[vuroth]

From memory, I got this wrong at the table. I may still have it wrong, but it was suggested that this would be a good hand to share.

Scoring: IMP

Opponents silent:
1♣ 1♥
1♠ 3♦
3♠ 4♣
5♣ all pass

Lead: 2♠

---

[y66]

I'll try for spades 4-4, ace with RHO, hearts 4-3 and clubs xxx - Jx either way.

Ruff spade, HA pitching spade, ruff heart, ruff spade, ruff heart, CA, CK, CT and now I hope that whoever has the ace of diamonds is out of hearts so that I can make 2 spade ruffs, HA, 2 heart ruffs, a diamond, 4 top clubs and a spade at the end.

Don't like playing for all that. But I can't come up with an alternative.

[keylime]

Consider how the play will be, if you do NOT ruff the first spade. I think is a more subtle hand than what it appears.

[mikeh]

y66, on Jan 8 2009, 01:43 PM, said:

I'll try for spades 4-4, ace with RHO, hearts 4-3 and clubs xxx - Jx either way.

Ruff spade, HA pitching spade, ruff heart, ruff spade, ruff heart, CA, CK, CT and now I hope that whoever has the ace of diamonds is out of hearts so that I can make 2 spade ruffs, HA, 2 heart ruffs, a diamond, 4 top clubs and a spade at the end.

Don't like playing for all that. But I can't come up with an alternative.

You need to count your winners... and to picture the position at the end of all this... you might survive if the person who wins the diamond ace (on the 2nd round of the suit) cannot lead a heart.. if they can, you have to ruff with your last trump and lead away from your KJ of spades...

Note also that an overruff in hearts, which is not a trivial possibility, also does you in... they will then be in a position to cash 2 Aces (you will be out of trump in dummy)

So: you have hit upon a line that MIGHT work, but I suggest you think about what happens if, as Keylime suggests, you pitch from dummy on round one... yes, you lose the spade A and (sooner or later) the diamond Ace... but you can't make anyway if trump break badly... and while pitching loses a spade trick that might seem avoidable (of course, it really isn't avoidable), it also establishes the K.... it is always a good idea, at trick one, not to give in to the reflexive urge to take a ruff.. at least think about 'what if I don't ruff?' You may, after such thought, conclude that the ruff is the best choice, but that would be a decision, not a reflex, and therefore more likely to be correct.

[HeavyDluxe]

I started with lose a ♠, win a ♠, ♦ towards dummy, ruff the expected return, ♥A, then ♥ ruffs and diamonds for pitches.

Eventually ruffing the last ♠ in dummy unless ♦s break 3/3. But, being at the office, I can't really check this.

[Benoit35]

Give up the first trick; when you eventually get control, cash the ♠K and ruff two more spades (ruffing hearts to get back in hand), and you're looking at something like

♠
♥A6
♦KQJ84
♣

♠ J
♥
♦65
♣ AKT8

If the spades were 4-4 your jack is now good. Cross your fingers for a doubleton ♣J.

If you try to run the diamonds after pulling trumps, a competent defender will duck the first trick leaving you with no way to dummy. All those yummy red tricks are worthless. You have to establish a second spade trick is what you have to do.

If it works, you have one trick for every trump card, two spades and a diamond in the end. The ♥A is useless, don't cash it ahead of time or a 5-2 break means trouble when you try to get in hand a second time.

[vuroth]

Benoit35, on Jan 8 2009, 03:11 PM, said:

If you try to run the diamonds after pulling trumps, a competent defender will duck the first trick leaving you with no way to dummy.

I think that this may be the single most important realization I've taken so far from this hand.

At the table, I played for the ace to fall on the first round of diamonds, which isn't uncommon in some games I play. Alas, I was playing against much better opponents than usual, and this did not work.

While I hadn't pulled trumps yet, I was nonetheless in trouble.

V

[Echognome]

You also have to figure out what you are going to do if after winning the ♠A, RHO returns a trump.

