[straube]

I think kenrexford nailed it.

[32519]

Paulg started this thread and then vanished.
1. What is the minimum HCP responder can be expected to hold to start this inquiry sequence?
2. What is responder’s expected distribution? Ken’s post makes sense if responder has a 5/5 holding in the majors and wants to know about 3-cards in either suit from opener.

0.47% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit and 6-11 HCP
0.44% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 1♥, and 6-11 HCP
0.32% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 2♥, and 6-11 HCP
0.15% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 3♥, and 6-11 HCP
0.01% = Probability of being dealt a 3307 hand and 6-11 HCP [This is so low that you might only find partner with it once every five years]
0.15% = Probability of being dealt 3316 hand and 6-11 HCP [This is better – pre-empt with a 6-card club suit and Ken’s post can work more often]
0.18% = Probability of being dealt 5/5 in the majors and 14+ HCP

6.92% = Probability of being dealt a 5-card major and 14+ HCP
1.98% = Probability of being dealt a 6-card major and 14+ HCP [This is a considerable drop-off by adding in the sixth card]

[manudude03]

32519, on 2014-April-07, 23:21, said:

Paulg started this thread and then vanished.
1. What is the minimum HCP responder can be expected to hold to start this inquiry sequence?
2. What is responder’s expected distribution? Ken’s post makes sense if responder has a 5/5 holding in the majors and wants to know about 3-cards in either suit from opener.

0.47% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit and 6-11 HCP
0.44% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 1♥, and 6-11 HCP
0.32% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 2♥, and 6-11 HCP
0.15% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 3♥, and 6-11 HCP
0.01% = Probability of being dealt a 3307 hand and 6-11 HCP [This is so low that you might only find partner with it once every five years]
0.15% = Probability of being dealt 3316 hand and 6-11 HCP [This is better – pre-empt with a 6-card club suit and Ken’s post can work more often]
0.18% = Probability of being dealt 5/5 in the majors and 14+ HCP

6.92% = Probability of being dealt a 5-card major and 14+ HCP
1.98% = Probability of being dealt a 6-card major and 14+ HCP [This is a considerable drop-off by adding in the sixth card]

If those percentages are from the BBO hand generator, they cannot be counted on, since they don't take the other hands into account. As for the questions
1. It's none of opener's business, but 14+ HCP is probably a fair baseline, if responder has something fitting in clubs.
2. There are no real distribution requirements. I don't think it's even necessary to have any majors to make the bid. xxx AK AKxxxx Kx, 3NT or 5C?. If you were guessing blind, partner could easily have xxx xxx x AQJxxx or x xxx xxx AQJxxx.

[paulg]

32519, on 2014-April-07, 23:21, said:

Paulg started this thread and then vanished.

I've always been here and I appreciate everyone who has made a contribution to the thread, and just thought many of the questions were rhetorical. It is not an area where you want complex agreements since it will not occur frequently. Most of us recognise a hand that wants to bid over a pre-empt and I think many of us are less constrained with our pre-empts than others. So the likelihood of having a good major fit is reasonable and the loss of a natural 3♦ is not too high.

[32519]

I stick to what I posted earlier – it is better for responder to “ask” about the holding in a specific major than having opener “tell” what he has. Finding out that opener has 3-cards in the major that responder does not have helps squat.

Based purely on frequency of occurrence here is my final offer in this thread.
6.92% = the probability of being dealt a 5-card major and 14+ HCP
1.98% = the probability of being dealt a 6-card major and 14+ HCP
0.32% = the probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 2♥, 6-11 HCP
0.15% = the probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 3♥, 6-11 HCP
0.01% = the probability of being dealt a 3307 hand, 6-11 HCP

So if responder is afraid of going past opener’s suit when replying to the “asking” bid in the following auction –
3♣-3♠-?
3NT (1 step) = singleton or void in spades
4♣ (2 steps) = doubleton spade
Depending on responders overall hand strength and club fit, he can, a) pass 4♣ to play, b) bid 4♠ on a 6-2 fit, c) bid 4♠ on a 5-2 fit holding the top 3 honours in the spade suit, d) bid 5♣ to play
4♠ = 3-card spade support

[MrAce]

32519, on 2014-April-08, 03:09, said:

I stick to what I posted earlier –..........zipped bs

When did you ever not stick to what you said earlier ?

