[rbforster]

nigel_k, on Jul 25 2010, 02:29 PM, said:

I would pull with B and pass all the others, though I don't have much confidence in my judgment in this area.

Me too. I like bidding 2M with a good major suit if it's only a 5 card suit (or any 6+ card suit). Most of the responding hands were balanced with decent values, and I think passing 1N is easier on those.

Hand A was the hardest for me, since it's both weak and with a poor heart suit. I think this is going to work badly either way, but I think I'd guess to pass and try get a free trick from soft defense (hiding the better hand).

[the hog]

I would pass every single one of these with the exception of B. This is really straightforward; we frequently raise on 3 card support, particularly if the doubleton is two small.

[bluecalm]

First simulation according to awm's requirements.
I've changed spade length in opener hand to 2-3 because he would rebid 1♠ in standard with 4. If that seems wrong to you let me know I will run it again with changed assumption.
Once I generated some hands it was obvious to me that unfortunately layouts are not realistic at all because opponents often has 6-5 somewhere and the like. This is why I added the following assumptions about defenders' hands:

-0-6 any or:
-no 6+card suit or 5-5 anywhere

So first one (1000 hands) :

1NT makes 49%
2♥ makes 62%

Number of tricks (different 1000 hands sample):

2♥: <7 7 8 9 10 11
122 270 339 223 50 6

avg: 7.83

1NT : <7 7 8 9 10 11
514 280 160 41 3 2

avg: 6.455

[awm]

Two comments:

(1) I was hoping you could separate the 5(332) hands from the 5-4 ones, as it's quite possible that the results will be different in these two cases.

(2) The original post did specify that 4♠ is possible for opener (bypass four-card spade suits) even though that's not standard, so one should probably run with those parameters.

[bluecalm]

Now:

1) Assuming any 5-3-3-2 from reponder with 4♠ possible in opener's hand:

1NT makes 45%
2♥ makes 52%

2) 5-4-2-2 with 4 in black suit (still 4♠ possible in o's hand)

1NT makes 46%
2♥ makes 60%


Those takes a lot of time. I can run more cases later if there is interest

I suppose adding 4♠ makes overall playability of hands weaker as there won't be as many 5-3 ♥ or 5-3 ♦ fits.

[Fluffy]

this is for IMPs, but anyway its probably worth a read.

http://www.rpbridge.net/9x02.htm

[Fluffy]

about simulations: simulating double dummy 1NT is completelly nuts, 1NT is the hardest contract to play and defend and often it just ends up with guesses.

That's one of the reasons I love to play 2M on weak fields, you are not getting a bottom for an abnormal lead that succeds, its a solid contract where your superior card play gets you an edge by using trumps as control/setting long suit or just to score them before the trumps are drawn.

Maybe Adam gets an edge playing 1NT adn that's why he likes it, I am just awful when I have 3 suits were I might stablish tricks and have no idea wich one to start with.

[P_Marlowe]

<snip>

[dake50]

I look at likely entries to this hand.

a,c,d,e have ~1 expectable entry so 1NT plays one-handed. Yuck.! Bid 2H.

b has 2 likely in H but HK offside duck lets opponents crow about entry-killing when 2H plays well. 2H.

f has Partner's DK + CA looks to play well for partner. Pass 1NT.