[mikeh]

Scoring: IMP

After an uncontested, brief auction to 6♥, the opps lead a low club. You win, csah the top trumps and RHO has Qxx. Cash the top ♠ and go to dummy. Your guess as to the order in which you play the top winners in dummy is, to your surprise, important. Would you guess right? If so, are you flipping a coin or reasoning it out?

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[pclayton]

The only thing I can see is that LHO is more apt to have ♠QTxxxxx than ♦QJTxxxx since he was silent.

So I'll try the ♦ 1st.

[CSGibson]

Agree with Phil, mostly because a diamond wasn't led.

[kenrexford]

If RHO plays a diamond on the first diamond, especially the Jack, this makes it more likely that I need to cash spade first, obviously.

That said, I am inclined to cash spades first.

I'm assuming a 1♥ opening by South. West is known to have a stiff heart. As a passed hand, he must be rather balanced in the two other suits (not the seven-bagger threat suit). That gives him either:

(a.) ♠Q10xxxxx ♥x ♦xx(x) ♣xx(x) or
(b.) ♠xx(x) ♥x ♦Q10xxxxx ♣xx(x)

I cannot imagine passing 1♥ with (a.) unless 2♠ would have been an intermediate call, and there is no indication of any unusual systems.

On (b.), however, it is very plausible for LHO to not want to make a three-level weak jump overcall with such a lousy suit.

The bottom line is that any seven-bagger yields a hand that is, at a minimum, and eight-loser hand, or five tricks. That's enough for most to hop in with a two-level preemptive overcall but not a three-level overcall. Hence, the most likely seven-bager for LHO is diamonds. Furthermore, this also acknowledges that 3♦, not the boss suit, offers only immediate prospects, whereas 2♠ offers greater possibilities of long-term prospects when partner can cooperate. Heck, with (a.), game is very plausible.

[kgr]

kenrexford, on Feb 18 2008, 08:51 PM, said:

If RHO plays a diamond on the first diamond, especially the Jack, this makes it more likely that I need to cash spade first, obviously.

And if RHO played ♠T ...or ♠Q under ♠A?

[kenrexford]

kgr, on Feb 18 2008, 06:24 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Feb 18 2008, 08:51 PM, said:

If RHO plays a diamond on the first diamond, especially the Jack, this makes it more likely that I need to cash spade first, obviously.

And if RHO played ♠T ...or ♠Q under ♠A?

The Queen would change things, but not the 10.

[Codo]

I think that LHO had lead from QJTxxxx in Diamonds more often then from QTxxxxx in Spades, so I cash the Diamond first if no honour is played under the ace.

And I don´t buy that QTxxxxx and out in spade is a more common weak jump then QJTxxxx in Diamonds. I would prefer the later by far.

But I must admit that at the table just a high card in the first round of a suit or a lead of the suit had woken me up, else I had played the suits in random order.