[mtvesuvius]

You reach 6♣ after South overcalls 1♥. You recieve the A♥ and K♥ lead, what's your plan?

Scoring: IMP

As the cards were, there was no way to make,
however what would be your line of play here,
and what do you estimate that the percenages are?

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[gnasher]

I don't see any reason to deviate from the normal line of drawing trumps, cashing DA and three spades ending in West, then the rest of the trumps, then the diamond finesse unless I know the queen is dropping.

A priori this is:
Diamond finesse = 50%
Spades 3-3 = 36% x 50% = 18%
♦Q singleton offside = 1% x 32% = not very much
LHO having four spades, RHO having ♦Qx = less than 24% x 24% * 1/3 * 32% = also not very much

The effect of the overcall is probably to increase the chance of the diamond finesse working, reduce the chance of the 3-3 break, and increase the chance of the squeeze working.

[kfay]

I'll cash the ♦AK. If RHO is like 3622 that's good. I can get away with 4531 (extremely unlikely) or comparable with the ♦Q. He's a huge favorite to not have the 4th spade so then I'd just have a normal squeeze against N if the Q doesn't fall. At the table I'd probably believe that N has the ♦Q so this is just going to work out anyway.

I like my chances a lot actually. Probably like 60/40 to 75/25

[rbforster]

I like the squeeze line as well. Draw trumps, AK♦, and then run trumps pitching diamonds from East. Picks up Qx♦, 3-3♠ and either hand with Qxx♦+4♠.

[Free]

I would go for the squeeze line, since it caters for ♦Qx with South while the finesse doesn't.

[kenrexford]

There happens to be a possible psychological play here, FWIW.

Suppose you ruff the first club and can pull trumps in two rounds, ending in dummy. It seems fair to assume that South will have the diamond Queen. If that is protected, South has at least five hearts and three diamonds. If North never peeped, South probably has six or more hearts. If he has any clubs, he cannot have four spades but probably has fewer than three.

So, the only squeeze possible is against North. But, North is unlikely to have the diamond Queen, making that line unlikely to succeed.

However, give South 1642 shape, with Qxxx in diamonds. That gives North 5422 shape. If South cannot trust North's carding, because North might be falsecarding or something, then Ace-King(dropping 10)-small toward 9 might give South a problem. For, of you started with ♠AK63 ♥Qx ♦10x ♣AKQ9x, rising Queen gives you an unmakeable contract.

[kgr]

...start with ♦AK...
Isn't it better to start with ♠QAK and
- If N has 4c♠ play for the squeeze
- If S has 4c♠ finesse ♦
?

[gnasher]

The "squeeze line" (cashing the top diamonds) gains when South has ♦Q and is 4x3x or 4x2x. It loses when he doesn't have ♦Q and is 4x3x 4x2x, or 4x1x. On all other common layouts both lines make (in the "finesse line", if North has four spades and four low diamonds he is showup-squeezed).

South was at adverse, so inferences from the failure to make a weak jump overcall are unreliable. North was at adverse too, so we can't conclude much from his failure to raise in what was probably a strong-sounding auction.

I wonder whether the people who chose the squeeze line actually thought about any of this, or whether they just like playing squeezes.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2009-June-08, 17:43

[whereagles]

I used to always go for the sexier squeeze line. After some embarrassments of going down when grandma made it on the finesse, my squeeze-spotting abilities started to drop

[Free]

kgr, on Jun 8 2009, 11:25 PM, said:

...start with ♦AK...
Isn't it better to start with ♠QAK and
- If N has 4c♠ play for the squeeze
- If S has 4c♠ finesse ♦
?

No, starting with ♠ is a poor choice.

If N has 4♠s you can also play on the finesse, since to play for the squeeze you place ♦Q in the North hand...

[jdonn]

Free, on Jun 9 2009, 12:45 PM, said:

kgr, on Jun 8 2009, 11:25 PM, said:

...start with ♦AK...
Isn't it better to start with ♠QAK and
- If N has 4c♠ play for the squeeze
- If S has 4c♠ finesse ♦
?

No, starting with ♠ is a poor choice.

If N has 4♠s you can also play on the finesse, since to play for the squeeze you place ♦Q in the North hand...

Not true, the squeeze is a showup squeeze. If north has four small diamonds he will have to throw two and you will drop Qx offside.

[hanp]

Draw trumps first, then decide.

A full auction would be useful.

[gnasher]

hanp, on Jun 9 2009, 08:27 PM, said:

Draw trumps first, then decide.

Yes, if South has a trump void it is reasonable to play the squeeze line. If he has a singleton trump, the finesse line is probably better - if he's 4531, it's evens whether he has ♦Q or not, but the finesse line gains against more of the 4621s.