y66, on 2020-April-05, 19:58, said:
Obviously a gazillion caveats apply.
Yes, I agree, there are so many different angles to explore in respect of exponential growth and when the UK figures finally 'flatten the curve'.
I don't believe for one minute that the UK would have put in a contingency of building field hospitals or requisitioning private hospitals if they didn't think that there would be far more critical cases. I cannot tell you how many 'new' critical care hospitals are in this contingency, but every day in the UK news it appears that other towns and cities beyond London (4000 beds) are gearing themselves ready for increased numbers.
The UK figures do not include people such as the elderly in care and nursing homes who have died but have not been tested. They are part of the statistics, too. It is truly ironic that the people who care for these people are actually spreading the disease because testing in the UK has been so lax. Then there are probably other vulnerable people in the community who get visited for shopping, cleaning, etc, and have died as a result of covid-19.
It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if our nation's final tally, if everyone was taken into consideration, will be nearly as bad as Italy's. And even if it isn't, too many people have died as a result of not taking preventative measures earlier.