[mikl_plkcc]

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I downgraded this hand to 14.5 due to having all queens and opened 1♣, and attracted intervention. I then chickened out from bidding 3NT because I didn't have a stopper in ♦, hoping that 4♣ would be a safe choice.

It turned out that the majority bid and made 3NT, and 4♣ was indeed hopeless. I lost 10.2 IMPs here.

How could I know that 3NT would be safe? Or should I bid it anyway whenever holding 4333 as a dummy?

[smerriman]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-March-27, 15:31, said:

How could I know that 3NT would be safe?

Wrong question.. why would you assume 3NT has no hope? You only need it to make a small amount of time for you to be better off bidding it.

Both 1♣ and 4♣ are ludicrous IMO.

[helene_t]

With a human partner you could bid 3h to show a heart stopper , then hopefully p will bid 3nt if they have a diamond stopper.

I am not convinced it will work with a robot partner.

[DavidKok]

• Hand type first. Even if 3NT might appear risky to you, 4♣ is also dangerous.
  
• Downgrading 16 into 14 is often a losing action.
  
• You do have a diamond stopper. If I recall correctly this came up on an older thread as well?

[pescetom]

It's a horrible hand, but I dislike the downgrade all the same.
After 2NT you are rather unlucky to be playing with a Robot rather than a human, but 3♦ is not the worst it could do and now 3NT seems obvious.

[mikl_plkcc]

If the ♦7 became ♦10 I would have opened 1NT already. It was a very marginal hand.

I am very scared of bidding 3NT unless the opponent's suit has 1.5 stops, because I am afraid that the opponents can run off the first 5 tricks, especially that this hand is so quacky that I downgraded it by more than an HCP.

I have enough horrors of bidding 3NT holding Ax in the opponent's suit, when they knock out my only stopper at trick 1, and run the suit before I can develop my slow quacky holdings.

I don't understand why 4♣ didn't give me an extra trick even when I had a 5-4 fit.

[smerriman]

But even if 4♣ had made - and suits usually take more tricks because of ruffs, and you have zero ruffing ability - you would have had a terrible score. And if half the time 3NT goes down because the opponents could run the first 5 tricks.. you still want to be playing 3NT, because the IMPs you gain from the other half add up to more. And your queen will usually stop them running the suit (either combined with what partner has, or even if they have nothing..)

At IMPs you should be *much* more scared of 3NT making and not being in it than the other way around.

[helene_t]

You need to get rid of that fear for bidding notrumps. Hamman's law says that if 3nt is a plausible contract and now may be the last opportunity to bid it, you ahould bid 3nt.

Bidding 3nt can be wrong but so canany other call. Bridge is not a game of certainty.

It's not a terrible hand, I would ooen 1nt even if playing 16-18. You have one ten after all.

[hrothgar]

Few high level observations

As a rule, people seem to look for opportunities to upgrade hands into their NT range. You see many less situations where they will downgrade hands OUT of their NT range. Is this logically consistent? Perhaps not. Does it seem to be winning bridge? I think so. More importantly a whole lot of top bridge players thinks so. (Somewhere, in the annals of this site, there is a post from Fred in which he touches upon this)

With respect to this specific hand, you are quite right that this hand lacks Aces and shape and has a lot of Queens. These are all terrible qualities if you're thinking to play in a suit contract. It matters a whole lot less for a 1NT opening where the old Work point count actually works reasonable well. And yes, all those Queens suck, but the T9 of spades is actually a real nice feature for a NT contract.

One key issue of this hand that you're missing: Partner was never able to show his four card Spade suit. Give yourself one less card in the red suits and one more spade and you're going to be even less happy about playing in clubs...

[hrothgar]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-March-27, 17:35, said:

I am very scared of bidding 3NT unless the opponent's suit has 1.5 stops, because I am afraid that the opponents can run off the first 5 tricks, especially that this hand is so quacky that I downgraded it by more than an HCP.

Bridge is about playing the odds.
It is not about achieving a perfect score on every hand and its not about getting a positive score on every hand.

***** happens
Learn to get over it

[eagles123]

vul at imps you should basically never downgrade out of your NT range.

[Cyberyeti]

I wouldn't downgrade, but does 3N actually make ?

