[nickf]

Scoring: IMP

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you're in 6H on the D7 lead against weak opponents. I suppose there are two plausible lines:

1) Strip the hand and run a spade...but which spade is best?
2) Take the diamond finesse @ T1...but which finesse is better?

nickf
sydney

[jtfanclub]

I'll bite.

Take the ace, pull three rounds of trump, club to dummy, ruff a diamond, two more rounds of clubs, sluffing a spade, then the queen of diamonds.

If it's not covered, let it run, sluffing a spade. Wins 100% of the time.

If it is covered, ruff, and lead a low spade towards the 10. If RHO wins with the jack and plays another spade, play the queen. Wins 75% of the time or so, only loses when RHO has the jack, LHO has the king, and LHO doesn't play the king on the first spade.

If I feel confident that they would never underlead a king, I can play the queen of diamonds after drawing trump, sluffing a spade if he doesn't cover, then after finishing off the clubs play the ten of diamonds, sluffing a spade if he doesn't cover.

[awm]

I'd strip the hand and run a spade.

Diamond finesse wins if I guess diamonds right at trick one, or if the spade king is on. Roughly 75% (ignoring 4-0 heart breaks). If I (say) run the spade ten, I win if LHO has ♠J (he will be endplayed), or if RHO has ♠K, or if LHO has ♠K9. This loses only if LHO has the king and RHO the J9 (which is 87.5%). Note that running the eight loses to the same exact position, whereas playing to the queen first is only 75% (playing for king onside or LHO has at least one of the J/9 and we guess which).

[Apollo81]

The opponents are slightly less likely to cover the ♠8 than the ♠10 in my experience; that's what I'd run.

[jtfanclub]

Apollo81, on Jun 26 2007, 05:09 PM, said:

The opponents are slightly less likely to cover the ♠8 than the ♠10 in my experience; that's what I'd run.

Arrrgh.

Here's the 5 card holding when using my method:
♠T85
♥ 9
♦ Q

♠AQ3
♥74

You lead a diamond, if they cover ruff, low spade to the ten, planning to play the queen if it loses.

The method you mention, if you push the ten, loses when RHO has the jack, and LHO has the king. Pushing the 8 has the same odds (assuming they cover with the 9 when they have it).

The method I showed loses when the RHO has the jack, and LHO has the king, and RHO has the king of diamonds.

This is as pure an apples-to-apples comparison as you can get. Leading the Queen of diamonds and hoping it rides doesn't cost anything, and it may win for you.

[jtfanclub]

Jlall, on Jun 26 2007, 05:27 PM, said:

no, his line loses when RHO has the jack of spades AND the 9 of spades.

You're right, my mistake. Sorry about that. Sometimes it takes a 2x4 for me to see things....

[Echognome]

If trumps are 2-1, we can combine both chances, no?

That is ♦A, ♦ruff. Draw trumps and then three rounds of clubs throwing a spade, then:

If trumps are 2-1, ♦Q, if not covered, discard a spade and claim. If covered, ruff and play a trump to dummy to lead the ♠T.

If trumps are 3-0, then you have to choose one line or the other. It seems in that case that the 87.5% of running the ♠T is best.

[Fluffy]

you can also play ♠A then spade to the queen, catching doubleton honnors, but the percentage is lower than running a spade.

[jtfanclub]

Hmmm...maybe I can take advantage of bad opponents....

If I strip the hand down, and lead a low spade from dummy, and the next player plays the 4, I can duck and thereby make the contract. If, for example, RHO has J94, the play of any of the three cards will give me the contract, but only if I lead low.

If I assume that RHO will not play the 7 from J974, the odds seem the same as the other methods. If a spade has been discarded, however, things change, depending on what has been discarded.

[bid_em_up]

nickf, on Jun 26 2007, 04:44 PM, said:

you're in 6H on the D7 lead against weak opponents. I suppose there are two plausible lines:

1) Strip the hand and run a spade...but which spade is best?
2) Take the diamond finesse @ T1...but which finesse is better?

nickf
sydney

jtfanclub, on Jun 27 2007, 09:00 AM, said:

Hmmm...maybe I can take advantage of bad opponents.....

You probably can take advantage of bad opponents, but I suspect that you are overlooking the obvious.

Assuming LHO is leading his 4th best diamond, RHO only holds 1 diamond higher than the 7, right?

I'm more inclined to believe that a bad opponent has led from J987 than from K987. They simply will not lead away from a king vs. a slam.

Play the diamond 10 at trick 1. It is likely to lose to the King, eliminating any need for a spade finesse. If it loses to the jack, well, at least you still get to try the straightforward spade finesse, as opposed to trying to guess spade spots later. You probably get to try it at trick two.

Yes, this line may be technically "inferior", but it is also more likely to win vs. bad opponents, imo.

[jtfanclub]

bid_em_up, on Jun 27 2007, 09:36 AM, said:

Play the diamond 10 at trick 1. It is likely to lose to the King, eliminating any need for a spade finesse. If it loses to the jack, well, at least you still get to try the straightforward spade finesse, as opposed to trying to guess spade spots later. You probably get to try it at trick two.

Better to play the ace of diamonds, draw trump, club to the board, ruff the queen of diamonds (it should be covered). Now play the last two clubs, sluffing a spade, and play the ten of diamonds, and duck if it isn't covered.

That still works if LHO has the jack of diamonds, but you can fall back on a 75% shot (low to the ten) instead of a 50% shot (straight finesse). And if trumps are 2-1, you can do even better...use this scheme followed by a trump to the board and force the ten through.