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Romney vs. Obama Can Nate Silver be correct?

#481 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-October-21, 10:51

View Postkenberg, on 2012-October-21, 06:54, said:

A bit ago I suggested in an admittedly over-simplified form that the candidates seriously address our aims and policies in the Middle East. Here are a couple of much less simple-minded, and more global, versions one might think about.

David Ignatius has an article in today's Post. I'm not so sure non-subscribers can still read Post columnists online, but the article appears at
http://www.jconline....can-commitments

He refers to an article in the Washington Quarterly by Michael Mazarr. This can be found at
https://csis.org/fil...2FallMazarr.pdf

These guys know more than I do. That doesn't mean that they are right, people can know more than I do and still be wrong, but Ignatius would like to see the candidates address these issues and so would I.

To get back to my more simple-minded formulation, I want any candidate who says that we should bomb Iran on Thursday to tell me what we will be doing on Friday. And on Saturday and Sunday. Dropping bombs is the easy part. Surely we know that by now.


What happens if we bomb Iran? This guy probably doesn't know for sure either, but he probably knows more than all the guys who advocate bombing Iran put together,
If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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#482 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 08:33

View Posty66, on 2012-October-21, 10:51, said:

What happens if we bomb Iran? This guy probably doesn't know for sure either, but he probably knows more than all the guys who advocate bombing Iran put together.

Thanks for the link to this great article. This quote reminded me of what Ken said earlier:

Quote

“Don’t be mistaken, I am not a liberal by point of view,” he went on. “If I thought the use of brute force on Iran would stop the nuclear threat in the region and to Israel, that would be one thing. I am judging things from a practical point of view. . . . You have to take into consideration the following questions about an Israeli attack: What would be achieved? What about five minutes after? And what are the consequences of such an attack?”

Dagan answers those questions simply: “An Israeli bombing would lead to a regional war and solve the internal problems of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It would galvanize Iranian society behind the leadership and create unity around the nuclear issue. And it would justify Iran in rebuilding its nuclear project and saying, ‘Look, see, we were attacked by the Zionist enemy and we clearly need to have it.’ A bombing would be considered an act of war, and there would be an unpredictable counterattack against us. And the Iranians can call on their proxy, Hezbollah, which, with its rockets, can hit practically any target in Israel.”

Meir Dagan, Director of the Mossad, 2002-2011

The close relationship between Bibi Netanyahu and Mitt Romney concerns me. Tonight's debate should prove interesting.
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#483 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 09:38

The New Yorker endorses Obama.

Quote

The reelection of Barack Obama is a matter of great urgency. Not only are we in broad agreement with his policy directions; we also see in him what is absent in Mitt Romney—a first-rate political temperament and a deep sense of fairness and integrity. A two-term Obama Administration will leave an enduringly positive imprint on political life. It will bolster the ideal of good governance and a social vision that tempers individualism with a concern for community. Every Presidential election involves a contest over the idea of America. Obama’s America—one that progresses, however falteringly, toward social justice, tolerance, and equality—represents the future that this country deserves.

If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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#484 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 10:49

View Posty66, on 2012-October-22, 09:38, said:

The New Yorker endorses Obama.



great quote.


I really like how that last sentence sums up the President's agenda and vision.

Every Presidential election involves a contest over the idea of America. Obama’s America—one that progresses, however falteringly, toward social justice, tolerance, and equality—represents the future that this country deserves.
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#485 User is offline   dwar0123 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 10:49

View Posty66, on 2012-October-21, 10:51, said:

What happens if we bomb Iran? This guy probably doesn't know for sure either, but he probably knows more than all the guys who advocate bombing Iran put together,

Great article, from it, my word for the day.

Quote

somnambulant

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#486 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 11:03

In these times when senators like Dick Lugar find themselves pushed out because they can work together with democrats on occasion, it's nice to read this tribute to George McGovern from Bob Dole:

Quote

I am sure there are some who were surprised by the long friendship that George and I shared. After all, before his death this weekend at age 90, he was a proud and unapologetic liberal Democrat and I am a lifelong Republican. As chairman of the Republican Party, I did what I could to ensure the defeat of his 1972 run for the White House. When the election was over, however, George and I knew that we couldn’t keep on campaigning forever. We also knew that what we had in common was far more important than our different political philosophies.

The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#487 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 11:33

View PostPassedOut, on 2012-October-22, 11:03, said:

In these times when senators like Dick Lugar find themselves pushed out because they can work together with democrats on occasion, it's nice to read this tribute to George McGovern from Bob Dole:




Yes, my first vote ever...I think I was one of the few in the country to vote for him in 72. :)
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#488 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 12:30

granted this is from a conservative source, but if true it could cause a ruckus ... secret message?
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
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#489 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 14:16

View Postluke warm, on 2012-October-22, 12:30, said:

granted this is from a conservative source, but if true it could cause a ruckus ... secret message?