[vuroth]

Echognome, on Jan 8 2009, 03:30 PM, said:

You also have to figure out what you are going to do if after winning the ♠A, RHO returns a trump.

Gah I was just going to say that. I've thought it through a few different lines, and while my analysis is always suspect, a trump return by west does seem best.

(West does have the ace of spades)

[Benoit35]

I was just going to add that, yes, if a trump is returned at trick two, we're screwed.

But I think this is a hard return to find, especially since our failure to ruff at trick one is liable to play mind games with the defense. Sitting in East's seat, if I see a dummy who doesn't ruff with his short trumps, I'm thinking declarer has a better use for these trumps - like pulling ours. And I usually try to avoid helping declarer do what he wants to do.

Quote

Benoit35, on Jan 8 2009, 03:11 PM, said:

If you try to run the diamonds after pulling trumps, a competent defender will duck the first trick leaving you with no way to dummy.

I think that this may be the single most important realization I've taken so far from this hand.

At the table, I played for the ace to fall on the first round of diamonds, which isn't uncommon in some games I play. Alas, I was playing against much better opponents than usual, and this did not work.

While I hadn't pulled trumps yet, I was nonetheless in trouble.

V

Did the defense pull trumps for you after that?

[HeavyDluxe]

re: the ♦ stuff... yes, we're boned if they don't rise with the Ace. I thought I could ruff a spade and still get in, but then I'm short one.

Mea culpa.

[kenberg]

I will leave this up as an example of bad thinking and then suggest an alternate. My error.
Bad thinking begins here:

A trump return at trick 2 and you are fine, with a little bit of luck.

Win on the board
Small heart ruffed
Ruff a spade
Ruff a small heart back to hand
Draw trump
Lead a D for a Fork: If they take the D, you have an entry with your other D. If it was west that went up with his ace you surely have enough tricks, if it was E, taking your king, you may have enough tricks. If they do not take the ace, pitch your last D on the ace of hearts. You now lose no diamonds. You lost one spade at trick one, you ruffed one, you cash the king of spades, you lose a spade to Q, your last spade is good. This assumes that the Q of spades had no more than three spots with it, likely from the lead of the 2.

The trick is not to prematurely cash the ace of hearts. This will present them with a dilemma when you lead the D.

OOPS

I used my last trump on the last trip back to hand. So while I can establish thew fifth spade I can't cash it.

I think I will just play for 3-3 in the diamonds. At trick 3, after winning the trump on the board, I play the king of diamonds. If they duck, then as before but I have a trump left at the end. If they take their ace then they have to play another D else i have an entry and plenty of tricks, But then I take my pitches on the heart and the third D,ruff a heart, ruff a spade, ruff a heart, draw, and i still have a trump after i drop the spade Q.

If diamonds are 4-2 I don't see this as working. What would work after spade to ace and a trump return if diamonds are 4-2? I need to think about this.

[RichMor]

kenberg, on Jan 8 2009, 04:20 PM, said:

A trump return at trick 2 and you are fine, with a little bit of luck.

Win on the board
Small heart ruffed
Ruff a spade
Ruff a small heart back to hand
Draw trump
Lead a D for a Fork: If they take their Ace, you have an entry with your other D. If it was west that went up with his ace you surely have enough tricks, if it was E, taking your king, you may have enough tricks. If they do not take the ace, pitch your last D on the ace of hearts. You now lose no diamonds. You lost one spade at trick one, you ruffed one, you cash the king of spades, you lose a spade to Q, your last spade is good. This assumes that the Q of spades had no more than three spots with it, likely from the lead of the 2.

The trick is not to prematurely cash the ace of hearts. This will present them with a dilemma when you lead the D.

Neat

Didn't consider a fork. Nice analysis.

[vuroth]

kenberg, on Jan 8 2009, 04:20 PM, said:

Draw trump

Clarify, please. I'm looking at singleton Q opposite AKT8, with 5 trump to the J outstanding, right?

