[Fluffy]

---

This is match points, so the overtrick matters a lot.

Opponents lead ♠9, assuming west assists to 2 rounds of the pointed suit(s) you wanna test, how do you tackle the club?

[helene_t]

so both pointed suits appear to be 2-4 and we play three rounds? Then I would play E for the queen as I can't afford to lose the lead to him. Also clubs are probably 2-3 so it is a 60% chance.

[inquiry]

So if I read this correctly, West bid 3♥ and follows to two rounds of both spades and diamonds? On the diamonds, no Jack to Ten has shown. Is this correct? Also, East has not dropped the ♠JT on the first two rounds of spades (eliminating, 4=2 spade split with four in West).

The only time cashing top club then hook East is necessary is if East holds four clubs and West a singleton Queen. For that to happen, the hand would have to be something like East 2♠=3♥=4♦=4♣. I suspect (it is not for certain) that with this hand, East's two spades are likely JT doubleton unless EW play 2nd highest leads (no mention of that). So to probtect against a 1=4 club split with stiff queen (20% chance), you give up on picking up four to the queen with East (80% of 1-4 splits).

So without a lot of further thought, I will take the first round hook in clubs through East. After all, it is just matchpoints.

I expect this to work around 65% of the time, give or take a few percent.

[whereagles]

yeah, run jack. Digs out Q fourth.

[JLOGIC]

Obv cash the ace since this was posted on the forums!

You did well not to pass 3H X.

[chasetb]

GIB says there's only an 10.91% chance of Q singleton with West, and another 7.27% chance of West having Qx, assuming West has 7 for the 3♥ pre-empt. Give West 8 of them, and only a 10% chance of a singleton Q♣. So percentage screams hooking East the first round. Of course, since you posted this hand, it must be correct to drop that pesky Queen-gleton.

[Fluffy]

obviously east has more average clubs, the problem is how do you weight against a random opp the fact that he overcalled 3♥ with only 4 HCP if he doesn't hold the queen.

[mtvesuvius]

Fluffy, on 2011-March-26, 16:40, said:

obviously east has more average clubs, the problem is how do you weight against a random opp the fact that he overcalled 3♥ with only 4 HCP if he doesn't hold the queen.

He's W/R at MPs.

[inquiry]

mtvesuvius, on 2011-March-26, 16:42, said:

He's W/R at MPs.

Exactly. In fact, I wiould not necessarily even credit him with seven hearts, chances has to be close to equal that he has only six at this vul and at matchpoints.

[JLOGIC]

Fluffy, on 2011-March-26, 16:40, said:

obviously east has more average clubs, the problem is how do you weight against a random opp the fact that he overcalled 3♥ with only 4 HCP if he doesn't hold the queen.

I do not weight this at all

[gnasher]

I don't think anyone would bid 3♥ with xx K98xxxx xx Qx but not with xx K98xxxx xx xx.

[whereagles]

Fluffy, on 2011-March-26, 16:40, said:

obviously east has more average clubs, the problem is how do you weight against a random opp the fact that he overcalled 3♥ with only 4 HCP if he doesn't hold the queen.

well, come on.. no good player worries about hcp requirements when the ODR and vulnerability are right

Just play the odds.

[Free]

Fluffy, on 2011-March-26, 16:40, said:

obviously east has more average clubs, the problem is how do you weight against a random opp the fact that he overcalled 3♥ with only 4 HCP if he doesn't hold the queen.

Well, with ♠J and ♦J he has 6HCP which is enough to preempt. He doesn't need ♣Q to get to the required 6HCP NV vs V...