[pilowsky]

With the assistance of some class bidding by GIB I find myself in 7♣ which, of course, I fail to make.
In retrospect reasonably straightforward - just needed to plan ahead.
Still, a nice hand.

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[DavidKok]

There's a lot to say about this hand. The bidding was less than perfect, and 7♣ is a poor contract. You need to find clubs 3-3 or pick up exactly Jxxx onside on the first round, and the former is more probable. You also need to establish the spades, or find hearts breaking Qx-xxx, or find a major suit squeeze against East on the run of the clubs (there is no entry to the North hand so the long hearts cannot function as a threat).

I would play for trumps 3-3 and go down one in 7♣.

[Cyberyeti]

DavidKok, on 2022-July-27, 03:28, said:

There's a lot to say about this hand. The bidding was less than perfect, and 7♣ is a poor contract. You need to find clubs 3-3 or pick up exactly Jxxx onside on the first round, and the former is more probable. You also need to establish the spades, or find hearts breaking Qx-xxx, or find a major suit squeeze against East on the run of the clubs (there is no entry to the North hand so the long hearts cannot function as a threat).

I would play for trumps 3-3 and go down one in 7♣.

Jx/xxxx will also do, so drop even more favoured.

Finesse works when trumps are 4-2 or 3-3 and the J is onside so about 42%

Drop works when 3-3 or 4-2 with the J is in the short hand so 1/3 of the 4-2s which is around 52-53%

[pilowsky]

DavidKok, on 2022-July-27, 03:28, said:

There's a lot to say about this hand. The bidding was less than perfect, and 7♣ is a poor contract.

Hard to argue so far.

[DavidKok]

Cyberyeti, on 2022-July-27, 03:38, said:

Jx/xxxx will also do, so drop even more favoured.

Finesse works when trumps are 4-2 or 3-3 and the J is onside so about 42%

Drop works when 3-3 or 4-2 with the J is in the short hand so 1/3 of the 4-2s which is around 52-53%

My mistake, both approaches work with Jx(x) onside but I usually exclude those, I completely forgot to mention that this time. I should have written "playing from the top picks up Jx(x) offside where finessing fails, finessing picks up Jxxx onside while playing from the top fails, and in all other scenarios the two approaches get the same result. Therefore playing from the top is percentage."

[Cyberyeti]

DavidKok, on 2022-July-27, 05:19, said:

My mistake, both approaches work with Jx(x) onside but I usually exclude those, I completely forgot to mention that this time. I should have written "playing from the top picks up Jx(x) offside where finessing fails, finessing picks up Jxxx onside while playing from the top fails, and in all other scenarios the two approaches get the same result. Therefore playing from the top is percentage."

Yup, also there are scenarios where trumps are 5-1 and you can make, you need W to hold Kx(x), xxx, xx(x), and then all the clubs bar the J or 9 playing from the top works on both, finessing the 10 only works against stiff 9, basically you reduce to 3 trumps and a heart, W has 3 trumps and a diamond and you lead a winning spade off the deck.

[paulg]

Due to the lack of entries in the North hand, I cannot see any squeeze on the hand unless you are willing to risk cashing two top hearts and, less risky, two diamonds before drawing trumps. Even then it will only be a show-up squeeze that guarantees success.

The practical approach is to to draw trumps, hopefully successfully, then cash the top two hearts to see if the ♥Q drops. If not, then take the ruffing finesse in spades with the diamond entry still in dummy. You'll also need the spades 3-3 or ♠9 dropping.

[pilowsky]

One person in the field (IMPs daylong) bid it and made it. Not me.

Spoiler

My way.

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Their way.

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[Gilithin]

pilowsky, on 2022-July-28, 01:25, said:

One person in the field (IMPs daylong) bid it and made it.

These are the tournaments where you can enter on one account, see the hands, and then enter on a second account later in the day, right?

[smerriman]

Gilithin, on 2022-August-06, 16:21, said:

These are the tournaments where you can enter on one account, see the hands, and then enter on a second account later in the day, right?

No, the odds of seeing the same hand are very low.