[kenberg]

oops, scratch that

[Fluffy]

It doesn't matter how many people tell him he is wrong, it doesn't amtter how many people insult him sarcastic, ironically or even directly, he keeps doing the same things he is being advised not to do once, and again and again.

I think I finally know foo's identity, he is the President of the Spannish Bridge Federation.

Oh wait, the president of our NBO doesn't speack english, so I am wrong .

[JLOGIC]

Interestingly I had this exact suit combination recently, and LHO was one of the players I'd put on my very short list of maybe 2 or 3 for "possibly the best in the world) (Geoff Hampson). I led low and it went small... did I give him credit to use some 9 falsecarding shenanigans?

Unforunately, I couldn't handle a 4-0 split ever (it was my trump suit, and I'd have too much work to do), so it was all moot and I played the ace. Geoff had KQ9x, so it didn't matter.

[benlessard]

Im probably wrong because what i get is low to A well ahead of anything else. If we compared without caring about 9 falsecard

low to A win VS J & low to T win. By W holding

9x
Q
K

VS

KQx
KQ9
kq9x

So A clearly win here. And many time you wont be able to handle West as having KQ9x

Now if we put falsecard against perfect defender.
starting with low...
If KQ9 and 9 appeat at trick one i still need to play the A and not the T since im vulenarble to H9x (9 falsecard) wich is twice as likely as KQ9 -- x

If i strat with the J and see the 9

i play low and lose.
2 nd round i lead low and LHO play low i still need to finesse since H9x is twice as likely than 9x--KQ

So whats the catch ?

PS low to T followed by A is exactly the same than low to A right.

H9x---H

vs

KQ?---?

[manudude03]

What just about everyone was saying is the ace is better than J/T, but you're missing a very valid option completely Also, some of your analysis is wrong.

benlessard, on 2011-August-07, 09:38, said:

Im probably wrong because what i get is low to A well ahead of anything else. If we compared without caring about 9 falsecard

low to A win VS J & low to T win. By W holding

9x
Q
K

VS

KQx
KQ9
kq9x

So A clearly win here. And many time you wont be able to handle West as having KQ9x

The run the jack/low to the ten pick up 9x too, running the jack also picks up the latter 2 (assuming you finesse the second time too).

benlessard, on 2011-August-07, 09:38, said:

Now if we put falsecard against perfect defender.
starting with low...
If KQ9 and 9 appeat at trick one i still need to play the A and not the T since im vulenarble to H9x (9 falsecard) wich is twice as likely as KQ9 -- x

If you put the ten in, you will have A8 over H7, so again, finesse twice. Of course, this will lose to KQ with West.

benlessard, on 2011-August-07, 09:38, said:

PS low to T followed by A is exactly the same than low to A right.

H9x---H

vs

KQ?---?

No, low to T then A loses to stiff honour with West. Ace first loses to stiff small with west (or void).

[benlessard]

Ok i think i got it.

its low to T (planning to play A after) or low to A.

So the only interesting cases are.

Q9x
K9x

Kqx
KQ9

if you start with low and the 9 appear again a defender who always put the 9 when holding 9x or H9x its twice as likely to be from H9x than from KQ9 so you should play the A. Agaisnt the same defender however you should play the T if a low appear. To counter this defender should play 9 for H9x 66%. Its probably not over but i feel thats the main point of it.

[benlessard]

manudude03, on 2011-August-07, 10:01, said:

The run the jack/low to the ten pick up 9x too, running the jack also picks up the latter 2 (assuming you finesse the second time too).

No, low to T then A loses to stiff honour with West. Ace first loses to stiff small with west (or void).

No since 9x mean that its 9x---KQ and you will 2 tricks (since playing the J = inteding to finesse again.)

2- No again you wont be able to pick up KQ9x in west by playing low to T.

So without falsecard tricks

KQx +KQ9 = K9x+Q9x

have the same frequency.

[manudude03]

ah yes, thought the suit was the other way round. Running the jack still picks up the stiff honour with West. You're still completely ignoring the % line (though IIRC it is pretty close according to suitplay).