[hrothgar]

Here's a hand that Free and I got wrong yesterday.
We were playing MOSCITO, where a first/second seat NT promises 11+ - 14 HCP.

I passed in first seat holding

A82
QT7
QJ98
Q83

To me, the hand looks much too weak to consider opening.

My question is the following: How do folks value NT opening bids?
I typically use my own judgement, which is reasonably close to Kaplan / Rubens adjusted point count.

I know that others consider HCP good predictors for NT openings.

thoughts? Comments?

[paulg]

I generally look at the number of jacks in the hand, in effect modifying their HCP contribution downwards, plus the number of small cards when making close decisions. Here, with only two cards below a 7 and good support for every suit I would tend to be aggressive and open.

Cheers

Paul

[MickyB]

The most important thing is playing strength in NT, so I start off by using the fifths count, and adjust from there. The fifths count is 4.0 - 2.8 - 1.8 - 1.0 - 0.4, so that is 10.8 on this hand. On the upside, there are some useful spots, on the downside honours are split, so I don't think this quite makes an average 11. If the hand was marginal then I would look at playing strength in the majors as well - with 4333 and three queens, that isn't great either. A clear pass.

[mishovnbg]

Pass.
2 spot cobinations worth + 1 hcp. But for each 2Q or count sequences -1, in example -2hcp. So by my method hand in example worth 10 hcp and is not for opening.
Misho

[luke warm]

well i doubt this surprises you, but i would open 1nt with that hand... i need a minimum of 2 controls, which i have... even if i valued it like misho i'd still open 1nt

[Flame]

I would open this because of all the nice middle cards. I dont have a system for NT evaluation, i also think such a system is less importent when playing NT which have a major premptive value in it, so maybe its not all about strengh but more about ODR in which i can understand why you passed this one.

[Free]

Imo this hand should be opened, certainly when NV. V it might be dangerous because there's no escape suit, and possible 4-3 fits won't be fun as well. NV you you should open 1NT in spirit of the system: open as much as possible, take as much bidding space away in a safe way. You also don't have a Major, so chance is opps have 2M available, and you can only make it harder on them to find that.

I'd always open this hand 1NT, but I respect your decision if you don't

[Flame]

Can you tell us what was the result at the table ?
As i said before this hand is imo worth its 11 hcp , worth 1nt strengh wise, but i can understand not opening it because of its good defensive value, this mean if i pass, and partner bid something i will make some sound bid becuause i like the hand.

[whereagles]

I open that thing 1NT on spot. The preemptive value, coupled to nice intermediates and good support in case of a transfer offset the lowish hcp count and flat pattern.

NV only, 'cos I don't believe in vulnerable weak NTs lol.

[keylime]

1NT NV vs. VUL in 1st/2nd seats only, if using a 10-12. Square hand, 4-by-3, and optimum places to runout to. For 11+ to 14, no thanks, better to defend and not hang partner out with a minimum game going hand.

A82
QT7
QJ98
Q83

[the hog]

A82
QT7
QJ98
Q83

Pass Richard. This does not come within a cooee of a 1N opening, regardless of what LOS you play, regardless of what weak NT strength you play. The only redeeming feature of the hand is the D suit. You have far too much defence and not enough offence to even consider opening this. Also as you know, I hate 4333 shapes as they generally always play worse than even their point count would suggest.

When deciding whether to open these things, I look at fitting honors, fast cards and possibly a 5 card suit.
Ax
xxx
KJTxx
Qxx
for example, is a far better hand than the one you posted and is worth an 11-14 NT opening.

Cheers
Ron

[luke warm]

here's the full hand... whew, what a monster... i think the zar advocates would have overcalled 1♠ here, or maybe just jumped to 4♠... 'course that is incidental to the question asked

Scoring: IMP

---

West North East South

 Pass  1♦    2♠    Dbl
 Pass  3♣    3♠    Pass
 Pass  Pass  

[the hog]

Very poor hand evaluation; 2S does no justice to the hand at all.
What was 2S? An intermediate 2 bid? Doesn't look much like an intermediate 2 to me. Cannot possibly be a weak 2 as this hand bears no resemblance to a weak 2 either.

Bid 4S over 1D for heaven's sake, after all you are cold opposite one bullet and the Q of C. I don't blame Richard at all for passing with those soft values.

[keylime]

Ditto, ditto, ditto. Bid what you think you can make opposite a six count.

[Gerben47]

Easy pass in West: Your 1NT range is 11+ - 14. This is a BAD 11.
Easy FOUR ♠ bid by East. 2♠, whatever it was, was wrong.

