HeartA, on May 29 2005, 12:35 AM, said:
I find this kind of HCP oriented thought disturbing. Opener could have ♠Jxx, ♥xx, ♦AKQ(J)x, ♣AKx, or ♠xxx, ♥Kx, ♦AKQxx, ♣AKx, or ♠Jxx, ♥Kx, ♦AKQxxx, ♣AJx, or ♠Jxx, ♥Kx, ♦AKxxx, ♣AKx, or .......
In short, some hands with long, powerful diamond suits will produce extra tricks with spades as trumps. The hands given in this posting almost exhaust those possibilities - indeed, two of them are not very good 2NT rebids, ones I might make playing with a partner who was a poor dummy player (the six bagger with wide open hearts is a perfect 3
♦ bid, and the solid 5 bagger with open hearts is surely flawed and 3
♣ is available to check back for 5-3 spades or a heart stop protected from the opening lead).
Run a simulation or do a thought experiment and get a feeling for just how many possible hands require a 2NT rebid versus how many have the 'magic' diamond holdings. The latter are so few in comparison as to be nearly insignificant. One of Hamman's rules is that if it takes the 'magic' hand to make slam a lay down, then you probably shouldn't even try for it. This strikes me a a variation on that theme.
You only have so much information at your disposal here, and you have to act on it. Bridge is a game of percentages.