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Which is better? assume partner will err given a chance

#1 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2010-August-10, 03:45

Scoring: MP

Partner (North) deals and passes
East opens 3 and West carries on to 4

Your opening lead is Q and the play goes as below:
1. Q - A - 4 - 3
2. A - 7 - 3 - 2
3. K - 5 - T - 4
4. Q - 6 - 9 - 5

After ruffing, this particular South hand had a choice of leading either J or 5. He chose one -- and it did not work one. After the deal (and then after the session), the N/S pair had a prolonged disagreement on which of the two leads is obvious/superior. Both were stubbornly refusing to see the logic of the other person's position.

Assuming N/S are not experts, which is the better continuation at trick 5? Is this obvious? Any help or advise welcome. (yes, we we N/S and got a poor score on this one)

Note: We do not play secondary signals etc so apart from showing an even count, there is not much to read in North's play of heart cards. South deliberately did not signal even count (if it matters)
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#2 User is offline   jukmoi 

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Posted 2010-August-10, 04:52

Maybe North had AQ and declarer singleton and North tried to cash second before returning a ? Or maybe he thought that I had Q after declarer played K from dummy. Maybe we should clarify the situation to partner by returning J first so that he would have a better count of the hand? Then north would also see the first round of . After that North should work things out.
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#3 User is offline   vuroth 

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Posted 2010-August-10, 05:25

No idea what's right, but I play a club there. If partner has Qxx I'd rather leave declarer with a guess in the suit, rather than finessing him straight away.

Club can't cost, and diamond might, so I'll play a club.
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.

"gwnn" said:

rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
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#4 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2010-August-10, 07:10

I would trust partner to have played the K at trick 1 if he had it doubleton, so partner's ruffing the next club. I want him to ruff, so won't be leading the J. I think 10 (or the 7) conveys the message that I want him to ruff and play a highish suit back, ie a heart rather than a diamond. I might well have played a diamond if I had a singleton, so he will cash the AD first when it's right to do so.
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#5 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-August-10, 07:14

early in the morning here but at this point it looks like you can test all the relevant cases
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#6 User is offline   quiddity 

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Posted 2010-August-10, 09:08

It definitely looks like partner has the club king. If declarer had it he would be drawing trumps, not messing around trying to discard a club. In that case I think we have to play a diamond now - if partner has just the ace, he has to duck. Then when we get in with the ace of spades we can lead another diamond to partner's ace and partner can lead one back to promote the jack of spades.
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#7 User is offline   W Kovacs 

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Posted 2010-August-10, 09:53

Declarer started with 7 spades, 2 hearts and 2 clubs. So he has at most 2 diamonds, or has 1D and the KC.

If his diamonds are Ax, he has no diamond loser. If his diamonds are Qx, he loses one diamond all day. If his diamonds are xx, he loses 2 no matter how he plays (he has no entry to the board to get rid of a diamond; partner has AQ over the KJ).

If his diamond is singleton, then he loses it no matter when diamonds are broken unless he holds the singleton AD.

So diamonds are never going away. What can go away is partner's singleton spade. If partner is the one out of clubs, now is the time to use that spade before declarer draws it.

Lead a club, any club.
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#8 User is offline   quiddity 

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Posted 2010-August-10, 15:02

yeah, my previous response was wrong. If partner ducks the diamond, declarer discards his second diamond loser on a fourth heart. Partner needs to win the diamond ace and return his last heart for the trump promo. However, there's no cost in leading a club first to give partner the count. Then win the first round of trumps and lead a diamond to partner's ace.
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#9 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2010-August-10, 16:43

This is weird.

I agree that partner maybe should have played the club King at trick one if he had the Kx, especially if he has the diamond Ace-Queen. So, it seems that he does have a stiff. But, Declarer's line is weird if that's what is going on. So, my inclination is that partner started with Kx in clubs.

I also see that the heart 8 is still missing. Partner's heart carding has been weird. With a clear desire for a diamond lead, he could have tossed the 8 of hearts at trick one. With a clear desire for a club, he would Peter with the second-lowest first. The 7 seems non-committal.

I can see that playing a club cannot really hurt much, except that a diamond might lead to the Holy Grail defense of diamond to Queen, Diamond Ace, heart trump promo, club trump with king, get Ace later, if partner actually started with stiff spade King.

If I play a club, Declarer can do no harm to the trump promo, and partner might actually have started with a stiff club. strange, but Declarers make mistakes.

If I play a diamond, the risk is that partner may try to send one back if Declarer pops King, but that would be silly, as my Queen ain't going anywhere. There is a greater risk of partner having the A-Q in diamonds and trying to cash the second one before leading the heart, when Opener has a stiff heart. So, my diamond card should probably be a count signal, in theory.

There is also the possibility that Opener happens to be 6223 or 6232, I suppose.
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#10 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2010-August-10, 16:55

At the table, South played 5, North won with the Ace and tried to cash the K before leading the 4th heart. Obviously, South knew that the club was not cashable and was quite upset with North for not playing the remaining to promote the setting trick
Scoring: MP

I was North. I realise both of us made mistakes but I could see no hurry from South's side as long as he held the trump ace. I felt the club lead by South could not hurt at all -- but partner thought it was a weak excuse because it was highly unlikely declarer bid a 6-card trump suit at the 3-level
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#11 User is offline   jukmoi 

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Posted 2010-August-11, 03:52

kenrexford, on Aug 10 2010, 05:43 PM, said:

If I play a diamond, the risk is that partner may try to send one back if Declarer pops King, but that would be silly, as my Queen ain't going anywhere.

From partners point of view my original holdings could be Kxx and Qx. If he returns a after getting in with A declarer just ditches his loser as I trumph with my natural trick.
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