[hanp]

phil_20686, on Sep 6 2010, 12:35 PM, said:

good defene will duck 100% of the time

really?

[JLOGIC]

Why would I play a spade at trick 2?

Sorry for that comment but it is so obvious, you are asking us to guess before we get any information about the hand whatsoever, and before we get a chance to let them duck the heart ace. If you get more information before making these guesses, you will get them right more often.

[hanp]

Fair enough, if you play a heart, RHO will hop up with the ace and play a diamond.

I didn't give it as such because declarer immediately played a spade, perhaps planning to keep open the option of pitching on the diamonds if the spades didn't split. More likely, he didn't think until he had to play from hand at trick 2.

[JLOGIC]

hanp, on Sep 7 2010, 02:10 AM, said:

I didn't give it as such because declarer immediately played a spade, perhaps planning to keep open the option of pitching on the diamonds if the spades didn't split.

This might be a good enough reason, if RHO has Kx of spades and 4 small diamonds we make after going up with the ace. Then again if we're going to hook the spade anyways that does not make much sense.

Quote

Fair enough, if you play a heart, RHO will hop up with the ace and play a diamond.

This should give us some information since playing back a heart in case partner can ruff is rather normal. Maybe RHO is just being careless, or maybe they know their partner cannot ruff a heart (either having 2 spades, or not having heart length).

Of course if they know that we think this way they can mess with us but most people cannot avoid the compulsion to win the heart and play a heart when holding 5 hearts and 1 spade.

Also, last time I had a situation like this they basically did the equivalent of shifting to a trump! That opens up a new set of worms.

The clue most obvious clue for playing for the drop is that RHO raised to 4C. Would he do this with Kx of spades and 3 trumps and a yarb?

Also, one other thing you can say in favor of not finessing at this point is that LHO did not save or attempt to save. With 7 clubs to the KJT and a spade void, they might have considered it after we effectively tried for a grand when they're w/r (or might have just bid 6C over 5D to suggest partner do it).

Whether or not RHO would raise to 4C on a yarb with Kx of spades might depend a lot on whether they have the HA or not, so knowing that they do have it is helpful. I think with Kx of spades and an ace they are unlikely to bid 4C, but maybe if they had 4 trumps they would anyways...

If RHO has 4 trumps I doubt LHO has the spade king, bidding 3C with stiff K of spades and a 6 card suit is weird, but it might depend on who LHO is (and how dutch they are).

If RHO has 4 trumps and a stiff spade they might have bid 5C though, but that might depend on how aggressive their 3C bids are.

Anyways I think:

-More likely than not, if RHO has 4 clubs, they have Kx of spades.
-If RHO has 3 clubs, they always have a stiff spade.

So ruffing clubs after playing a heart (to find out who has the HA obv) and trying to get a read on the count there is important. I think if you watch their spots carefully you will get a good clue since most people are not close to random.

RHO returning a diamond is a clue that they have Kx of spades...with 1543 a heart back is normal, and even with 1453 it's normal.

Of course you are just guessing what they would play back and don't know so I should not read too much into it!

A lot of people would not bid 3C with 0436 and would only do so with 0346. Some people might not raise with 4 clubs and a balanced hand, and some might not raise with 3 clubs and a stiff spade, it depends on their style...

I'd want to be at the table for this one, sry

/drunk

[bluecalm]

Intuitively I play for drop.
I would love to see some good arguments to convince me otherwise. I am bad at figuring this stuff out myself.

[hanp]

Thanks for all the comments.

LHO (me) had - xxx 10xxx KJ10xxx, my partner had Kx Axxx Qxx xxxx. RHO thought for ages but finally decided to go for the drop, our teammate finessed after a very different auction so we won a bunch of IMPs.

I did think a bit about saccing in 7, even though I had only 6 clubs. Fortunately the bidding of the opponents was quite slow so my opponents couldn't notice this.

[gwnn]

pgwnned again

[phil_20686]

gnasher, on Sep 6 2010, 12:57 PM, said:

phil_20686, on Sep 6 2010, 06:35 PM, said:

Fluffy, on Sep 6 2010, 11:45 AM, said:

LHO will not bid 3♣with ♠K ♥A and ♣KJ10, not all the time at least, so playing a heart and finding ♥ Ace on LHO's hands increases the finese chances a lot.

I didn't try it, so to be consistent with my previous line I will just finese anyway.

good defene will duck 100% of the time, If you play again maybe they will cash the ace and give lho a ruff when k is stiff on your left.

I play a heart, in the hope that I'm playing against good defenders. Then I'll throw my other two hearts on ♣AQ

You already had to choose what you discard on the queen of clubs - i assumed that you pitched a diamond, seems natural, although probably if you are planning to play for the discovery you should pitch a heart at trick one.

tbh, I didn't really think about it that much.

[gszeszycki]

J10xxxx
Kxx
A
AQx

AQxxx
QJx
KJxxx
-

Starting with the south hand, the bidding goes:

1S - (3C) - 4C - (5C)
5D - (p) - 5H - (p)
6H - (p) - 6S - all pass

It is extremely unlikely the 3c bidder has 4 hearts so going over hands the 5c bidder might have we conclude: note dia Q may or may not be present makes no difference.

1. Kx Axxx xxxx xxx
2. x Axxx xxxxx xxx
3. Kx xxxx xxxx xxx
4. x xxxx xxxxx xxx
5. Kx Axxx xxx xxxx
6. x Axxx xxx xxxx
7 Kx xxxx xxx xxxx
8 x xxxx xxxx xxxx

hands 1 and 5 seem to be the only 2 candidates for a 5c bid (since it would take little from p to set 6s) the others either look like clear cut 6c bids since there seems to be few ways to beat 6c more than 1400 (this is especially true of hands 6/7/8).

Using this thinking i would take the spade finesse vs playing for the drop.

[dkharty]

hanp, on Sep 6 2010, 10:19 AM, said:

The tall gentleman on your left... the much taller gentleman on your right...

Taller than you?!? Surely you're joking, Mr. Feynman!

[hanp]

My partner is 6'8 or so. I prefer to sit down during the postmortem.