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I did the manual search that barmar suggested. On the first 50 hands where 3NT could be set, the "normal conventional lead" (you'd have to trust my judgement on this) would be best 38 times. Note that this does not mean that on 12 out of 50 hands 3NT would not be down, it could still be down but fewer tricks. I would rather see the leads that beat the contract being highlighted, but unfortunately I think that DMP doesn't do that. I checked a few hands though and on those hands it was the same.
Stayman with 4333?
#41
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Posted 2012-March-23, 15:13
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.
- hrothgar
- hrothgar
#42
- Andy Bowles
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Posted 2012-March-23, 16:16
han, on 2012-March-23, 14:15, said:
Opener: 15-17 HCP, 4-5 hearts, either balanced or 1-4-4-4 with a singleton spade top-honor or 2-4-(52).
Responder: 3-4-3-3 with 9 HCP.
1000 double dummy hands. Results:
3NT makes 444 times.
4H makes 375 times.
The leads numbers:
3NT: 154-58-111-233
4H: 68-64-134-359
Responder: 3-4-3-3 with 9 HCP.
1000 double dummy hands. Results:
3NT makes 444 times.
4H makes 375 times.
The leads numbers:
3NT: 154-58-111-233
4H: 68-64-134-359
OK, that is interesting. Can you have a quick look through the hands and tell us what distinguishes the 3NT ones from the 4H ones?
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#43
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Interests:Bridge, Poker, but not in conflation.
Statistics, but not massaged by the media.
Posted 2012-March-23, 21:52
When single-dummy simulations are a lot better, and we can input our individual styles in detail, we will get nearer some kind of proof. Until then the results are very interesting 
A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem Albert Einstein
#44
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Posted 2012-March-27, 11:50
have any of you used bridgebrowser to study leads on 3NT?
#45
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Posted 2012-March-27, 12:27
Quote
I would rather see the leads that beat the contract being highlighted, but unfortunately I think that DMP doesn't do that.
It does that.
You just have to choose exact contract instead of amount of tricks to take in given suit/NT before calcs are done.
Then when you browse the hands it doesn't highlights any leads on hands when contract makes and highlights winning leads on hands when contract doesn't make.