Posted 2011-February-20, 14:11
I will try to think along with you.
You have to avoid 2 diamond losers. Options are:
1) Pull trumps, play for 3=3 diamonds, then play on diamonds. Chance of success very bad, need ♦KQ doubleton, about 3% I estimate
2) Cash diamond ACE in the hope to drop stiff King of Queen (about 5% chance), then play to ruff a diamond in dummy. This requires the hand with singleton diamond honor to have no more than 2♣'s and NOT the ♣JAck (else when they win the diamond, they can ruff a club, as you can't afford to play two rounds of trumps before ducking diamond.
3) Duck a diamond, planning on going after either
a) two diamond ruffs in dummy if necessary
b) a ruffing finessee of the high diamond through LHO, after pulling two rounds of trumps, planning only one ruff, but playing for 4=2,
c) pull two rounds of trumps, and ruff one diamond in dummy (playing for 3-3 diamonds),
We can eliminate 1. Two and three are not all that different. I prefer the initial duck, but I guess either are ok. So to make the discussion easier, we will just handle the thrid question assuming two rounds of diamonds and one round of trumps have been played (no ♣Jack has shown). The question is how are your going to play if...
A- RHO wins the ducked diamond
B-LHO wins the ducked diamond
This is a non-trivial question.
If RHO wins the first diamond, you might decide to go restricted choice, LHO for the other top diamond, but many players would have difficultly ducking the ♦Q, so that might influence your thought processes if East won the KING. If you play it pure restricted choice, the diamond hook on third round becomes increasingly a favorite.
If LHO wins the honor, restricted choice still applies, but a finesse is no longer possible. So you have to play to drop the last honor by ruffing.
So I guess my line would be, who won the diamond. If RHO, play two rounds of trumps, then lead the ♦T, if not covered, run it.
If LHO won the first diamond, then pull only one round of trumps, planning on ruffing two diamonds in dummy.
--Ben--