I usually count HCP and add judgement for balanced hands. Almost any 5332 11-count counts as 11+, and 4432's with good intermediates.
4333 hands are terrible and unless exceptional (AT9 KT9x AT9 xxx ?) I pass.

[luke warm]

i notice a lot of people would pass that hand, richard, because it's either too balanced or too weak or both... this is a matter of philosophy, but it seems that passing loses one of the biggest advantages of the mini... but that's just me

[hrothgar]

Hi All

When I orginally posted my hand, I wasn't trying to focus on the actual results at the table or any of the followup bidding. Rather, I'm much more interested in how people evaluate the strength of NT oriented hannd.

I'm going to make an extreme comment to abruptly shift focus:

Luke Warm made the following comment

>i notice a lot of people would pass that hand, richard, because it's either
>too balanced or too weak or both... this is a matter of philosophy, but it
>seems that passing loses one of the biggest advantages of the mini...

Comment the first:

A mini-NT is commonly defined as 10-12 HCP. MOSCITO doesn't use a mini-NT

Comment the second:

Even if I had a 10-12 NT available, I would be very likely to pass this hand because it doesn't look like a 10 count to me. All of the values are soft and the shape can't get much worse. I think that the hand is question is worth about nine HCPs and would treat it as such when bidding. For what its worth, the K+R adjusted point count is 8.95, closely matching my own intution.

My real question to the peanut gallery is to what extent folks upgrade and downgrade NT oriented hands based on "judgement".

[inquiry]

Playing weak 1NT (11-14, 12-14, 11-15), West hand is a CLEAR pass. Playing Mini-1NT (10-12, or 9-11), it is a SOUND opening bid. So the question is, which are you playing? Ok, say you are playing 11-14, to explain the pass, I at least have some sympathy for bidding 2♠. But, of course, this hand is way to good for 2♠ bid. Why? Because you can take the ♥Q, ♦QJ out of WEST's hand and still make game facing 6 hcp. Take the ♣Q out and give west ♣T93 instead of ♣Q83 and game is 50/50, and that is opposite just 4 hcp.

So how to bid EAST hand opposite a pass? 1♠ or 4♠, there is no middle ground. Since Jimmy mentioned it, what does ZAR say EAST has? Zar count is 31 (8x2)+3+2+10 = 31. I would add a bonus point in here for concentration of hcp in two suits even though ZAR says you need 11 hcp (here we have only 10), but the meaning is that it sets up extra tricks for you and look at the quality of the ♠ cards. So I would call this 32. Partner needs only 19-20 points to give us a play for game. He would pass with that, so 2♠ has to be wrong. And if he has less than 20, the opponents probably have game. So 4♠ seems right to me. At least I have 7 tricks. But if you bid 1♠, partner will rasie and again you get to 4♠. (BTW, West hand is 11 hcp, 2 control pts, 8 distributional pts, and 1 pt for honor isn spades when raising=24 ZAR points), so game should be reached if you overcall 1♠. Likely auction.. P-(1♦)-1♠-(dbl?); 2♦-(dbl)-4♠-?


If they bid 5♦ or 5♥, they go down three, doubled.

Ben

[dogsbreath]

Hi
I find myself in agreement with Ron again. (Pause for stiff drink.. )

Min 4-3-3-3 hands are AWFUL ..p will never believe y got this hand.. if he does you need to change your convention-card ..this is not a weak NT opening imho
Rgd Dog.

Quote

furnulum pani nolo

[Free]

I made the 2♠ and 3♠ bids, and I'll give you my filosophy behind it.

First of all, we were somewhere near the end of a tourney, and I thought we'd need some imps to get somewhere in the ranking. I thought this was an excelent hand for it, start with 2♠, bid 3♠, bid 4♠ and let it get doubled for =. Bidding an easy 4♠ like everyone shouldn't give us much... I never thought the bidding would stop at 3♠ since I NEVER bid twice with a weak hand (unless I have to ofcourse ) and thought my p would raise if he had 'something' after the 3♠. I also thought opps might perhaps have slam (since we open pretty light), and I'd just push them in it bidding 4♠, so that was the final argument to not bid 4♠
Starting with 2♠ would be a nice tactical underbid, hoping for a doubled contract and a little swing. I knew the bidding wouldn't stop at 2♠, but if I'd bid 3♠ it just might.

Ofcourse 4♠ is the normal bid, since there's no slam available (otherwise Richard would've opened). It turned out wrong as you can see, but I thought p should open this hand 1NT (we wouldn't gain some imps then, but we'd be in 4♠). He however thought otherwise. It's a matter of evaluating the hand.

Imo playing light openings with weak NT while NV, any balanced 11 hcp should be opened (range 11-14). I know I'd open this hand, and I know my dear p will not, but we still get along