[shevek]

---

IMPs. 14-16 notrump & transfer
Your lead

[MrAce]

I lead my longest and best suit and i lead low because i dont wanna ruin it incase pd has something like Ax because i dont have side entry. Or one of the opponents has stiff A.

Of course that would suck if declarer has some thing like AJ doubleton or Ax vs Jx but if thats the case then some of the time we lead top ♦ the suit will be blocked originally or cho will block it

[mike777]

3d

[lamford]

If I had the 8 of diamonds instead of the 7 I would lead a top diamond.

[shevek]

---

As you see, a diamond is no good. All declarers who got a diamond lead made 9 tricks, doing the normal thing in hearts.
The declarers who received a heart lead all failed. The play is interesting.

You win the heart to play a spade to the J-Q.
North returns an honest ♦9. You finesse to South's ♦Q who exits with - say - a heart.
If the next trick goes ♠9-T-K-A, you are down, making no spade tricks since South's ♠8 is master.

Should you cover ♠10? It's not clear.
If North has ♠A86 left, the suit is doomed. You'll probably need clubs 3-3, or maybe stripping red suits to throw North in with a club. That would work but it's obscure.
Winning is to duck South's ♠10. You can win South's exit, play 2 rounds of clubs if you like to get that bad news, then make on 3-3 spades.

That seem the best shot to me.

However, South should not cover ♠9! Declarer will likely fly king, not wanting to go down in an embarrassing fashion when South started with ♠A83.

Still, if South had ♠A together with ♦KQxxx(x), a diamond would have been led. Quite puzzling.

[JLOGIC]

What kind of lead is a heart lol. Partner didn't even double hearts given the opportunity.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

a low diamond is the normal / wtp lead.

If you dont want to lead diamond, I would go with a club.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[shevek]

Okay so 100% for a low diamond seems clear.
This wins when partner has ♦A-x, okay opp ♦J-x.

If you agree that dummy is unlikely to have a stiff diamond and declarer virtually certain to have 3 or 4, partner has 1 or 2. The winning layout is heavily odds against.

The case for a heart is certainly stronger at matchpoints.

[Statto]

I lead a ♣, hoping to find partner's long suit, as they're the one with the side entry.

[rhm]

JLOGIC, on 2012-April-16, 05:20, said:

What kind of lead is a heart lol. Partner didn't even double hearts given the opportunity.

You might want to read Notrump Opening Leads from David Bird.
You will be surprised. It is one of the few new books in the last years which have given me some new insights into this game.
One aspect of the book is that it argues quite convincingly that it is a myth that leading from your longest and strongest from such hands is a long term winning strategy, whether matchpoints or IMPs, though the case against a diamond lead is of course stronger at matchpoints.

It is true that partner did not double 2♥. However, the case for a heart lead is that it

a) is much less likely to cost
b) it might still establish some tricks for the defense
c) the main argument, however, is that the chances to establish diamonds and being able to run them are quite poor

At Imps, if we assume the contract might be defeated, deals where the declarer has no clear route to 9 tricks are frequent, unless the defense is helpful. The notion that every 3NT contract is a race, who can establish his suit first, is too simplistic.

Rainer Herrmann

[MrAce]

Deleted