[gwnn]

Scoring: IMP

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Hello, this is the fourth thread in the big poll. If you didn't start at the beginning, please start at the beginning (hand 1). Please provide the most probable result after East opens 1♠ and you either

a) pass
b) double
c) bid 2♥.

Please do a cross imp result like:

a-b:
a-c:
b-c:

(a-c means the imps a wins over c)

Thanks :) Please try to do all 30 hands also :)

[awm]

a: 1♠-P-2♠-P-P. We may push them up to 3♠ by balancing. -140.
b: 1♠-X-3♠ (mixed)-4♣-X. Three down, -800.
c: 1♠-2♥-3♠ (mixed)-4♥-4♠; doubled. One down, +100.

a-b: 12 IMPs (660)
a-c: -6 IMPs (-240)
b-c: -14 IMPs (-900)

It is possible that we are pulling 4♣X to 4♥, which is doubled by west, but this probably won't save more than one trick. It is conceivable that north will pass 3♠ or make a responsive double, but my guess is that 4♣ would be a common action on a hand where we seem to have a majority of the values and it could easily be a 9+ fit each way.

[shyams]

a. 1S (P) 3S? (P) 4S all pass. I often raise based on LTC and the West hand is a 3S (I guess most will call this a bad bid...). Most probable result -1
b. Agree with awm. The double could easily lead to 4Cx
c. Agree with awm. 4Sx -1

a-b = 13 IMPs (+850) to N/S
a-c = (2) IMPs (-50) to N/S
b-c = (14) IMPs (-900) to N/S

[hanp]

lol @ 1S - 2S.

Also, on a diamond lead, I'd expect east to make 4S.

[TimG]

awm, on Jan 19 2010, 08:36 PM, said:

a: 1♠-P-2♠-P-P. We may push them up to 3♠ by balancing. -140.
b: 1♠-X-3♠ (mixed)-4♣-X. Three down, -800.
c: 1♠-2♥-3♠ (mixed)-4♥-4♠; doubled. One down, +100.

I don't think North should venture 4♣ on (, especially not vulnerable, just hope the opponents have guessed (or will guess) the level incorrectly.

On © it may be double dummy talk, but it seems to me that east should pass over 4♥ after his partner's total tricks sort of raise. We've pressured them, they've guessed, 4♠ just means that we're taking the last guess...in front of a partner who might know what to do.

[Codo]

A: 1 ♠ 3♣ (or whatever Bergen you use) 3 ♠ -140
B 1♠ X 3♠ 4♣ X ap -800
C 1♠ 2 ♥ 3♠ 4♥ 4♠ AP or North even doubles +100

A:B +560 (12)
A:C -240 (6)
B:C -900 (14)

[shyams]

hanp, on Jan 20 2010, 12:20 PM, said:

Also, on a diamond lead, I'd expect east to make 4S.

I thought about this before my first post. But if I were to choose one outcome, I think there is a higher probability of SA then Sx opening leads.

[jukmoi]

1♠-dbl-2♠-3♣
ap
result -2 (or -3)

1♠-pass-2♠-ap
result +1
(if defence gets in second round of trumps, declarer has 6 trump tricks and 3 tricks from side suits.)

1♠-2♥-2♠-3♥
pass-pass-3♠-ap
=

Pass wins double 2imp (60)
2H wins double 2imp (60)
2H vs pass flat.

This post has been edited by jukmoi: 2010-January-20, 12:48

[kayin801]

Codo, on Jan 20 2010, 05:42 AM, said:

A: 1 ♠ 3♣ (or whatever Bergen you use) 3 ♠ -140
B 1♠ X 3♠ 4♣ X ap -800
C 1♠ 2 ♥ 3♠ 4♥ 4♠ AP or North even doubles +100

A:B +560 (12)
A:C -240 (6)
B:C -900 (14)

I'm on board here. Maybe slightly different route for C (i might try 3H instead of 3S with W), and definitely a X.

[Fluffy]

this hand is more flat than you think

A:1♠-p-2♠-X-3♣-4♥-X for -500
B:1♠-X-3♥-4♣-X- for -800
C:1♠-2♥-3♥-4♥-4♠-p-p-X for -590 after ♥A lead.

A-B = 7 IMPs
A-C = 3 IMPs
B-C= -5 IMPs

[gwnn]

I've seen this hand before

a. 1♠-limit raise-accept-1 down +50
b. 1♠-x-2♥*-3♣; x -500
c. 1♠-2♥-limit raise, accept, +50

ab: 11
ac: 0
bc: -11

[mohitz]

a) I will show responder's hand as a 4 card LR and IMO opener accepts. So, 4S +50
B ) 1S - (X) - 2NT - (3C) - X. 2NT = 4 card LR -500
c) Again same, 1S - (2H) - 2NT - (3H) - 4S +50

Difficult to say whether 4S makes or not. So, will go with the consensus

ab = +550 -11
ac = 0
bc = +550 -11

[awm]

mohitz, on Jan 23 2010, 01:45 PM, said:

1S - (X) - 2NT - (3C) - X. 2NT = 4 card LR +500

Surely this should be -500 for N/S since they are the ones in 3♣X.

[mohitz]

awm, on Jan 24 2010, 12:19 AM, said:

mohitz, on Jan 23 2010, 01:45 PM, said:

1S - (X) - 2NT - (3C) - X. 2NT = 4 card LR +500

Surely this should be -500 for N/S since they are the ones in 3♣X.

Right. Corrected now

[jdonn]

a. 1♠ p 3♠ p
4♠ ppp
+50
b. 1♠ X 2NT (limit+) 3♣
X ppp
-500
c. 1♠ 2♥ 3♥ 4♥
4♠ ppp
+50

I'm not so sure east would double 3♣ given his minimum and 9 card spade fit (in fact I think he wouldn't) but I'm trying to avoid being biased in favor of the double so...

a-b: +11
a-c: 0
b-c: -11

[Dirk Kuijt]

Well, if I'm defending with the South hand, East makes ten tricks (since South leads a small diamond), so I have

a
1♠-p-3♠-p
4♠-p-p-p

-420

b
1♠-X-3♠-4♣-
X-p-p-p

-800

c
1♠-2♥-3♠-4♥
4♠-p-p-p

-420

hence

a-b +9 IMP
a-c 0 IMP
b-c -9 IMP

(Feel free to change the play result if you think this is really irrational.)

[Mbodell]

Jack playing 2001 BWS on championship setting says:

a 4se= -420
b 4se-1 50
c 4se-1 50

a-b -10
a-c -10
b-c 0

[gwnn]

Jack?!?!?!