There was a poll question on the page with this "news story." It asked who I believed won the second presidential debate. After I answered that question another question appeared asking me who I thought would win the senatorial race in New Jersey - Robert Menendez or Joe Kyrillos. Anyone who knows anything about this race knows that Bob Menendez is a heavy favorite - Nate Silver has Bob Menendez with about a 16% lead in the polls, and a chance of winning at about 99%. But on this site, there was a 2-1 margin that Joe Kyrillos would win. Not which candidate they were voting for, but the candidate they thought would win!

Clearly the people who frequent this site have a very loose grasp on reality.
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#490 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 15:39

View PostArtK78, on 2012-October-22, 14:16, said:

Clearly the people who frequent this site have a very loose grasp on reality.

so i take it you lend no credence to the story? as i said, it may not be true at all ("if true")... i guess we'll find out
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
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#491 User is offline   dwar0123 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 16:05

View Postluke warm, on 2012-October-22, 15:39, said:

so i take it you lend no credence to the story? as i said, it may not be true at all ("if true")... i guess we'll find out

I would guess that every modern president has conceded Iran's right to nuclear technology.

There are three things going on here, both of which are the reason you are not taken seriously on this forum.

1. That you would actually think the President would say such a thing in the context in which you are understanding it.

2. That you can't realize that the context is absurd and then deduce that the actual context for the quote(assuming the quote is real) is that it is relating to medical and energy nuclear technology. Though with the caveat with respect to nuclear energy technology, it being of the non weaponizable type.

3. That you would read and post from a site that abuses context so absurdly that meaningful conversation can not even begin.
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#492 User is offline   jonottawa 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 16:22

View Postdwar0123, on 2012-October-22, 16:05, said:

There are three things going on here, both of which are the reason you are not taken seriously on this forum.


LOL
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#493 User is offline   dwar0123 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 16:26

View Postjonottawa, on 2012-October-22, 16:22, said:

LOL

:)

Good catch, there were two originally, but I thought of a 3rd :)
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#494 User is offline   Flem72 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 16:29

I just wanted to get on record now, to complain, before the fact, about Schieffer's ridiculous display of liberal bias.

No sour grapes from me....

EDIT: he did a good job suppressing his inclinations and actually moderating. Kudos.
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#495 User is online   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 16:47

I hereby state that I recognize Luke Warm's nuclear rights. Or lack thereof. Also, I was doing some yard work and recognized the poison ivy.

There will be some delicate stuff to deal with here. My skepticism is not particularly that the story comes from a conservative source, I wouldn't trust such an announcement from a liberal source either. (no, a liberal source wouldn't print it, but they print different crap.) The real problem will be when (or if) the negotiators (if/when there are some) announce a satisfactory agreement that will allow Iran to develop nuclear technology in a manner that does not lead to nuclear weapons. My guess is any agreement will be along such lines. Will we believe that the safeguards are adequate? Our government will say that they are. There will be skeptics. For me at least, this also will not be a matter of left or right, Obama or Romney. I am a trusting sort of guy, but I try not to be totally naive. Politicians have been known to spin the truth.
Ken
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#496 User is online   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 20:48

I missed the first part of the debate but caught the last. I believe I can render a verdict. Obama will get a second term.
Ken
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#497 User is offline   lalldonn 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 21:17

View Postkenberg, on 2012-October-22, 20:48, said:

I missed the first part of the debate but caught the last. I believe I can render a verdict. Obama will get a second term.

I hope you caught the moment when Obama made his comment about bayonets and horses and that it's not a game of battleship. That made Romney look really really bad. So did the part where Romney criticized Obama for for not going to Israel on a particular trip to the Middle East and Obama responded by recapping where he has gone in Israel. As for Romney, he kept repeating that "4 years closer to a nuclear Iran" which seems like a weak scare tactic to me. We are also four years closer to Iran no longer existing, the US sinking into the ocean, Bob Hamman's 100th bridge world championship, and anything else that hasn't happened yet and may or may never happen in the future.
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#498 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 21:54

Well Obama certainly wasn't passive about pointing out Romney's meandering positions this time. Here we laughed at "Obama's bin Laden", and couldn't figure out what Romney meant by saying that Syria is Iran's route to the sea. He must have meant something else, but what?
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#499 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 22:05

View Postlalldonn, on 2012-October-22, 21:17, said:

I hope you caught the moment when Obama made his comment about bayonets and horses and that it's not a game of battleship. That made Romney look really really bad.


The bayonets and horses line was very clever and made for a nice sound bite.

It also did answer Romney's claim that our navy will soon become the smallest since 1917.
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#500 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-October-22, 22:26

I totally agree with the points made about Iran.


1) The world does not think what happens after we bomb Iran.
2) The world does not think what happens if Iran gets the bomb.


fwiw see the world and personal diarys of France/England/Poland just before ww11

I think we all can agree we know more and write more about Lohan or Kardashians...
or Fashion Police on tv...see friday ...:)
---


side note as I am sure all forum posters see....Syria spilling into:

Turkey
Jordan
Lebanon
Iraq
more?

War is always just another form of Politics

Politics is or infects much if not most...
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