[thepossum]

Hi all

I spent quite a while debating my final bid on this auction. What do you think. Also could I have explored better sooner. I really wasnt sure how to bid this hand after a 1C opening

I decided after the 5NT that I had two/three losers in spades opposite a void. Partner had 11+ HCPs plus my 16. Distributional points probably 14+19 approx. I had 4 losers and partner probably 6-7. Partner had 2 aces and probably 1 queen (C or D). Also 3+ clubs to the Ace opposite my King to drop one loser on. Also only 3-4 trumps out (possibly JTxx). So I decided not to go for 7 (spade losers) and regretted it. I think I was too conservative on my trump break. Is there anything else that could have brought me down. Almost zero chance of a lead to a void in diamonds and clubs. So I had one loser I wasnt sure about but I think the percentages were with a grand bid. Interestingly nobody else bid it so it scored ok

Part of the problem with the Blackwood was that I couldnt ask for Kings after 5NT

regards P

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[helene_t]

I think your decision was good. There could easily be a spade loser.

[Cyberyeti]

There are lots of things partner could hold that make 7 good but on a trump lead there's no guarantee of parking the 5th spade (you can ruff 2 and park one on A♣).

BUT - what do you think partner's hand and shape is ?

If he has no spades, either he has 4 hearts or 6 clubs since 0355 he opens 1♦. For the grand not to be decent, he would need almost exactly AQ♦, A♣ and 1+ Js (or the 2 aces and all 3 Js).

Were you playing with/against robots ? With a human, I would bid 6♣ over 5N expecting partner to bid 7 with ♣Q or 6♦ with ♦K, and I can now bid the grand.

[etha]

Why did you bid 3♥ that used up a lot of space for no good reason. Just bid 2♥ unless playing negative free bids.

A good general rule is if you have several option that seem to make sense in a constructive situation bid the lowest. I call this garvey's rule but I'm sure someone came up with it before that.

[HardVector]

If you are assuming that partner has 3+ hearts and a spade void and 2 keycards, as indicated, you can see: 3 spade ruffs+spade pitch on A♣=no spade losers. This is assuming the defense doesn't start with a heart lead at trick 1.

[Cyberyeti]

 HardVector, on 2019-February-28, 11:26, said:

If you are assuming that partner has 3+ hearts and a spade void and 2 keycards, as indicated, you can see: 3 spade ruffs+spade pitch on A♣=no spade losers. This is assuming the defense doesn't start with a heart lead at trick 1.

Humans at high level tend to almost automatically lead a trump. Not sure about robots

[thepossum]

Hi all

Thanks for the comments

This was the hand. Its always hard analysing afterwards when you see the cards and I obviously missed some of the considerations. On this layout 7 makes on any lead (I believe). However obviously a 2-2 trump break makes it easier and having AQxxxx clubs made it easier too, although long clubs was clearly a chance. Maybe a good player could have worked out all the possible layouts since the auction constrained things a fair bit. There was a good chance of friendly breaks in spades and diamonds. The most likely trump break would be 3-1 and the worst 4-0 outcome is fairly unlikely. However with JT9 unaccounted for I was a bit uncertain

The reason I bid 3H rather than 2H is that (maybe incorrectly) I'm used to jump raises to show my hand strength ASAP but I understand 2H could have been better. 3H also shut out the possible interference but did get in the way of low level cue bids. I'm not sure how a cue bid sequence would have worked. Maybe North would bid 4H immediately and not explore cues??

Thanks again

P

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[akwoo]

The reason that 3♥ is bad with this hand is that it makes it very hard to find a spade fit if you have one.

I would bid 7♥ only at matchpoints in a very strong field (one where you would expect everyone to get to at least 6♥), or if I were somewhat behind with not too many boards to go in a team match.

[Cyberyeti]

With that dummy, 7 is great on any lead, it needs at worst hearts not 4-0, clubs 4-2 so very good, with a human partner I would bid 6♣ over 5N, partner bids 7(clubs or hearts) and we will play 7♥. If partner has better clubs he can convert to 7N, although with a human partner, I wouldn't need to as partner would have voidwooded over 3♥ and found out you had ♥AKQ and ♣K (possibly ♠A as well depending on how he did it) and bid 7 himself.

[rmnka447]

I agree with those suggesting bidding 2 ♥ instead of 3 ♥ if not playing negative free bids.

I also agree with your decision to sign off in 6 ♥. Usually bidding grand slam is either a matter of being able to count 13 tricks, or, be sure it depended on something with a reasonably high probability such as a 3-2 break.

But in the actual auction, after partners response to RKCB, you know that partner has both minor As and must be void in ♠. So the focus becomes can you ruff or discard your potential ♠ losers. Is there a way determine that from a question you ask? You rightly discerned that you can't.

If you can't ask the right question, is there anything that you could do that might get partner to help you decide if 6 or 7 is right? There is one possibility. By partner's reply to RKC, you are already forced to bid slam. So any further bid you make below 6 ♥ must be telling something, confirming all key cards, and suggesting grand slam is a possibility.

Consider that partner opened and has no ♠ and the ♥ J at most in the trump suit. So partner must have at least a little something more than the two minor As. Is there any way to help partner evaluate how helpful that might be or show it to you?

I think there is. How about bidding 6 ♣? If partner interprets it as showing something in ♣ likely the ♣ king, then prospects for 7 look good and partner might bid 7. But even better, with a slightly different hand (exchange a low ♦ for ♦ K and ♣ Q for a low ♣), partner might find a 6 ♦ bid and you could envision pitching 2 ♠ on partner's control cards and having to ruff only 2 ♠ in partner's hand.

Now, since this bid isn't something really discussed, it's possible partner might interpret it as a trump Q ask. If so, partner will sign off in 6 ♥ and you'll be no worse off.

[HardVector]

 Cyberyeti, on 2019-February-28, 11:34, said:

Humans at high level tend to almost automatically lead a trump. Not sure about robots

By the way, the route to 13 tricks requiring 3 spade ruffs only needs partner to have 2 aces. That's 8 hcp. Partner has more. Once partner has shown a void in spades, they are a favorite to hold either 4 hearts or 6 clubs. I'd go for it, myself, as even with a trump lead, I'm thinking I'm going to have chances. Without a trump lead, it looks guaranteed.

[Stephen Tu]

 HardVector, on 2019-February-28, 22:44, said:

By the way, the route to 13 tricks requiring 3 spade ruffs only needs partner to have 2 aces. That's 8 hcp.

That's not really true at all. Even give partner CQ and HJ third there are issues guessing the distribution, how to get back to hand multiple times, how many clubs you can cash, how many trumps to draw. There is considerable danger of promoting a trump trick for the opps ruffing things on the way back to ruff additional spades, and also finally to draw the last trumps. Think how the play likely goes. Diamond lead, diamond ace, club to k presumably, spade ruff. club ace pitching spade? diamond ruff spade ruff? At this point you now have issues. On some distributions you have to cash HJ then CQ (LHO 4324; if instead you try to ruff club back RHO ruffs in with a high spot and promotes an eventual trick for partner). But if LHO is 5224 instead this line goes down; you have to ruff club back. And if RHO had side clubs, LHO some 6322, sometimes you have no play. If you had x-ray vision and could always guess the distribution maybe grand is good but it's not always easy to get enough spade ruffs even you avoid the trump opening lead and get diamond instead.

The actual hand is just beautiful because partner has HJ AND HT so you have one entry after CK is unblocked to ruff a club in case not 3-3 and the additional honor to get back to dummy to cash them with the 3rd round of trumps. But how to get partner to only bid slam with 4 hearts or HJT? I don't know.