[A2003]

1NT range 15-17
19 out of 73 teams downgraded the hand with 18HCP. Any reasons?
How to stop and recognize this hand is not a slam hand?

[inquiry]

 A2003, on 2012-April-22, 10:23, said:

1NT range 15-17
19 out of 73 teams downgraded the hand with 18HCP. Any reasons?
How to stop and recognize this hand is not a slam hand?

Depending upon the meaning of 3NT, this seems a reasonable auction. Here 3NT was 14-16, other ranges people play are 13-15 and 15-17. Opposite a 13-15, with 18 hcp, you probably should pass as east. Opposite a 15-17 you would also bid 4NT, and west (with only 14) would pass.

If you play 1m-3NT shows 15-17, you might start with an inverted minor suit raise, and the result would be that west shows less than 15 and a balanced hand, then the contract probably ends up in 3NT. Also if you play 1m-2NT as natural, and either (12)13-14 or 18+ you end up in 3nt via 1♦-2NT-3NT ALL PASS

The "trick" if there is a trick to this hand, is for east to do no more than invite slam and for west to know the range he has shown. 18+14 is just shy of the magic 33 needed.


No one should downgrade east and open 1NT.

---

[Stephen Tu]

 A2003, on 2012-April-22, 10:23, said:

1NT range 15-17
19 out of 73 teams downgraded the hand with 18HCP. Any reasons?

- a few might be playing 16-18 range
- a lot of players have bad mentality of "my partner's declarer play sucks compared to mine, thus I will bid 1nt so I can declare", and play essentially a 14-18 1nt opening . With a 19-21 2nt opening.

Quote

How to stop and recognize this hand is not a slam hand?

It's flat, flat vs. flat supposedly needs around 33 hcp, only want to be there when partner is max. Furthermore, on this hand you have an awful lot of points in your short major suits. Which are also partner's short suits since 3nt denied majors. That should point to very likely duplication of values (if partner's values were all in minors, he might have chosen minor raise or other minor, in preference to 3nt). High cards in short suits are worth less than points in long suits, because they don't work to establish cashing 4th and fifth cards. So with this hand, you should be able to work out not to invite, and just play 3nt.

Also, BTW on your auction 4c should NOT be Gerber, it should explore for club slam. 4c never should be Gerber over 3nt. Also, learn not to ask for aces on slam *try* hands. Just because one isn't off two aces off the top, doesn't mean you have enough power + distribution to actually take 12 tricks in the end. Ask for aces when you already know you are strong enough to take 12 tricks, *unless* you are off two aces off the top. Blkwood/Gerber are to *avoid* bad slams, not to *try* for slams. If you are still in slam *try* mode, cue-bid, or make a quantitative invite.

[aguahombre]

Interesting score distribution. Would have expected 630's across the board except for a couple cowboys, for a very small IMP+, or at MP about 55%.

Also see little or no point in opening 1D, when we always plan to jump to 2NT and never intend to rebid in clubs; but that is beside the point here, since even if the point ranges for 2NT or 3NT in response might be different over 1C than 1D, the result on this board should be the same.

[Stephen Tu]

 aguahombre, on 2012-April-22, 11:47, said:

Interesting score distribution. Would have expected 630's across the board except for a couple cowboys, for a very small IMP+, or at MP about 55%.

In a random BBO field, there are probably considerably large # of partnerships who don't have an idea what the range of 1m-3nt is. SAYC supposedly 1m-2nt is 13-15, so 3nt is more, then you are getting to slam. But maybe half the people think 2nt is inv only? So you've got maybe a quarter of pickup partnerships blowing it on range mismatch alone plus some overbidders.

[aguahombre]

 Stephen Tu, on 2012-April-22, 12:08, said:

In a random BBO field, there are probably considerably large # of partnerships who don't have an idea what the range of 1m-3nt is. SAYC supposedly 1m-2nt is 13-15, so 3nt is more, then you are getting to slam. But maybe half the people think 2nt is inv only? So you've got maybe a quarter of pickup partnerships blowing it on range mismatch alone plus some overbidders.

Of course, you are right. I meant what I should expect; the rest is gravy.

[barmar]

 Stephen Tu, on 2012-April-22, 12:08, said:

In a random BBO field, there are probably considerably large # of partnerships who don't have an idea what the range of 1m-3nt is. SAYC supposedly 1m-2nt is 13-15, so 3nt is more, then you are getting to slam. But maybe half the people think 2nt is inv only? So you've got maybe a quarter of pickup partnerships blowing it on range mismatch alone plus some overbidders.

I'll bet that at least 75% of people who say they're playing SAYC play 2NT invitational there. I wouldn't be surprised if it's over 90%.

[Statto]

 barmar, on 2012-April-22, 14:14, said:

I'll bet that at least 75% of people who say they're playing SAYC play 2NT invitational there. I wouldn't be surprised if it's over 90%.

I hope not. The SAYC treatment is good here. 2NT is GF and affords opportunity for slam exploration, and potential for strain exploration.

Whatever the range for 2NT, 3NT is not some other range. It is a hand with a long running suit (most likely ♣) that hopes to make on that basis. IMO.

But it seems there is more than one school of thought here...

[Stephen Tu]

 Statto, on 2012-April-22, 19:57, said:

I hope not. The SAYC treatment is good here. 2NT is GF and affords opportunity for slam exploration, and potential for strain exploration.

Whatever the range for 2NT, 3NT is not some other range. It is a hand with a long running suit (most likely ♣) that hopes to make on that basis. IMO.

Not true. SAYC booklet specifies 3nt as 16-18 (16-17 might be better), as it is in most older versions of SA based on Goren. It's a bulky, awkward. rare bid, but it's also an awkward range to show by other methods. Long running suits can always strong jump shift, or bid suit then gamble NT later. But with balanced hand with extras, below your strong jump shift followed by NT range, you can often get endplayed out of showing your extra values after you start some other way. A 2nt bid is only inv, so you have to bid 3nt, but you don't really have enough to bid 4nt. Or you try to go through 4sf, but again partner stymies you by bidding 2nt+, and again you have choice of 3nt concealing extras, overbid, or more distortion. Then if partner also has some extra undisclosed values, a decent slam can be missed.