jdonn, on Feb 18 2008, 11:13 PM, said:
jtfanclub, on Feb 18 2008, 06:50 PM, said:
Three diamonds...
-Isn't going to make.
-Is going to tell them about their fit.
-Is going to make it easier for them to find game.
- And why the heck not?
- Call me crazy, but they already found it!
- Yes much easier when they no longer have a 3
♦ bid. And why should they have game anyway, we have an opener and partner has enough to raise, we could easily even own the hand.
Why?
Because I think partner has 5-9 hcp. And I think that two of those hcp are likely to be the queen of diamonds, and that (depending on the jack of diamonds) would make it 2-7 hcp outside of diamonds. Unless one of those clubs is an ace and they lead a minor suit, I think it's likely that any club honors will be useless on offense- it's not like I can lead to them. It also makes me nervous that partner didn't double: either he doesn't have a 4 card major, or he was too weak to make a call.
If he has a hand like xxx xx QJxx Kxxx, which I consider typical, we're down 1. Of course, they're likely to make 5
♣, so it's not like 3
♦ is a horrible place to be. On the other hand, he could have Kxx xx QJxx Kxxx, which would be a max, but then they bid 4
♣ and make it, so what have we accomplished?
They know they have a fit, but they don't know how large a fit it is. They certainly don't know that three small diamonds is not two or three losers. I hope you're not arguing that 3
♦ doesn't convey any useful information to them.
Normally, opener vs. raise, I wouldn't be worried about a game. In this case, we have 10 or 11 diamonds and three controls, which I'm not so sure will be worth even one defensive trick. Outside of the diamond suit, well, we've got no sure tricks or controls and we're the opener. Maybe you have a different range for 2
♦ there than I do, but the way I play it we cannot own the hand.
I think the hands where 4
♣ goes down for them are...rather unlikely. Yes, partner might have JT987 of clubs and 8 points in the majors, but it's not something I'd like to gamble on. I also think it's unlikely that we'll buy the hand in 3
♦. So I don't think the 3
♦ passing 4
♣ accomplishes a big deal, if they stop at 4
♣.
I think they're much more likely to go to game if I bid 3
♦. If you think the bad club split will keep them from making it, and you're bidding 3
♦ to try to get them to bid game, well, I can certainly accept that. Maybe that's right.
But if you're thinking of 3
♦ as a wtp bid without considering where the auction may go next, well, I beg that you reconsider. Yeah, I know you did, but that was a generic 'you' this time.