[gnasher]

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EW open 1♣ on all weak notrumps that don't have a five-card major, so 1♣ could be as extreme as 3352, but not usually 2452.

West leads ♠2, which shows an even number. If you play high, East plays the jack, ostensibly upside-down count (but presumably intended as something else).

Plan the play.

[whereagles]

high spade, then finesse diamond. Assuming this holds, cash 2nd diamond and watch carding. If diamonds rate to be 3-3, cash another. Else play a club up, intending to later finesse through RHO if J or T appear 1st round.

Subsequent plays depend on how it goes.

[Fluffy]

a little counting seems to put RHO on all high cards left, endplay him!

♦ to the jack and a spade from hand to get rid of his spade exit as soon as possible sounds best, but the continuations are too many to have a full picture of the possibilities.

[gnasher]

Quote

high spade, then finesse diamond. Assuming this holds, cash 2nd diamond and watch carding. If diamonds rate to be 3-3

♦J holds. On the next round of the suit, LHO follows small and RHO plays the queen, but you can expect RHO to make routine falsecards routinely. If the opponents signal anything on these tricks, it's unlikely to be count.

Quote

♦ to the jack and a spade from hand

♦J holds. LHO wins ♠A and exits with a diamond.

[mikeh]

rethought

[semeai]

RHO should have all high cards except ♠A, excluding maybe ♥J.

We have one loser to burn and seemingly nothing to gain from keeping diamond honors, so I'll hook the diamond and cash ♦AK unless someone shows out.

My plan now is to lead a spade through West at a point when he has no more clubs. This should endplay him into giving me my second spade trick (and I hope to take 6 minor suit tricks and a heart trick) or into leading hearts, at which point I'll play him to have at least one of ♥J10.

Accordingly, I lead ♣K from hand. Assuming East lets me win this, I lead low to ♣J. If East now wins and finds the spade exit and clubs are 3-3, West can win ♠A and play back a club and I'm now sunk if diamonds were 4-2, but if they were 3-3 I'm home by endplaying East in hearts.

If East instead exits a club after winning ♣J (possibly after cashing a long diamond) I have to guess clubs and then lead a spade up.

[semeai]

mikeh, on 2011-July-27, 09:45, said:

At trick 4 exit the spade....LHO has to win else he is giving up. He can't exit clubs or spades

Right, I was thinking he could exit clubs, but he can't do that if diamonds were 3-3 or we can then cash our 6 minor suit winners and endplay RHO in hearts, so your line of a spade at trick four five is best then.

If instead diamonds were 2-4, a club exit is fine for them, so I think you need my line of clearing clubs first. (I understand you were assuming a specific distribution.)

[mikeh]

Ok.....win the spade, diamond to the J, cash a top diamond.

Exit a spade.

There are several cases:

1. LHO has 4 diamonds, and rho is 2=4=2=5
2. Diamonds are 3-3, and rho is (probably) 2=4=3=4
3. LHO has 2 diamonds and rho is (probably) 2=4=4=3, tho he might be 2=3=4=4 his spade J suggests the former.

Case one....LHO will exit the diamond, and rho has to pitch a club...else we play on hearts forcing him to eventually give dummy the lead with the club J.

We win the diamond perforce, and play the club K which rho has to duck. We lead a club to the Jack, rho has to win and return a club, so we win the 9, cash the last club and with Q Q7x void void in dummy and void K98x void void in hand we play a heart to the 7 (playing the Q if LHO inserts an honour....intending to play him for Hx)....rho wins and is endplayed. We ose a spade, a club and 2 hearts.

Case 2: again lho exits a diamond and we play as in case 1. If lho exits a heart, we win in hand, cash the diamond, and lead the club K, compelling rho to duck, then a heart to the Queen and the A...rho cashes his second heart winner and exits a heart, and we lead a club to the Jack...forcing him to win and endplaying him in clubs.

Case 3. LHO wins the spade and has to exit. He leads a heart. We win the heart in hand, lead the club K and rho clears the diamonds. We lead a club to the Q, rho wins, cashes a diamond and a heart and down we go. Oh well.....note that if LHO had Jx or 10x (or J10), we'd probably be ok.

[whereagles]

gnasher, on 2011-July-27, 08:14, said:

♦J holds. On the next round of the suit, LHO follows small and RHO plays the queen, but you can expect RHO to make routine falsecards routinely. If the opponents signal anything on these tricks, it's unlikely to be count.

Then I'll probably fall for the falsecard and play a club up.

[FrancesHinden]

semeai, on 2011-July-27, 09:46, said:

RHO should have all high cards except ♠A, excluding maybe ♥J.

We have one loser to burn and seemingly nothing to gain from keeping diamond honors, so I'll hook the diamond and cash ♦AK unless someone shows out.

My plan now is to lead a spade through West at a point when he has no more clubs. This should endplay him into giving me my second spade trick (and I hope to take 6 minor suit tricks and a heart trick) or into leading hearts, at which point I'll play him to have at least one of ♥J10.

Accordingly, I lead ♣K from hand. Assuming East lets me win this, I lead low to ♣J. If East now wins and finds the spade exit and clubs are 3-3, West can win ♠A and play back a club and I'm now sunk if diamonds were 4-2, but if they were 3-3 I'm home by endplaying East in hearts.

If East instead exits a club after winning ♣J (possibly after cashing a long diamond) I have to guess clubs and then lead a spade up.

