Posted 2010-October-24, 04:54
I could play low at trick one, but then I might face an awkward guess after a black-suit switch.
Instead, I'd win ♦A and play a heart to the jack. If hearts aren't 4-0, I'm hoping for one of these:
- Heart K onside
- Hearts 2-2, so I can ruff two spades
- ♠K onside
- ♣Kx with RHO
- Clubs 3-3
- A black-suit squeeze against LHO
If ♥J holds, I can play a spade to the queen next, then cash ♥A before ruffing both my spade losers. (That loses when RHO is 1282 with ♠K, but you said he was aggressive. On a really bad day, RHO will be that shape without ♥K.)
Suppose that ♥J loses and they're 3-1. The play might go something like: first heart loses; diamond return ruffed; draw trumps; club to the jack; LHO wins and returns a club; spade to the queen and king; spade return won with the ace; spade ruff; diamond ruff; trump.
If hearts are 4=0, I still have decent chances. Something like: ♥J losing to ♥K; win trump return in dummy, ruff a diamond low, ♣J to West's king, win the trump return in dummy, ruff a diamond high, top clubs, draw the last trump. If the last club isn't good, use it to endplay LHO to lead from ♠K.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn