Brexit poll -- "Wisdom of the crowd" theory

Brexit poll -- "Wisdom of the crowd" theory Can we get a thousand responses?

Poll: Asking for your PERSONAL estimation of Brexit odds (22 member(s) have cast votes)

In your personal view, how likely is a Brexit scenario?

ALMOST CERTAIN to remain (i.e. you estimate over a 90% chance they'll vote to remain) (2 votes [9.09%])
Percentage of vote: 9.09%
HIGHLY LIKELY to remain (under 90% but significantly higher than 50-50) (5 votes [22.73%])
Percentage of vote: 22.73%
SOMEWHAT LIKELY to vote remain (expect >50% likelihood but not by much) (5 votes [22.73%])
Percentage of vote: 22.73%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL (it's a 50-50 split -- OR -- I'm not sure either way) (4 votes [18.18%])
Percentage of vote: 18.18%
SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY to remain (expect <50% likelihood but not by much) (4 votes [18.18%])
Percentage of vote: 18.18%
HIGHLY UNLIKELY to remain (more than 10% but nowhere close to 50-50) (2 votes [9.09%])
Percentage of vote: 9.09%
ALMOST CERTAIN to leave (i.e. you estimate a <10% chance they'll remain in EU) (0 votes [0.00%])
Percentage of vote: 0.00%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 shyams

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 1,666
Joined: 2009-August-02
Gender:Male
Location:London, UK

Posted 2016-May-24, 14:33

This may be pseudo-science but I thought the Brexit scenario offers an opportunity to test the wisdom of the crowd theory. Dear reader, you get a choice to click on one option. It does not matter how little or lot you know about the topic of Brexit; what matters is simply which option of the above best represents your personal view of the likelihood of a Brexit.

Please note, you are not being asked on what you would prefer (if you were eligible to vote). Please choose your option based on what you believe (or think, or estimate, or have researched) is the likelihood of a Brexit.

In the unlikely event that we get a 1000+ responses, I propose to estimate the "wisdom of the crowd" % as follows:
(Votes for #1)x0.95 + (V #2)x0.75 + (V #3)x0.60 + (V #4)x0.50 + (V #5)x0.40 + (V #6)x0.25 + (V #7)x0.05 divided by (Total Votes)

A sufficiently large sample can then be compared to %s indicated in (a) UK-based opinion polls, (b) Analyst research (Wealth management, Investment Banking etc), and © betting odds...

Comments and views welcome.

#2 gwnn

Csaba the Hutt

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 13,027
Joined: 2006-June-16
Gender:Male
Interests:bye

Posted 2016-May-24, 14:46

I voted (not going to say what) but I know one thing for sure: we will not get 1000 responses.

... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
George Carlin

#3 gszes

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 3,660
Joined: 2011-February-12

Posted 2016-May-24, 17:13

IF you add a choice that reads like NO SANE PERSON could possibly care less about my opinion on this matter we might reach 1000

#4 shyams

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 1,666
Joined: 2009-August-02
Gender:Male
Location:London, UK

Posted 2016-May-24, 18:19

gwnn, on 2016-May-24, 14:46, said:

I voted (not going to say what) but I know one thing for sure: we will not get 1000 responses.

Perhaps the Yellows or Admins can somehow get this survey up on BBO instead of BBF. If that happens, we may get many thousands.

As is obvious, I don't want to know who voted (i.e. anonymity works) -- I only want many many votes.

Diana, is this feasible via BBO?

#5 gordontd

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 4,485
Joined: 2009-July-14
Gender:Male
Location:London

Posted 2016-May-25, 01:10

I think there's a problem with the way this is phrased in that the specific questions are asked in the negative of the general question. I initially answered incorrectly because of that.

Gordon Rainsford
London UK

#6 gwnn

Csaba the Hutt

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 13,027
Joined: 2006-June-16
Gender:Male
Interests:bye

Posted 2016-May-25, 01:15

shyams, on 2016-May-24, 18:19, said:

I don't think BBO was meant to be a survey site. Soon we'd have people asking help with their Bachelor's theses.

... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
George Carlin

#7 Vampyr

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 10,611
Joined: 2009-September-15
Gender:Female
Location:London

Posted 2016-May-25, 08:37

gordontd, on 2016-May-25, 01:10, said:

I think there's a problem with the way this is phrased in that the specific questions are asked in the negative of the general question. I initially answered incorrectly because of that.

LOL so did I.

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein

#8 fromageGB

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 2,679
Joined: 2008-April-06

Posted 2016-May-27, 12:04

I think the majority of the real voters are going to give the wrong answer, too.

#9 paulg

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 5,082
Joined: 2003-April-26
Gender:Male
Location:Scottish Borders

Posted 2016-May-28, 02:17

It seems like the wisdom of the crowd is that 17 of 1000 might vote. This could be accurate.

The Beer Card

I don't work for BBO and any advice is based on my BBO experience over the decades

#10 shyams

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 1,666
Joined: 2009-August-02
Gender:Male
Location:London, UK

Posted 2016-May-28, 05:26

paulg, on 2016-May-28, 02:17, said:

It seems like the wisdom of the crowd is that 17 of 1000 might vote. This could be accurate.

By the way, Paul, the expected voting pattern in Scotland is incredibly skewed. I believe currently 2/3rd of Scottish residents want to vote to "Stay in the EU", which (for the SNP leadership) may be too high.

The ideal scenario for SNP is for Scotland to vote "Stay in the EU" by a small yet respectable margin (say 54-46) and hope England votes to "Leave the EU". This will almost certainly trigger a new independence referendum, which otherwise looks like a distant possibility.

... convoluted perhaps, but I thought the above idea has sound political merit to it.

#11 Vampyr

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 10,611
Joined: 2009-September-15
Gender:Female
Location:London

Posted 2016-May-28, 06:03

I should rely on the markets rather than polls. Remain is a heavy favourite.

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein

#12 shyams

Group: Advanced Members
Posts: 1,666
Joined: 2009-August-02
Gender:Male
Location:London, UK

Posted 2016-May-28, 06:14

Vampyr, on 2016-May-28, 06:03, said:

I should rely on the markets rather than polls. Remain is a heavy favourite.

IMO, the markets are very poor at pricing politics. They got the last UK elections completely wrong, they mispriced Donald Trump (who was 8:1 odds for President 5 weeks ago), and they did not expect Front National to do so well in the first round of last French elections.

While I agree that Remain is the likely outcome, I disagree with the implied probability indicated by current market odds (which indicate a 81% chance that the UK will vote Remain).

Page 1 of 1

You cannot start a new topic
You cannot reply to this topic

BBO Discussion Forums: Brexit poll -- "Wisdom of the crowd" theory - BBO Discussion Forums