[RichMor]

kenberg, on Jan 8 2009, 04:44 PM, said:

RichMor, on Jan 8 2009, 04:30 PM, said:

kenberg, on Jan 8 2009, 04:20 PM, said:

A trump return at trick 2 and you are fine, with a little bit of luck.

Win on the board
Small heart ruffed
Ruff a spade
Ruff a small heart back to hand
Draw trump
Lead a D for a Fork: If they take their Ace, you have an entry with your other D. If it was west that went up with his ace you surely have enough tricks, if it was E, taking your king, you may have enough tricks.  If they do not take the ace, pitch your last D on the ace of hearts. You now  lose no diamonds. You lost one spade at trick one, you ruffed one, you cash the king of spades, you lose a spade to Q, your last spade is good. This assumes that the Q of spades had no more than three spots with it, likely from the lead of the 2.

The trick is not to prematurely cash the ace of hearts. This will present them with a dilemma when you lead the D.

Neat

Didn't consider a fork. Nice analysis.

Nice but wrong, see edited post above. But thanks, I'll take compliments where I can get them.

Yes. In the mental replay I lost it at trick 11.

We start with 6 Clubs in hand.

1. Spade to RHO's Ace.
2. Club return from RHO won in dummy.
3. Heart from dummy, ruff in hand
4. Spade, ruff in dummy
5. Heart, ruff in hand

So far that's 3 Clubs from hand.

6. Club from hand, pitch Heart. Assumed both opps followed to trick 6.
7. Club from hand, pitch Heart.

That's 5 Clubs from hand.

Dummy has Heart Ace and 5 Diamonds left.

Declarer has 3 Spades, 2 Diamonds, and 1 Club.

8. Lead Diamond. If they duck, win in dummy.
9. Ace of hearts from dummy and pitch Diamond from hand.
10. Diamond from dummy, ruff in hand with sixth and final Club.
11. Spade King

Forgot the remaining Spades in hand might not be good. Think I will give up mental card play in 2009 and use paper and pencil.

[kenberg]

vuroth, on Jan 8 2009, 05:16 PM, said:

kenberg, on Jan 8 2009, 04:20 PM, said:

I think I will just play for 3-3 in the diamonds. At trick 3, after winning the trump on the board, I play the king of diamonds.

East plays the T♦.

Any thoughts?

If the Ten is from Tx and they take the ace first round, my thought is that I am not making this. If they duck, I am. The next diamond lead that they see for taking will be in the next hand.

[Wackojack]

kenberg, on Jan 8 2009, 04:44 PM, said:

RichMor, on Jan 8 2009, 04:30 PM, said:

kenberg, on Jan 8 2009, 04:20 PM, said:

A trump return at trick 2 and you are fine, with a little bit of luck.

Win on the board
Small heart ruffed
Ruff a spade
Ruff a small heart back to hand
Draw trump
Lead a D for a Fork: If they take their Ace, you have an entry with your other D. If it was west that went up with his ace you surely have enough tricks, if it was E, taking your king, you may have enough tricks.  If they do not take the ace, pitch your last D on the ace of hearts. You now  lose no diamonds. You lost one spade at trick one, you ruffed one, you cash the king of spades, you lose a spade to Q, your last spade is good. This assumes that the Q of spades had no more than three spots with it, likely from the lead of the 2.

The trick is not to prematurely cash the ace of hearts. This will present them with a dilemma when you lead the D.

Neat

Didn't consider a fork. Nice analysis.

Nice but wrong, see edited post above. But thanks, I'll take compliments where I can get them.

After the last diamond goes on the Ace of hearts you will be in dummy with:
♥x♦QJx opposite ♠KJ7 ♣10. If you use up your trump you will need the ♠Q to fall on the King which is unlikely. Better chance is an end play in diamonds. Play ♦Q and if the Ace is not in the same hand as the remaining master ♥ then over the ♠KJ must either play to dummy's master diamonds or into the ♠KJ. If the ♦A is under the ♠KJ then at least you will be given a free finesse in spades.

If when opps lead a trump at trick 2 and the 10 in your hand holds, you can play the same way but you will have 2 clubs in your hand with a 5 card end postion. So you possibly have a better option of playing spades by force. Making when 4-4 or the Q comes down in 3.

[RichMor]

Maybe the 'fork' can still work.

1. Pitch Heart. RHO wins Ace and returns trump.
2. Win in dummy
3. Club to hand
4. Another Club, assume they split 3-2
We still have 3 trump.

