Posted 2019-September-30, 12:21
This is one of the toughest 'plan your auction' hands I have ever seen. As in all such hands, even ones slightly easier than this, the important point is to try to cater to possible auctions and to attempt to do the most practical thing, recognizing that freak hands can never be bid with any assurance that the end result will be ok.
Often one arrives at one's decision through a process of elimination: one ends up choosing an action/plan not because it is 'good' but because it seems less bad than the alternatives.
At the table my thinking would be along these lines:
1. This is not a 2C opener. For me, and I think for most, the sequence 2C - (waiting or negative response) - 3D is forcing. This hand is not remotely strong enough.
2. open 1D: then over 1M? Here are nothing but ugly choices. 3D is a grotesque underbid, especially with silent opps. The silence of the opps suggests that partner has sufficient values, and shape (such that the opps likely can't run 5 tricks in whatever suit they lead...no guarantees on this but it is a reasonable inference) for us to make 3N even when he lacks the hand to justify bidding it after we show about a decent 16 count with a decent suit. A reasonable hand for us would be Ax xx AKJxxx Axx, and if he has say xxxx Kxxx x Axxx he should be passing 3D. Yes, 3N could fail but it is surely odds-on even with a spade lead.
It isn't just missed games we should worry about: by limiting our hand to about a 16 count, with 6 diamonds, we are taking a lot of slams off the table as well. On many hands where slam is fair to good, or even cold, he'll just bid 3N. Kxxx KQxx x Axxx: he'd have zero reason to think of any call other than 3N. He has no safety beyond 3N opposite x Axx AKJxxx KJx
So 3D as a rebid is out. 2N? a misbid and an underbid: two problems for the price of one. We are less likely to miss game after this than after a 3D rebid, but if he does happen to have a good hand, we are likely to miss some good slams, since we are not exactly owning up to 20 hcp and a source of tricks. 2N as a rebid is far better than 3D, by enough that we are going to shortlist this route.
How about 3C? The fake jumpshift often has a lot going for it, but partner's sometimes raise clubs and while we will always correct to diamonds, we may be too high already. 3C has too much risk of missing 3N for me to like it. What would you do with Kxx Qxxx x AJxxx after partner opened 1D and then bid 3C? Surely you'd raise clubs? I'd far rather be in 3N than 5D. So I think that the fake jumpshift is a poor choice.
How about 3N? The sequence 1m 1M 3N traditionally shows something like a running suit (we have that), stoppers in the unbid suits (we are close to that, especially if partner bids 1S) and shortness in partner's suit (which may be untrue: he may bid 1H). It's close. It is likely very good if we have slam, since partner has a close approximation of our playing strength and our short black honours are likely fine IF partner has slam ambitions. It is also a fast way to our most likely game. As for hearts, it would be rare for this hand to be a better dummy in 4H than it is declaring 3N, at least in terms of making or failing. Note that even when we are wide-open in clubs, they will not always lead the suit and, when they do, there is a good chance that the lead will be away from the Ace. Meanwhile as little as 10xx or 9xx(x) may be a spade stopper in notrump but means 2 fast losers in hearts.
3. Open 2N. This has the beneficial effect of showing a good hand: partner will respond on hands where he might pass 1D, but that is not necessarily a good thing. If he is passing 1D, then in the modern style he will have a terrible hand, and is unlikely to be able to shore up both black suits...one, ok, but both? Possible but unlikely.
We are taking diamonds out of play. We might be cold for 6D and fail in 3N...imagine Axxx KQJx xxx xx.
After 2N, can anyone stay out of 3N? 6D is laydown and 3N may be down before we gain the lead.
Also, if we open 1D and the opps compete in a black suit, they may help us choose intelligently between diamonds and notrump, while if we open 2N they will likely be silent and give us no clues.
It takes longer to write all this out than it takes to think it through at the table, especially if you have learned to do this sort of process of elimination analysis, which comes up all the time. Learning to think this way will, imo, be a useful skill for the intermediate and advanced player.
My decision would be to open 1D and then (unless the auction tells me otherwise) rebid 3N. Flawed and imperfect tho that may be, it means that we will basically never miss a good game or slam, at the slight risk of sometimes being too high in 3N. I think this sequence gives the least distortion to our hand.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
Help
Cyberyeti, on 2019-September-30, 04:50, said:
