Phil, on 2012-July-01, 22:08, said:
Count the tricks - I don't think its enough.
The line I gave is clear if East leads a minor. Say he leads heart ace and then a spade. North wins, cashes a spade, plays two more rounds of trump ending in South, cashes two spades pitching clubs. Now he has four spades and four hearts and a diamond ruff coming, so E/W cannot give him any other trick. He calls for the diamond king; West must win. If west now plays a club (ace or low, it doesn't matter) then the club king is trick ten. So west plays another diamond; let's say the nine. North covers with the jack, East covers with the queen, and South ruffs. North ruffs a club back to hand; his last cards are
♥8
♦86 with South having nothing useful. East has
♦T3 and West has
♦7. North plays the
♦8 smothering the seven, forcing a diamond trick. If West had played the diamond seven instead of the nine, North would cover cheaply and come to an equivalent position.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit