical background.
I know because I see errors even in recently published books on expert play.
This is one area where I think double dummy programs should get better. Double Dummy simulators (in this case deal out only the defenders cards) should be improved to tell you which line worked most of the time.
If the sample is large enough this is very likely the best line or very close to it. As I understand good Bridge playing software works like this, but the samples are often quite small to avoid long delays in the play of the hand. So the result is not accurate enough.
Fortunately many deals are not that complex.
The more important issue is to see alternative lines of play in the first place. Experienced Bridge players often have a good feeling which line is more likely to succeed.

Rainer Herrmann

[mfa1010]

I must resist the urge to duck the spade... must resist, it is indeed at horrible play...

[whereagles]

i'd just ruff a club and take it from there

[rhm]

whereagles, on 2014-April-11, 15:01, said:

i'd just ruff a club and take it from there

And what makes you believe this to be the best line?

Rainer Herrmann

[whereagles]

Nothing in particular. Just my feeling.

[nige1]

zenbiddist, on 2014-April-10, 02:46, said:

Yes. I'm not confident of gauging the probability of suit breaks very well, especially in a rush. At the table I judged that suits were probably breaking relatively nicely because my hands were balanced-ish and because nobody bid. Rather than hoping for a 3-3 break in a black suit, or playing for 4-1 trumps, I ducked a heart at trick two. The opponents cashed two diamonds then played a spade. I won and cashed ♥K, ♣K-A and ruffed a club, glad that I wasn't over-ruffed. Now I was able to cross to dummy's ♥A and pitch losing spades on the established clubs.
My line goes off when the player with the third trump has only two clubs (slightly more likely I guess), and has a spade left. A few good players told me they'd play two top hearts, then club club club pitching a diamond. I'm still not sure which line works in the most cases. Is there a shortcut for this kind of thinking? I don't have the brain to go case-by-case quickly enough at the table. Thanks for looking everyone

Rubens and Rodwell have written books to help you to work out the best line at the table but IMO, it's still hard. Gib and other double-dummy solvers, can help you to work out the best line away from the table. Here among the many possibilities, the main ones that you might consider are that LHO has sole control of:
just ♠

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♠ and ♥

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♠ and ♣

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♠ and ♥ and ♣

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[zenbiddist]

Thanks everyone. What about this hand? Similar themes - came up two days ago. Lots of really pretty possibilities. Keen to hear what other people think:

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6NT South, ♠9 led (matchpoints)

Ps: So ♣, ♣ works when clubs are 4-2, but there are other possibilities. How do people think about this hand? It's quite juicy IMO.
PPs: I'm aware my 4NT bid was probably not going to be interpreted as quant, but that was my excuse for being in the tight slam i was probably going to end up in

[beatrix45]

Not a promising situation. Duck a trump early. Then go for the club suit. 3-3 or 4-2 with the ♥ as your entry.

[antonylee]

Quick looks at it suggests two top clubs, if 5-1 then diamond to the... 9? Then squeeze West in the minors on the run of hearts.

[nige1]

zenbiddist, on 2014-November-04, 01:57, said:

Thanks everyone. What about this hand? Similar themes - came up two days ago. Lots of really pretty possibilities. Keen to hear what other people think:
6NT South, ♠9 led (matchpoints)
Ps: So ♣, ♣ works when clubs are 4-2, but there are other possibilities. How do people think about this hand? It's quite juicy IMO.PPs: I'm aware my 4NT bid was probably not going to be interpreted as quant, but that was my excuse for being in the tight slam i was probably going to end up in

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antonylee, on 2014-November-04, 04:21, said:

Quick looks at it suggests two top clubs, if 5-1 then diamond to the... 9? Then squeeze West in the minors on the run of hearts.

I like antonylee's line
Win ♠ cheaply discarding a ♦
Cash ♣Q. Lead ♣3.
If LHO follows low then finesse ♣9 (In case LHO has made a mistake).
If LHO inserts ♣T or ♣J, then cover and if RHO shows out then finesse ♦8
If RHO does not return a ♦ then reduce to this 4-card ending with the lead in dummy and lead ♥J
If ♥5 is not a winner then you need some luck in ♦.
If ♥5 is good, then discard ♦9 and cash ♥5 for a double squeeze.

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[navahak]

Duck the first trick. After spade continues ♠A,♥AK,♣AKQ,♠K and then ruff a spade.

If it looks like opponents know about attitude to first trick and RHO's card looks like discouraging then better to win first trick and play like previous posters have proposed.

[whereagles]

dbl post pls delete

[whereagles]

zenbiddist, on 2014-November-04, 01:57, said:

Thanks everyone. What about this hand?

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Testing the clubs seems normal. If they break 5-1 an endplay on East cannot work on any scenario, so I think I'd go for the "run ♦8" line.