This is exactly the line chosen against me by the other declarer in the same match on the same auction (although admittedly he got an 'attitude' 2 of spades lead rather than an 'even number of spades' lead)

[mikeh]

semeai, on 2011-July-27, 09:46, said:

<snipped>
Accordingly, I lead ♣K from hand. Assuming East lets me win this, I lead low to ♣J. If East now wins and finds the spade exit and clubs are 3-3, West can win ♠A and play back a club and I'm now sunk if diamonds were 4-2, but if they were 3-3 I'm home by endplaying East in hearts.

If East instead exits a club after winning ♣J (possibly after cashing a long diamond) I have to guess clubs and then lead a spade up.

How can both minors be 3-3 given the information about the spade suit?

I may be missing something, but I don't find this line persuasive....aren't you going down, unnecessarily, when RHO is 2=4=2=5? You can't, I think, prevail when RHO is 2=4=4=3. And both your line and mine work on 2=4=3=4: the edge being that mine works on (most) 2=4=2=5 hands as well. Anyway, I shouldn't be posting right now....I am wasting time I need for other (paying) matters

[Fluffy]

after LHO flies with ♠A to play a diamond I cash ♦AK and lead ♣KQ from hand

[semeai]

mikeh, on 2011-July-28, 14:47, said:

How can both minors be 3-3 given the information about the spade suit?

I may be missing something, but I don't find this line persuasive....aren't you going down, unnecessarily, when RHO is 2=4=2=5? You can't, I think, prevail when RHO is 2=4=4=3. And both your line and mine work on 2=4=3=4: the edge being that mine works on (most) 2=4=2=5 hands as well. Anyway, I shouldn't be posting right now....I am wasting time I need for other (paying) matters

Yes, the 3-3 both minors comment was irrelevant.

We both make on 2=4=3=4 (with my follow-up comment that I should switch to playing a spade at trick 5 if diamonds are 3-3), you make most 2=4=2=5's and I make most 2=3=4=4's. The latter are more common, aren't they?

Added: Perhaps you're right about ♠J showing hearts. In any case, if diamonds are 4=2 (and then RHO is 2=4=2=5 or 2=3=2=6), I can still make by playing ♣K and shifting to spades if it wins, if LHO has J or 10 of hearts, I think.

[mikeh]

semeai, on 2011-July-28, 15:15, said:

Yes, the 3-3 both minors comment was irrelevant.

We both make on 2=4=3=4 (with my follow-up comment that I should switch to playing a spade at trick 5 if diamonds are 3-3), you make most 2=4=2=5's and I make most 2=3=4=4's. The latter are more common, aren't they?

Added: Perhaps you're right about ♠J showing hearts. In any case, if diamonds are 4=2 (and then RHO is 2=4=2=5 or 2=3=2=6), I can still make by playing ♣K and shifting to spades if it wins, if LHO has J or 10 of hearts, I think.

Looking back at my lines of play...line 3 was garbled. I win the first spade and hook the ♦, cash a ♦ and exit a spade, forcing LHO to win. The analysis is complex (at least, for me), but I think that LHO can't lead a club if he has 3.....I win cheaply in hand, cash the diamond to get it out of the way and lead the club K and rho has to duck twice...and now the 3rd club, if I read it, endplays him into breaking hearts after he cashes a diamond.

If LHO has 2 clubs, he can lead the suit, giving me a trick, but endplaying me...rho ducks, wins the 3rd round and exits a diamond both clearing the suit and endplaying me....if I cash the diamond before the 3rd round of clubs...he cashes his diamond and endplays me with a club...and I must lose 2 hearts, unless LHO has J10 tight, which he won't since we are assuming he is 6=3=2=2.


So when rho is 2=4=4=3, lho switches to a heart and I am down unless LHO started with Hx in hearts. Meanwhile, I fail on all 2=3=4=4s.

A priori (I hope Cherdano doesn't get annoyed with me), your line caters to more layouts, but a posteriori, after the spade J, it is my belief that my line caters to more at the table layouts....I don't think rho is as likely to be 2=3=4=4 as the a priori odds suggest.

[semeai]

mikeh, on 2011-July-28, 18:29, said:

Looking back at my lines of play...line 3 was garbled. I win the first spade and hook the ♦, cash a ♦ and exit a spade, forcing LHO to win. The analysis is complex (at least, for me), but I think that LHO can't lead a club if he has 3.....I win cheaply in hand, cash the diamond to get it out of the way and lead the club K and rho has to duck twice...and now the 3rd club, if I read it, endplays him into breaking hearts after he cashes a diamond

Good find. This would make the two lines quite close, with yours then likely getting the edge if the ♠J shows heart suit preference.

[mikeh]

So what happened? Enquiring minds want to know.

[gnasher]

West was 6232 with ♣10 and ♥10, so most lines will work. 3NT made in both rooms.

I actually faced a more complex problem: 2♠ was systemically spades and a minor, and there was evidence on their convention card that they had recently switched from playing attitude leads to their current methods. Hence I had to decide whether LHO had forgotten his bidding system, forgotten his leads, or remembered both but decided to show a two-suiter with something like Axxxxx xx 10xxx x.

The line I played was: diamond to the jack, top diamond, top club, club to the jack. That worked on the actual layout - they could cash a spade and exit with a diamond, but then I could just cash clubs and play a heart to the 7. This would still have worked if RHO had held ♣10 - LHO could insert his heart honour, but I would cover, finesse the heart return, and then endplay RHO a second time.* This is basically Semai's line except that I haven't cashed the diamond.

* Edit: if RHO had had a club guard, it would be even simpler just to endplay him with the fourth round of clubs, giving me an entry to dummy's winners.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2011-July-30, 12:13