5. Diamond toward dummy.
At this point, RHO has a problem if holding the Diamond Ace.

6. If RHO wins, claim.
6. If RHO plays low, play King.

7. If King wins cash Heart Ace, discard Diamond.
8. Ruff to hand, play K and another Spade.
We still have 2 trump. If Spades are 4-4 or Queen falls on second or third round, we are OK,

7. RHO wins Diamond and returns Spade
8. Win the King.
9. Lead Diamond to dummy.
10. Cash third Diamond, pitch Spade. If both follow, claim.

This seems to work if Diamonds are 3-3, or Spades are 4-4, or RHO has the Diamond Ace.

Gotta say 'seems to work' cause I usually miss something.

[Benoit35]

Rich, I took the line from your second-last post and reached this after 9 tricks - assuming opponents didn't win the first diamond trick, which gives you the contract or at least a chance to win with 3-3 diamonds:

♠
♥
♦ QJ84
♣

♠ KJ7
♥
♦
♣ T

Now, lead the ♦Q. If East covers, then ruff and plunk down the ♠K in a last-ditch attempt to catch a now stiff ♠Q. I doubt it will work.

If East doesn't cover, ditch the ♠7 and West wins the ace. He can't lead a spade into your ♠KJ so he has to play whatever red card he has left. If it's a diamond - bingo! So essentially, this line banks on West holding the ♦A and only three hearts.

[mikeh]

I think Benoit's line is reasonable, but it has to be less than playing for any 3-3 diamond break, especially when we can add in the chance of misdefence even when the suit is 4-2. A 3-3 diamond break is 35.5%. The odds of West holding the diamond Ace are (a priori) 50%, and then we have to factor in the odds of his holding fewer than 4 hearts.. btw, by the time we were making this play, we'd know a lot more about the percentages... it seems to be a priori 50% that West holds the long hearts, reducing our estimated odds to 25%... at the time of the play, we'd have this refined.

Assume RHO returns a trump at trick 2: win in dummy, ruff a heart, ruff a spade, lead the diamond K.

if diamonds are 3-3.. you are home: they win, and even if they return a diamond, you have 2 spade pitches on the red winners. They duck, and you pitch your diamond loser, return to hand with a ruff, pull trump and play spade K... making if spades are 4-4 or the Queen drops.

if diamonds are 4-2, and they win the first one and return the suit, you will need the spade Queen to be tripleton.

But they may duck the diamond.

I think this is the higher percentage line.

They may not return a trump... there are differing options available at that point.

[RichMor]

Benoit35, on Jan 9 2009, 09:19 AM, said:

Rich, I took the line from your second-last post and reached this after 9 tricks - assuming opponents didn't win the first diamond trick, which gives you the contract or at least a chance to win with 3-3 diamonds:

♠ 
♥ 
♦ QJ84 
♣ 

♠ KJ7 
♥ 
♦ 
♣ T

Now, lead the ♦Q.  If East covers, then ruff and plunk down the ♠K in a last-ditch attempt to catch a now stiff ♠Q.  I doubt it will work.

If East doesn't cover, ditch the ♠7 and West wins the ace.  He can't lead a spade into your ♠KJ so he has to play whatever red card he has left.  If it's a diamond - bingo!  So essentially, this line banks on West holding the ♦A and only three hearts.

Yes, the line I posted last night is wrong (again).

In the 6-card end positions after declarer has discarded a second Diamond on the Heart Ace and ruffed a Heart to hand, the closed hand has ♠)KJxx and ♣)xx. I forgot that 2 of the Spades will be losers.


The line you posted seems like it might work. This is hand is too hard, maybe 5♣ is impossible with best defense.

[RichMor]

mikeh, on Jan 9 2009, 11:56 AM, said:

<snip>
if diamonds are 3-3.. you are home: they win, and even if they return a diamond, you have 2 spade pitches on the red winners. They duck, and you pitch your diamond loser, return to hand with a ruff, pull trump and play spade K... making if spades are 4-4 or the Queen drops.

if diamonds are 4-2, and they win the first one and return the suit, you will need the spade Queen to be tripleton.
<snip>

Yes, 'if diamonds are 3-3' you have 2 Spade pitches.

But how do you know ?

If a defender wins the Diamond Ace at trick 5 and returns a Diamond at trick 6, you can win in dummy and cash the Heart Ace. That's one spade pitch.

What next?

Seems like declarer has to guess now whether to play a third Diamond or ruff a Heart.

Right ?