Random but probably better than BBO avg opps, matchpoints.
1D is generally 5+, 4 only with 5C or 4-4-4-1 (any).
You lead A♠ (good/bad ?).
The first trick goes:
A♠, 3♠, 2♠, J♠
You play UDCA so partner plays the 2 from 92 or stiff 2

What now ?
(note for people having problems with directions: dummy is at the bottom and we are on the right, the bidding covers the table, green area is outside the table).