[manudude03]

For what it's worth, I ran a couple of simulations on my own dealer program to check the numbers.

North was set to 0-3♠ 0-3♥ 0-4♦ 6-7♣ 6-10HCP (because 6-11 is really rare these days).
These results have the added stipulation that hearts must be shorter (eg. in case 1 I told it to count it if South had 5 spades, 0-4 hearts and 14+HCP)

hand	tests	hands taken*	percentage
5S 14+P	10000	284919		3.501(x2=7.002)
6S 14+P	10000	669973		1.493(x2=2.985)

* these are only counted when North's hand qualifies.

The first case was a lot closer to 32519's percentage than what I was expecting, and would have been closer if I did say 6-11 HCP. The second case was more like what I was expecting, with it being just over 50% higher than the stated figure.

[hrothgar]

32519, on 2014-April-07, 23:21, said:

0.47% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit and 6-11 HCP
0.44% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 1♥, and 6-11 HCP
0.32% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 2♥, and 6-11 HCP
0.15% = Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 3♥, and 6-11 HCP
0.01% = Probability of being dealt a 3307 hand and 6-11 HCP [This is so low that you might only find partner with it once every five years]

I can't help but believe that the probability of being dealt a seven card club suit and 6-11 HCP should be greater than

Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 1♥, and 6-11 HCP +
Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 2♥, and 6-11 HCP

[manudude03]

hrothgar, on 2014-April-08, 14:59, said:

I can't help but believe that the probability of being dealt a seven card club suit and 6-11 HCP should be greater than

Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 1♥, and 6-11 HCP +
Probability of being dealt a 7-card club suit, 2♥, and 6-11 HCP

I just checked that on the BBO hand generator, those percentages are for 0+hearts, 1+hearts, 2+hearts etc.

[hrothgar]

manudude03, on 2014-April-08, 15:10, said:

I just checked that on the BBO hand generator, those percentages are for 0+hearts, 1+hearts, 2+hearts etc.

I knew what mistake he had made, I just found amusing that it went over his head...

[manudude03]

Not that I'm surprised about it happening, but I had missed the mishap myself until you pointed it out, simply reading it as some mis-applied figures that don't really add anything to the discussion, and as such didn't care if the numbers made sense or not.

[straube]

Anyone have a good structure for a 3D preempt?

Maybe...

3H-5+ hearts
.....3S-2 hearts
.....3N-0-1 hearts
.....etc-3 hearts
3S-5+ spades

This picks up 6-2 vs 5-3 hearts but loses out on 5/5 in the majors.

[32519]

straube, on 2014-April-09, 19:31, said:

Anyone have a good structure for a 3D preempt?

Maybe...

3H-5+ hearts
.....3S-2 hearts
.....3N-0-1 hearts
.....etc-3 hearts
3S-5+ spades

This picks up 6-2 vs 5-3 hearts but loses out on 5/5 in the majors.

If you want to go this route you might be better off by flipping your 3NT and 4♦ responses i.e. over 3♠, 3NT = doubleton ♠; 4♦ = singleton or void in ♠.

The full monty would then be -
3♣..
....3♦ = 5/5 in the majors, asking for a 3-card major
......3♥ = 3-card ♠ suit
......3♠ = 3-card ♥ suit
......4♣ = no 3-card major
....3♥ = 5+ ♥, asking for 3-card support
......3♠ = doubleton ♥, no honours in the suit
......3NT = doubleton ♥, 1 of top 3 ♥ honours
......4♣ = singleton or void in ♥
....3♠ = 5+ ♠, asking for 3-card support
......3NT = doubleton ♠ (no room available to distinguish if the doubleton contains an honour card or not)
......4♣ = singleton or void in ♠

3♦..
....3♥ = 5+♥, asking for 3-card support
......3♠ = doubleton ♥, no honours in the suit
......3NT = doubleton ♥, 1 of top 3 ♥ honours
......[4♣ is available for some other use]
......4♦ = singleton or void in ♥
....3♠ = 5+ ♠, asking for 3-card support
......3NT = doubleton ♠, no honours in the suit
......4♣ = doubleton ♠, 1 of top 3 honours
......4♦ = singleton or void in ♠

I have no idea how to show 5/5 in the majors over 3♦?

