ggwhiz, on 2012-March-22, 11:43, said:
I agree with all of the above with the possible exception that I may well double 3nt if they bid it if there is even the slightest thought/reluctance.
Even with a smooth 3nt bid I only risk 4 imps IF they can sit and make it, (I can't imagine overtricks) and I might chase them into something I can really hammer.
Whadya think Mike?
If LHO is bidding 3N, and that seems most plausible.....our major holdings suggest he probably lacks a 6th spade or a 4th heart, and our minor holdings suggest he is likely to have at least length, if not strength, in diamonds.....and we double, we are getting a diamond lead for sure. I mean, even if partner's diamonds are weakish, to the point that he might consider another lead, our double is a strong suggestion to lead diamonds...we'd typically hold Hx and some scattered cards including a club stop or two.
And if there is one thing that we can say with some confidence it is that unless partner had very good diamonds, we don't want him to lead that suit.
Not only is he likely giving away a trick, unless he has very good diamonds, but he is possibly yielding a tempo (often critical when, as here, we will often hold only a single stop in their main source of tricks) and our void will tell dealer more than we'd like him to know about our hand, especially after we double and place some hcp for him.
While I agree that the cost of a double will usually be low, if they were always making, my fears are:
1. we increase the odds of their making by doubling, for the reasons above
2. it is not normal for the opps to run...and if they do maybe they run from a failing 3N to a making 4
♣...i agree...that isn't at all likely, but neither is the chance that your speculatve double will cause them to run
3. it strikes me as improbable that they are going for their life. It's not as if we are cashing a lot of winners in our hand, and we seem to have a slight problem helping partner out in the diamond department.
So the downside may be modest, apart from (1) but the upside even more so.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari