[awm]

You are on lead against 4♠ at MP after the auction 2♠-Pass-4♠-All Pass

♠Txx
♥xx
♦KTx
♣AJxxx

What's your lead? How obvious do you think it is? Would you lead differently at IMPs?

[kfay]

I'd probably lead the club ace at IMPs.

MPs... I think I still lead the ♣A fearing that it might go away.

It really rates to not give up a trick.

[Apollo81]

I'm all for aggressive leads against these auctions, but these are really poor holdings to lead from. Heart for me.

At IMPs I'd lead a diamond I think.

[jdonn]

Apollo81, on Apr 30 2009, 12:04 PM, said:

I'm all for aggressive leads against these auctions, but these are really poor holdings to lead from. Heart for me.

At IMPs I'd lead a diamond I think.

Wow I'm happy to lead either minor and it's only a matter of which to me. I'll try the ace of clubs and take a look.

It's one thing to not like either holding to lead from, but then I think it's a little bit of kidding yourself to say you're all for aggressive leads here.

[Lobowolf]

I think it's a close call between the pointy suits. The diamond could blow a trick, and the spade could blow a tempo. The 2M-4M auctions are awkward, because we don't know if LHO is bidding out of strength, or just spade length, so you never know whether you're trying to create a 4th trick or avoid giving up a 10th. I tend to favor more aggressive leads; I'd try the diamond with a clear conscience at IMPs, and holding my breath more at matchpoints.

[ewj]

Diamondo

[Phil]

Definitely a diamond at IMPs. If it blows a trick there's a good chance the trick was going away on a heart later anyway.

At MPs this is a very, very tough problem and I might lead a spade or a diamond depending on my state of mind. If I had a lightening 4♠ call on my left, I'd probably opt for the ♣A.

[peachy]

This could be an exception to "don't lead unsupported ace" because we don't know the type of hand dummy has for the 4S bid and it could be important to retain the lead to decide what to do trick 2. Then again, CA could blow a trick but I'm doing it anyway.

[gnasher]

On the sort of layout where a trump lead would gain, partner would often have made a takeout double. I hate leading doubletons when partner hasn't shown the suit. That leaves the minors, and a diamond stands to gain more and to lose less than a club.

I don't think the form of scoring makes much difference. We have no reason to think that 4♠ is being bid at every table, so its being matchpoints doesn't particularly argue for passivity, or not the extreme passivity of a trump lead anyway.

[JLOL]

I think the club ace and a trump are both equally terrible.

I would probably lead a diamond at any form of scoring, but a heart is tempting at MP.

[awm]

I generated a hundred random hands with the restriction that opener has 6♠ with at least one honor and 5-10 hcp, and dummy has 14+ points with 2+ spades. Obviously this doesn't really encompass the entire range of possible 2♠ openings or 4♠ raises.

Looking through these by hand (both because I don't have a double-dummy solver available, and because I'm not convinced of the merits on hands like these) it seemed like a trump lead was the worst alternative, with the other three suit leads being fairly even (difference did not appear statistically significant). A few observations:

(1) The club ace lead was disastrous when declarer held the king, or when declarer was void. These situations were not all that infrequent. The club lead typically wins either because partner has a singleton (but this requires opening leader to figure out to continue, which was often non-obvious) or because opening leader can figure out which red suit to switch to at trick two. A club lead seems like it might be a slight winner in a double-dummy situation since the trick two play will always be perfect.

(2) The heart lead obtained a ruff a few times when partner had the ace-king or ace-queen. It was also occasionally necessary for tempo reasons in establishing partner's heart tricks before declarer could arrange a discard on dummy's clubs or diamonds. There were very few instances where a heart lead was worse than a spade lead. Most of the losing alternatives for the heart lead involved losing a tempo, where declarer could draw trumps and then discard large numbers of losers on dummy's heart suit. Perhaps a few of these were also not realistic (with seven solid hearts and doubleton spade, most players would bid hearts rather than blast 4♠, but you never know).

(3) The diamond lead was normally a winner if partner held the ♦Q or ♦A. Most of the losing instances involved declarer holding one of these two cards and dummy the other (so a diamond trick was lost) although in some cases the trick was going away in any case. There were also a few cases where dummy had a possibly-running diamond suit and the diamond lead cost a tempo.

