Flameous, on 2011-December-14, 06:40, said:
Declarer seems to be holding 6331 shape. If I'm right we can beat AQJxxx AQx T9x x. We need partner holding DJ because otherwise declarer has no D losers if he runs DJ next.
We can't spare a diamond cause then declarer could duck one round and throw a heart to fourth D. We also can't obviously pitch two hearts but one should suffice. Clubs are seemingly useless but we may need two of them to escape an endplay later depending what declarer does. If declarer continues with a spade to partner's king, we must discard a club.
For signaling purposes, we need partner to play a heart to take us off coming endplay, so CQ seems like the right first discard to guide partner.
It seems fairly easy to make when he has that hand. the Q next will drop the J and a diamond to the T enforces and endplay anyway. I think declarer is more likely 6-4-2-1 but with poor hearts. This is more consistend with partners bidding, a surely he would not enter the auction with Qxxx xx Jx KJTxx. That seems like a penalty try even NV. Suppose partner has instead a stiff heart honour, Qxxx A jxx KJTxx this seems like a mch better looking overcall. With only Qxxx h and partner making a responsive double rather than bidding hearts it was obvious to play there. A nother possibility is that partner has KQxx x Jxx KJTxx, or KQxx xx Jx KJTxx.
At any rate I should pitch a top club on the first one. If partner wins this spade and returns a heart I am pretty happy and will exit a club obviously. Assuming partner does not have a spade winner I will pitch a diamond next, playing declarer for 6421, and partner to have a stiff heart honour. I dont think we can beat it legit on a hand where declarer has T9x d and I think they would have started the suit by running the T anyway. If he has J9x diamond in hand he is always cold I think. And will not go wrong with partner 45 in the blacks.
Also, if declarer has the heart ace partner must have a spade trick. So partner needs the stiff ace of hearts if partner cant win this trick else he has ten tricks. I just have to remember that on this layout i cannot afford two clubs, because it might expose me to an endplay in the diamond and heart suits. Suppose its a bit like a stepping stone. If he plays a heart to the stiff ace rho will exit a club, so I need to keep my exit cards to prevent him getting to dummy. Especially if declarer has Jx diamonds. but even with xx he can exit low to the Q. Of course, in theory partner can break this up by playing a diamond after the stiff ace of hearts wins but that is just never going to happen.
The physics is theoretical, but the fun is real. - Sheldon Cooper