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Play 3NT Which red suit?

#1 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2010-December-30, 18:45



MP's, you receive a 2 lead to the 8 and your Jack, what now?

 wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the 3.


 rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#2 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-December-30, 19:28

View PostHanoi5, on 2010-December-30, 18:45, said:



MP's, you receive a 2 lead to the 8 and your Jack, what now?

gut is to lead a to dummy and lead a towards the Q
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the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"

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#3 User is offline   ceeb 

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Posted 2010-December-30, 19:39

If you play on -- seems a better chance for the contract than -- it would clearly be advantageous (e.g. South has xxx,A10x,KJ10x,xxx) to play high from dummy at trick 1.

However, since the contract is absolutely normal and the game is matchpoints, playing on seems justified on the grounds that it maximizes the expected number of tricks.
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#4 User is offline   l milne 

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Posted 2010-December-30, 20:12

Play the queen of spades at trick one! Then a diamond off dummy.
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#5 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2010-December-30, 20:34

View PostHanoi5, on 2010-December-30, 18:45, said:

MP's, you receive a 2 lead to the 8 and your Jack, what now?
Agree with Ceeb that you should try to win the opening lead in dummy. Then I guess to to run the 7, hoping to make 2, 3, 1, and 3
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#6 User is offline   gszeszycki 

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Posted 2010-December-31, 00:09

win first tick in hand with J and lead low toward the heart K then back toward the heart Q.

this lop succeeds whenever hearts break 33 18 out of 30 cases when hearts break 42
winning trick 1 in dummy and trying to run 7 wins 16 of 30 when hearts break 42

Leading toward K and back to Q has around 64% chance of success vs 61% winning trick one in dummy and leading the 7 for finesse.

Winning trick 1 in dummy and leading toward dia Q is an illusion. This lop gives up
1 dia 1 hea and 2 spa but works only when dia are 33. Even if you score 4 dia tricks
if only goes with 3 clubs and 2 spades for 9 so at imps leading toward dia Q is
no better than A5432 oppsite 67. 36% LOP
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#7 User is offline   dake50 

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Posted 2010-December-31, 03:13

As others suggest, winning SJ not SQ in dummy,
what lesser play from here?

Hope H:3+3, repeat SQ finesse for overtrick.
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#8 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-December-31, 05:00

The advantage of running 7 is that you will make an extra overtrick when South plays low from something like xxx A10x Kxx xxxx. Should South play 10 on the first round from that? I suppose he should, but I bet most players wouldn't.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#9 User is offline   ceeb 

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Posted 2011-January-02, 11:21

View Postgnasher, on 2010-December-31, 05:00, said:

The advantage of running 7 is that you will make an extra overtrick when South plays low from something like xxx A10x Kxx xxxx.

It's an interesting card combination but on this particular hand I don't see how declarer can establish 10 tricks without creating 4 for the defense. For example even if North wins the J and exits with a , there's still time for the defense to score its trick.
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