[jdonn]

awm, on Apr 30 2009, 02:22 PM, said:

I generated a hundred random hands with the restriction that opener has 6♠ with at least one honor and 5-10 hcp, and dummy has 14+ points with 2+ spades. Obviously this doesn't really encompass the entire range of possible 2♠ openings or 4♠ raises.

Of course you can't get it perfect, but I do have some suggestions.
- Perhaps limit declarer's shape a little more, at least eliminating things like 6-5 in the majors.
- Perhaps place some limit on declarer's strength outside spades, such as strength in spades equal or greater than strength outside spades, or if you think that's too specific then at least limit strength outside spades to 5 hcp.
- I think 14+ with 2+ spades is way too lenient. Remember he didn't just invite game, or investigate 3NT for that matter, he jumped to 4. I think there are not that many hands with just 2 spades that would do this at all, but you would want something more like this I think.
17+ with 2 spades.
15+ with 3 spades if balanced.
13+ with 3 spades if unbalanced or 4 spades if balanced.
Any hand with 4 spade if unbalanced (of course consistent with our partner not acting).

Considering how unlikely it is (not in absolute terms but relative to normal on this auction) that GIB has four spades with our partner not doubling 4♠ or bidding 4NT on a hand with a spade void, I think if you insist on 2+ spades with X+ hcp, X should be 16.

Really I think your sample is too favorable for all the leads in all likelihood.

[andy_h]

I don't like either black suits. Think I'd go for diamond at all forms of scoring.

[peachy]

awm, on Apr 30 2009, 02:22 PM, said:

I generated a hundred random hands with the restriction that opener has 6♠ with at least one honor and 5-10 hcp, and dummy has 14+ points with 2+ spades. Obviously this doesn't really encompass the entire range of possible 2♠ openings or 4♠ raises.

Looking through these by hand (both because I don't have a double-dummy solver available, and because I'm not convinced of the merits on hands like these) it seemed like a trump lead was the worst alternative, with the other three suit leads being fairly even (difference did not appear statistically significant). A few observations:

(1) The club ace lead was disastrous when declarer held the king, or when declarer was void. These situations were not all that infrequent. The club lead typically wins either because partner has a singleton (but this requires opening leader to figure out to continue, which was often non-obvious) or because opening leader can figure out which red suit to switch to at trick two. A club lead seems like it might be a slight winner in a double-dummy situation since the trick two play will always be perfect.

(2) The heart lead obtained a ruff a few times when partner had the ace-king or ace-queen. It was also occasionally necessary for tempo reasons in establishing partner's heart tricks before declarer could arrange a discard on dummy's clubs or diamonds. There were very few instances where a heart lead was worse than a spade lead. Most of the losing alternatives for the heart lead involved losing a tempo, where declarer could draw trumps and then discard large numbers of losers on dummy's heart suit. Perhaps a few of these were also not realistic (with seven solid hearts and doubleton spade, most players would bid hearts rather than blast 4♠, but you never know).

(3) The diamond lead was normally a winner if partner held the ♦Q or ♦A. Most of the losing instances involved declarer holding one of these two cards and dummy the other (so a diamond trick was lost) although in some cases the trick was going away in any case. There were also a few cases where dummy had a possibly-running diamond suit and the diamond lead cost a tempo.

I would not be comfortable with the parameters you set. If "peachy" and peachy" were bidding 2S (P) 4S, then opener in first seat could have a 5-card suit with a wide HCP range and responder anywhere from unbalanced zero to balanced 15. If it were second seat, different matter. As far as I can tell by watching what others nowadays play for a weak two, my style isn't that uncommon.

[benlessard]

From best to worst
Diamond,
Heart
Club
spades

and it seems clearcut for me.

when i lead into the weak hand im more afraid to lose a tempo than to blow a trick. Im usually fond of passive lead vs underleading honnors but here passivity is worse.

[OleBerg]

Lobowolf, on Apr 30 2009, 07:14 PM, said:

I think it's a close call between the pointy suits.  The diamond could blow a trick, and the spade could blow a tempo.  The 2M-4M auctions are awkward, because we don't know if LHO is bidding out of strength, or just spade length, so you never know whether you're trying to create a 4th trick or avoid giving up a 10th.  I tend to favor more aggressive leads; I'd try the diamond with a clear conscience at IMPs, and holding my breath more at matchpoints.

Agree with the reasoning, but chose a spade. All suits can be right or wrong.

[Cascade]

heart for me.

diamond second choice.