[CSGibson]

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This is from the round of 32 vs Woolsey & Stewart (Woolsey on your left). For those that don't know, Woolsey and Stewart have a reputation for extremely aggressive preemptive action. Anyway, the lead is the ♥3 to Stewart's T and your Ace (3rd & Low leads). What do you think is the best line?

[mikeh]

Top clubs and ruff a club. Assuming rho follows to 3 clubs, I ruff with the 9.

If clubs are 3-3, I just need a little luck in diamonds.

If clubs are 2=4, then I have to hope for a lot of luck in diamonds if I am going to make this: stiff 5 or A10/AQ tight in lho

[JLOGIC]

mikeh, on 2013-August-13, 09:34, said:

Top clubs and ruff a club. Assuming rho follows to 3 clubs, I ruff with the 9.

If clubs are 3-3, I just need a little luck in diamonds.

If clubs are 2=4, then I have to hope for a lot of luck in diamonds if I am going to make this: stiff 5 or A10/AQ tight in lho

Seems like stiff 5 isn't good enough, we will lose 3 trump tricks to RHO's AQT.

I was thinking AT doubleton with LHO isn't good enough after ruffing with the 9 since if we get overruffed twice, we then lose to RHOs Qx. But the point is obviously if LHO overruffs with the ten and doesn't play a trump, we should play a trump ourselves first, before ruffing the last club.


Seems like ruffing with the jack is better, we can make on ATx of diamonds with LHO now and may go down one less on stiff ten with LHO (since we are going to play him for AT if we ruff with the 9 and get overruffed and he shifts.)

[cherdano]

Both lines also make when clubs are 2=4 and LHO has ♦A5.

LHO being Woolsey, I think we can discount the possibility of him having only 3 cards in the minors - he is w/r against a nebulous 1♦ opening. I think 5 cards in the minors is also not too likely - doubleton heart is so unlikely given the lead, and I wouldn't expect 5332 even from him.

[gnasher]

Ruffing with the jack loses when LHO has a small singleton diamond and three clubs. That seems more likely than ♦A10x and a doubleton club, which would probably give him a 1♠ overcall.

[CSGibson]

Woolsey has 4 clubs and the stiff Q of diamonds, so all "go after clubs" lines work.

[JLOGIC]

gnasher, on 2013-August-15, 03:33, said:

Ruffing with the jack loses when LHO has a small singleton diamond and three clubs. That seems more likely than ♦A10x and a doubleton club, which would probably give him a 1♠ overcall.

Are you implying after ruffing with the 9 if clubs are 3-3 we are going to cross to dummy and lead a diamond to the jack? That loses to stiff queen of diamonds on our left. Likewise, running the 8 would lose to stiff ten of diamonds on our left.

[gnasher]

JLOGIC, on 2013-August-15, 11:08, said:

Are you implying after ruffing with the 9 if clubs are 3-3 we are going to cross to dummy and lead a diamond to the jack? That loses to stiff queen of diamonds on our left. Likewise, running the 8 would lose to stiff ten of diamonds on our left.

That's a good point, which I hadn't considered. Yes, having got to this position I probably would lead a diamond to the jack. Other things being equal, I should play LHO for the weakest diamond holding, because he chose 2♠ rather than 1♠. That applies both when he's 6313 and when he's 6133. For example, AQxxxx xxx Q Jxx and Axxxxx x A10x xxx are probably both 1♠ bids, but if you weaken the diamonds they might become 2♠ bids.

Anyway, this makes the comparison in my previous post wrong, because I lose to some 1-3 diamond breaks where you may make. What are you going to do after ruffing with the jack and finding the clubs 3-3?

[JLOGIC]

gnasher, on 2013-August-15, 11:57, said:

That's a good point, which I hadn't considered. Yes, having got to this position I probably would lead a diamond to the jack. Other things being equal, I should play LHO for the weakest diamond holding, because he chose 2♠ rather than 1♠. That applies both when he's 6313 and when he's 6133. For example, AQxxxx xxx Q Jxx and Axxxxx x A10x xxx are probably both 1♠ bids, but if you weaken the diamonds they might become 2♠ bids.

Anyway, this makes the comparison in my previous post wrong, because I lose to some 1-3 diamond breaks where you may make. What are you going to do after ruffing with the jack and finding the clubs 3-3?

I guess it's tricky since if LHO has QTx and a stiff heart he can put in the ten or queen to induce a cover and then get a ruff. So if he plays low I should play him for ATx. However if I think he's 5233 then ducking a diamond is safe. And if we are getting really deep we might get into stuff like LHO playing the ten from ATx, or playing low from QTx, either of which might mess with me depending what level I'm on. But as you know generally I ignore those possibilities in real life since I don't think they happen.

I assume I'd have a better idea after playing against them that day if 5233 is possible, or if LHO had a stiff heart, or what the significance of the ten from QJT98(2) would be, or if RHO would be likely to bid 3H with 6 hearts and 3S, or 4S with 4522.

TBH I think they're both kinda impossible, and I think it's very likely if LHO has 3 clubs they have a stiff diamond in which case I have no decision in the play after ruffing jack... so it's hard to say what I would do if it mattere... I definitely think being at the table and in the match would help. Maybe it was board 1 though

But I do think AQT of diamonds with RHO is maybe slightly less likely of the 3-1's, he might have doubled if he had the ace of spades and AQT of diamonds (esp if he has the CQ) But I imagine AQx and AQT and ATx are probably all similarly likely so I doubt there's much in it. I am not really that worried about losing the option of playing them for AQT since I think AQx and ATx are all ~equal. I think whatever difference there is would not equal the chance LHO has 6233 with ATx of diamonds, a QJxxxxx xx ATx xx type of hand seems very plausible to me and I don't want to give up on it.

[gnasher]

JLOGIC, on 2013-August-15, 17:05, said:

But I do think AQT of diamonds with RHO is maybe slightly less likely of the 3-1's, he might have doubled if he had the ace of spades and AQT of diamonds (esp if he has the CQ) But I imagine AQx and AQT and ATx are probably all similarly likely so I doubt there's much in it. I am not really that worried about losing the option of playing them for AQT since I think AQx and ATx are all ~equal. I think whatever difference there is would not equal the chance LHO has 6233 with ATx of diamonds, a QJxxxxx xx ATx xx type of hand seems very plausible to me and I don't want to give up on it.

Wouldn't he lead a spade from that (6232 without ♠A)? When he leads a heart I'm inclined to place him with either a singleton heart or the ace of spades.

[JLOGIC]

I would think a heart lead is pretty normal on this auction with that hand, dummys actual shape is fairly likely as well as 0355 or maybe 1255 and declarer bid NT so could easily have the ace of spades or king for a pitch. It's not like we're going to set up a spade trick and a tap is unlikely to prevail with the minors breaking. But it might depend on how often you would expect a 3H bid from partner rather than 3S etc.

edit: though maybe i guess if dummy is 0355 and declarer is 4432 and has the spade king a spade lead could be the killer so maybe you're right.but a heart lead could also be the killer if we set up a heart ruff even in that specific layout, so I dunno.