[wyman]

PassedOut, on 2012-November-05, 12:43, said:

Bush was only in office for 8 years, although it seemed longer...

The rounding that wyman pointed out was your rounding of $5.68 trillion down to $5 trillion.

Actually he rounded it down to 4T, though the article I read (and cited) only attributed 4.9T to the Bush administration. But things would just be better if we'd attach sources to numbers.

[luke warm]

PassedOut, on 2012-November-05, 12:53, said:

Quote

hrothgar, on 2012-November-05, 09:20, said:

The Republican brand is crap any place outside of the old South. (You know why "Independents" are going for Romney in drives this year? Its because most of them are ex-Republicans who can stand to admit to belonging to that party)

On the other hand, the rapist bloc is locked in...

you guys act like northern states haven't elected reps for house and senate seats, not to mention the governorships... speaking of which, yes the reps are dying off but with citizens united and the rep govs killing off the public unions, we're in the money for years to come

[PassedOut]

luke warm, on 2012-November-05, 13:07, said:

northern states haven't elected reps for house and senate seats

Benishek, who claims to be a republican, represents my district. I'll be voting for some local republicans again this year. As to the future of the national party, we'll see how this plays out. Should Romney lose, as seems likely, will the party come back to conservatism or will the extremists become even more entrenched?

How that develops will be interesting to watch over the coming months. If the national republican party doubles down on its fiscal irresponsibility, it becomes difficult to see what about the party could attract a majority of votes.

[luke warm]

hrothgar, on 2012-November-05, 08:44, said:

I am stating outright that you have reduced yourself to a caricature and a joke and that that rest of the forum will be having a pretty good laugh at your expense late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

you can have a really good one... i'll be glad to give you a chance to get your $300 back, if you want... everyone keeps quoting nate silver's odds, but i'm not that greedy... i'll take romney straight up, double or nothing... well, laughing boy? ball's in your court...

[PassedOut]

Just got a robo-call from Bill Clinton supporting Gary McDowell for my congressional district. The ex-president is all in!

[wyman]

luke warm, on 2012-November-05, 13:49, said:

you can have a really good one... i'll be glad to give you a chance to get your $300 back, if you want... everyone keeps quoting nate silver's odds, but i'm not that greedy... i'll take romney straight up, double or nothing... well, laughing boy? ball's in your court...

If this is a $300 bet on Romney PK, I'll be glad to take Obama on hrothgar's behalf.

edit: assuming someone here can vouch for you, or we can escrow with someone here.

[hrothgar]

luke warm, on 2012-November-05, 13:49, said:

you can have a really good one... i'll be glad to give you a chance to get your $300 back, if you want... everyone keeps quoting nate silver's odds, but i'm not that greedy... i'll take romney straight up, double or nothing... well, laughing boy? ball's in your court...

Sure. $300 that Obama wins the electoral vote

[luke warm]

wyman, on 2012-November-05, 14:14, said:

If this is a $300 bet on Romney PK, I'll be glad to take Obama on hrothgar's behalf.

edit: assuming someone here can vouch for you, or we can escrow with someone here.

i was giving him a shot at winning some money back from the primary, at (i'm sure you'd agree) incredible odds... for you, i'd have to consider taking the real pot odds

from peggy noonan's blog and fred barnes' blog, both of whom are recent converts... they were both critical of romney for most of the campaign

as an aside, gallup is now saying they are polling an R+3 turnout... in '08 it was D+7/8

[hrothgar]

luke warm, on 2012-November-05, 14:28, said:

i was giving him a shot at winning some money back from the primary, at (i'm sure you'd agree) incredible odds...

I feel obliged to point out that you graciously didn't want to collect on our original bet, so this isn't so much about winning money back. Also, the bet was over choice of Vice Presidents, not the primary (and I still think that Romney would have been much better off going with Portman...)

[luke warm]

hrothgar, on 2012-November-05, 14:39, said:

I feel obliged to point out that you graciously didn't want to collect on our original bet, so this isn't so much about winning money back. Also, the bet was over choice of Vice Presidents, not the primary (and I still think that Romney would have been much better off going with Portman...)

true, it was on ryan... yeah, i think i said something like "hold on to it, i'm sure we'll find something else to bet on" but my memory may be faulty... what are silver's odds now, about 4:1?

