[thorvald]

---

Leading a singleton K with 2 caching aces :-)

But looking at the explanations

A simulation with 40 boards gave me

Ld   Avg  %Set 	0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13
SA  2.17  97.50* [ 0  1 31  8  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 ]
DA  2.17  97.50* [ 0  1 31  8  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 ]
H7  2.00  87.50  [ 0  5 30  5  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 ]
H9  2.00  87.50  [ 0  5 30  5  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 ]
CK  2.00  87.50  [ 0  5 30  5  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 ]
D5  1.85  72.50  [ 2  9 22  7  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 ]
D3  1.85  72.50  [ 2  9 22  7  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 ]
D8  1.85  72.50  [ 2  9 22  7  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 ]
S8  1.55  45.00  [ 1 21 13  5  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 ]
S2  1.55  45.00  [ 1 21 13  5  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 ]
ST  1.55  45.00  [ 1 21 13  5  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 ]

[smerriman]

If you found 40 boards, then your simulations definitely weren't coming from the descriptions. With East holding 11 HCP, and North promising at least 9, it's literally impossible for South to have the values shown.

I still get an ace lead every time I try to replicate the situation, though K is very close since it rarely ever costs, and given it can't deal any matching hands for South, it probably includes some random hands where West can get in and give you an extra ruff.

[pilowsky]

smerriman, on 2022-October-13, 22:21, said:

If you found 40 boards, then your simulations definitely weren't coming from the descriptions. With East holding 11 HCP, and North promising at least 9, it's literally impossible for South to have the values shown.

I still get an ace lead every time I try to replicate the situation, though K is very close since it rarely ever costs, and given it can't deal any matching hands for South, it probably includes some random hands where West can get in and give you an extra ruff.

Bird and Anthias agree FWIW.

[thepossum]

Not sure exactly on the parameters and how well they match the hands and the bidding but I get two Aces as leads
I ran mine with 18+ points