[ArtK78]

[deleted]

[kenberg]

RichMor, on Jan 8 2009, 04:30 PM, said:

kenberg, on Jan 8 2009, 04:20 PM, said:

A trump return at trick 2 and you are fine, with a little bit of luck.

Win on the board
Small heart ruffed
Ruff a spade
Ruff a small heart back to hand
Draw trump
Lead a D for a Fork: If they take their Ace, you have an entry with your other D. If it was west that went up with his ace you surely have enough tricks, if it was E, taking your king, you may have enough tricks.  If they do not take the ace, pitch your last D on the ace of hearts. You now  lose no diamonds. You lost one spade at trick one, you ruffed one, you cash the king of spades, you lose a spade to Q, your last spade is good. This assumes that the Q of spades had no more than three spots with it, likely from the lead of the 2.

The trick is not to prematurely cash the ace of hearts. This will present them with a dilemma when you lead the D.

Neat

Didn't consider a fork. Nice analysis.

Nice but wrong, see edited post above. But thanks, I'll take compliments where I can get them.

[vuroth]

I now have inside information that I ruffed the opening lead at the table.

In my analysis this morning, the first thing I realized was that ruffing the opening trick was very likely to be wrong. Guess I moved too quickly at the time.

My line, at the table (I think!), was to concede the first diamond trick, draw trump, hope diamonds were 3-3 and claim. When I played this, I was really hoping that my opponents weren't as good as I feared they were. Like I said earlier, I was wrong.

That's what you get for making weak plays against weak players I guess. Sometimes they work, but you don't really learn anything.

If opponents reliably rise with the ace at first opportunity, my approach at least has a chance, and a faint chance was all I felt the hand had when I first saw it. I think that, as a developing player, i sometimes get a "faint hope" hand, fine one line that might work, and run with it. This can't be the right approach.

W

[vuroth]

kenberg, on Jan 8 2009, 04:20 PM, said:

I think I will just play for 3-3 in the diamonds. At trick 3, after winning the trump on the board, I play the king of diamonds.

East plays the T♦.

Any thoughts?

[mikeh]

I think that you need a fair amount of luck to bring this home, but here is the line that I suggest:

Spoiler

duck the spade lead, pitching a heart (it really doesn't matter.. a diamond would do)

Assume a trump back. Insert the 8 or the 7.. I assume you have to win in dummy, ruff a heart to hand and ruff a spade. Now lead the diamond K...

If they win this, and return a diamond, you need diamonds 3-3... you get to pitch a spade on each red winner and your K is good, you've ruffed one, and lost one at trick 1.

If they duck the diamond, which they shouldn't... and certainly shouldn't if the suit is 4-2... cash the heart A to shed your diamond loser, ruff a heart (or a diamond if that seems safer at that point... depends on the spots you see) and cash AK trump, then spade K and exit a low spade... unless the Q has appeared.

They may not return a trump, but I don't think this alters the main point... I can't imagine them returning a spade... if they return a heart, ruff and you now have time to lead a diamond out of your hand.. if that survives, you can try heart A, pitching a diamond, heart ruff, spade K and spade ruff, diamond ruff, spade ruff with the Queen, red suit ruff (probably a heart) and cash the club A and exit your last spade... playing for club Jack onside... and whoever wins the spade to be endplayed. You are planning to score 1 diamond, 1 heart, 1 high spade, 2 spade ruffs, 3 red suit ruffs, and the AK10 of trump. Or you can cash the club Q, then the heart A, throwing a diamond, and revert to the line above... if the opps are honest count givers, I'd try that. If they win the first diamond, you are basically back to my main line anyway.

BTW, any player who sees this at the table is, imho, advanced or better... this is beyond what I would expect a B/I player to find.. of course, I may have missed a better line, which will say more about me than about the problem

[kenberg]

I think it is a tough hand. I am still not sure what the best line is. If diamonds are 3-3 then, of course assuming clubs are 3-2, it can be made.

Certainly your larger point is right. We should not assume the defense will help us out by taking the ace right off.