[PassedOut]

hrothgar, on 2012-November-05, 10:34, said:

"Breaking right now on fox news! Over 500 generals and admirals back Mitt Romney"

The weapons industry loves to hire retired generals and admirals. Romney proposes to pump an extra $2 trillion into that gravy train. We can all do the math...

[luke warm]

hrothgar, on 2012-November-05, 14:39, said:

I feel obliged to point out that you graciously didn't want to collect on our original bet, so this isn't so much about winning money back.

found it right here... so i left the acceptance of any future bet entirely up to you

[lalldonn]

luke warm, on 2012-November-05, 13:49, said:

you can have a really good one... i'll be glad to give you a chance to get your $300 back, if you want... everyone keeps quoting nate silver's odds, but i'm not that greedy... i'll take romney straight up, double or nothing... well, laughing boy? ball's in your court...

Can I (the donn half of lalldonn) get in on that? I'll take Obama at any amount you would like up to $300 please. Also I mentioned it to Justin and he would like in for any amount period. I am perfectly happy to go on the honor system. I never ever welch on a bet and both putting money in some kind of escrow is just a needless complication to me. We can just say the loser pays at the San Francisco NABC, with anyone you would like either delivering or collecting the money on your behalf. I will be very easy to find there. The only other option that's convenient for me is to use my online bill pay to send you a check directly from my bank account, and I don't mind receiving a check in the mail either. If that will all be ok then I'm happy to discuss either in this thread or by private message.

If you are not giving us even money, I will still be willing to put up my 300 against your 250.

[mike777]

November 5, 2012

Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey

Early voting so far breaks 49% for Obama and 48% for Romney

by the Gallup Editors


PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are within one percentage point of each other in Gallup's final pre-election survey of likely voters, with Romney holding 49% of the vote, and Obama 48%. After removing the 3% of undecided voters from the results and allocating their support proportionally to the two major candidates, Gallup's final allocated estimate of the race is 50% for Romney and 49% for Obama.

[PassedOut]

With the latest Gallup results showing huge momentum for Obama, Nate Silver has Obama's chances up to 91.4%. Tomorrow looks like an interesting day.

[PassedOut]

This is wild: Pundit accountability: The official 2012 election prediction thread

Both Ezra Klein and Larry Sabato predict that Obama will win with 290 electoral votes. But what really caught my eye was that if you average the predictions of George Will, Dick Morris, and Jim Cramer, you also get exactly 290 electoral votes for Obama. Is Mother Nature's hand in this?

[BunnyGo]

PassedOut, on 2012-November-05, 21:23, said:

This is wild: Pundit accountability: The official 2012 election prediction thread

Both Ezra Klein and Larry Sabato predict that Obama will win with 290 electoral votes. But what really caught my eye was that if you average the predictions of George Will, Dick Morris, and Jim Cramer, you also get exactly 290 electoral votes for Obama. Is Mother Nature's hand in this?

Particularly amusing, Nate is giving less than 1 in 20 that Obama gets exactly 290 votes. It's not one of his top 5 most likely occurrences.

[PassedOut]

BunnyGo, on 2012-November-05, 21:44, said:

Particularly amusing, Nate is giving less than 1 in 20 that Obama gets exactly 290 votes. It's not one of his top 5 most likely occurrences.

Yes. 290 would mean that Romney gets both Virginia and Florida, but it is possible...

[Bbradley62]

PassedOut, on 2012-November-05, 22:01, said:

Yes. 290 would mean that Romney gets both Virginia and Florida, but it is possible...

Or, 290 is:
Obama gets OH, PA, VA, NV, IA, WI, MI
Romney gets NH, CO, FL, NC

[Bbradley62]

PassedOut, on 2012-November-05, 21:23, said:

This is wild: Pundit accountability: The official 2012 election prediction thread

Both Ezra Klein and Larry Sabato predict that Obama will win with 290 electoral votes. But what really caught my eye was that if you average the predictions of George Will, Dick Morris, and Jim Cramer, you also get exactly 290 electoral votes for Obama. Is Mother Nature's hand in this?

Neither Morris nor Cramer can be taken seriously; both are simply trying to create buzz and keep themselves in the spotlight.