Diamond lead and return, you knock the club out, 3rd diamond and they appear to have 5 tricks. Also swap the minor suit aces between the hands and a heart lead beats it too unless you go for spades before clubs.

[mikl_plkcc]

Cyberyeti, on 2025-March-28, 04:49, said:

I wouldn't downgrade, but does 3N actually make ?

Diamond lead and return, you knock the club out, 3rd diamond and they appear to have 5 tricks. Also swap the minor suit aces between the hands and a heart lead beats it too unless you go for spades before clubs.

The vast majority of the tables made 3NT, some with overtricks.

[Cyberyeti]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-March-28, 05:18, said:

The vast majority of the tables made 3NT, some with overtricks.

3N isn't any better than 4♣, it shouldn't make. It's just that the reward is higher for making it. 4♣ is unlucky not to make, requires the same diamond lead to beat it

[mikl_plkcc]

Cyberyeti, on 2025-March-28, 05:42, said:

3N isn't any better than 4♣, it shouldn't make. It's just that the reward is higher for making it. 4♣ is unlucky not to make, requires the same diamond lead to beat it

but the opponents are much more likely to lead the 4th best from ♥ against a notrump contract, where in a suit contract, underleading an honour is a big no.

[Cyberyeti]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-March-28, 07:19, said:

but the opponents are much more likely to lead the 4th best from ♥ against a notrump contract, where in a suit contract, underleading an honour is a big no.

And it's pure luck that W happens to have ♣A rather than the more likely (5 diamonds to 1-2 clubs) ♦A, if the minor aces are reversed, the defense has 6 tricks on a heart lead.

[P_Marlowe]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-March-27, 15:31, said:

It turned out that the majority bid and made 3NT, and 4♣ was indeed hopeless. I lost 10.2 IMPs here.

How could I know that 3NT would be safe? Or should I bid it anyway whenever holding 4333 as a dummy?

#1 you have no idea, that 3NT would be safe
#2 4333 shape is not an asset, it is even a reason to downgrade
#3 missing a makeble 3NT on a 24 count is not the end of the world, someone in the thread said, 3NT could
be defeated, but defence is hard

Having said that:
Bidding 4C is a stupid call, as it is , partner is dead min for his call, but could be a bit stronger,
3NT may be cold, but the law of bridge dont allow reaching 3NT after someone bid 4C.

A reason peoble like to open NT as much is possible, their agreement sets after a 1NT opening are usually
better than after a suit opening, and agreement sets after minor suit openings are most likely worse than
after major suit opening.
this is one major reason, why lots of peoble like upgrade into NT openings, but rarely
downgrade out of an NT opening.
Add to this, NT openings make it harder for the opponents to enter the bidding.

[mikl_plkcc]

Three likelihood I downgrade a 15 to 14 is the same as I downgrade a 18 to 17. I open 1NT with quacky 18 with honours in doubleton, treating it as a 17 instead. Also, the likelihood I downgrade 15 to 14 is also the same as I upgrade 14 to 15.

I systematically downgrade Q and J and upgrade A and T, and systematically downgrade honours in shortness but upgrade honour in length. When playing NT I treat 4333 as a neutral shape, not an upgrade or downgrade.

[hrothgar]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-March-28, 19:19, said:

Three likelihood I downgrade a 15 to 14 is the same as I downgrade a 18 to 17. I open 1NT with quacky 18 with honours in doubleton, treating it as a 17 instead. Also, the likelihood I downgrade 15 to 14 is also the same as I upgrade 14 to 15.

I systematically downgrade Q and J and upgrade A and T, and systematically downgrade honours in shortness but upgrade honour in length. When playing NT I treat 4333 as a neutral shape, not an upgrade or downgrade.

As I recall, you have also been asking why you're never able to score above average...

[helene_t]

Your criteria for up and downgrading are not unreasonable, as long as the strength of your nt bids are what partner expects. But it seems that you downgrade too much. A queen in a doubleton is maybe 1.6 points or so, certainly not 1 point. I have probably opened 1nt some 40000 times in my life and I don't think I have ever downgraded a balanced hand by more than one point.

In particular you shouldn't up and downgrade away from 1nt openings, since opening 1nt often is winning bridge. OTOH 2nt openings suck so agreeing with p that you need a decent 20 count or any 21 is not crazy.