[32519]

straube, on 2014-April-09, 19:31, said:

Anyone have a good structure for a 3D preempt?

Maybe...
3H-5+ hearts
.....3S-2 hearts
.....3N-0-1 hearts
.....etc-3 hearts3S-5+ spades

This picks up 6-2 vs 5-3 hearts but loses out on 5/5 in the majors.

32519, on 2014-April-09, 23:17, said:

......[4♣ is available for some other use]
......4♦ = singleton or void in ♥

I have no idea how to show 5/5 in the majors over 3♦?

With the 4♣ bid vacant in the scheme proposed, you can use it over 3♦ to show 5/5 in the majors.
Then..
..4♦ = signoff, no 3-card major
..4♥ = signoff, 3-card major
..4♠ = signoff, 3-card major

Using this you can find your 5/3 fits. The downside is that the strong hand ends up on table.

[Kungsgeten]

paulg, on 2014-April-04, 09:05, said:

I see Meckwell (and Fred when he plays with Brad) seem to use 3♦ as a transfer to 3♥, albeit with no other information.

I do not know how they play it, but we use:

3C---
3D = Puppet to 3H
3M = Natural GF
3NT = To play
4C = Preemptive

3C--3D; 3H---
Pass = Good reasons to be playing 3H instead of 3C
3S = To play, as above
3NT = Undefined in our system, but could be a non-forcing slam try in clubs
4C = Asking for trump suit quality (but could be Preemptive Keycard Blackwood if you prefer)

We also play that responding 4C to a 3D/H/S opening asks about trump quality.

[paulg]

Kungsgeten, on 2014-April-16, 03:33, said:

I do not know how they play it, but we use:

3C---
3D = Puppet to 3H
3M = Natural GF
3NT = To play
4C = Preemptive

3C--3D; 3H---
Pass = Good reasons to be playing 3H instead of 3C
3S = To play, as above
3NT = Undefined in our system, but could be a non-forcing slam try in clubs
4C = Asking for trump suit quality (but could be Preemptive Keycard Blackwood if you prefer)

We also play that responding 4C to a 3D/H/S opening asks about trump quality.

Thanks.

It is interesting that you use the puppet primarily to play in a different three-level contract whereas my thoughts were to use 3♦ to find the best game contract.

[straube]

how about...

3D-asking
.....3H-not 3 hearts
..........P-long hearts willing to play 4H opposite fit
..........3S-5 spades, forcing
..........3N-5 hearts
.....3S-3 hearts, not 3 spades
.....3N-3S and 3H
3H-6S
.....3S-liketh not spades, nf
.....4H-transfer
3S-6H, forcing
.....4D-transfer

[Zelandakh]

This has indeed come up a few times and I remember Justin posting his version but also cannot find it, only 32519's thread. I like the variant based on skip bid responses where Opener bids the lowest major where they do not hold a 3 card major fragment (or 3NT with both). That does wrong side for the case where Responder has 5 spades and Opener has no major though.

Note also that while the primary use of a 3♦ advance is to cover the 5 card major hands it is a bit iof a waste not to include more here. Obvious possibilities would be slam tries in clubs or diamonds but if you wanted you could give up one of these and include a shortage ask or, indeed, almost anything else that took you think might be useful for slam investigation.

[lowerline]

3♣-3♦ with a 5crd major

responses:
3♥ = 3crd ♠
3♠ = 3crd ♥
3nt = no 3crd major
4♣ = no 3crd major (and don't want to play 3nt)
4♦ = 3crd ♠&♥

then:
3♣-3M always shows a 6crd
3♣-4♦ shows slam interest in clubs

[paulg]

lowerline, on 2014-May-12, 09:10, said:

3♣-3♦ with a 5crd major

responses:
3♥ = 3crd ♠
3♠ = 3crd ♥
3nt = no 3crd major
4♣ = no 3crd major (and don't want to play 3nt)
4♦ = 3crd ♠&♥

then:
3♣-3M always shows a 6crd
3♣-4♦ shows slam interest in clubs

We settled on this save that 4♣ shows 3-3 majors as we never wanted to go past 3NT without a fit.