Below is an indicator of how much the betting world does not trust your nation's administration + its much vaunted checks and balances.
At this moment, I can bet £100 on Biden and make a £4 return on it.
* Given that Biden's presidency is a certainty such a return is
absolutely absurd. Yet, it is there and I can honestly put a few thousand quid to give myself (what should be) a guaranteed return.
* In case someone thinks this is a quack website or that the trading is really thin, I am talking about BETFAIR --- a gamblers trading platform where punters make all bets and there is no "house" to bet against. If I had the money, I could place a bet of £100,000 and the market would barely move despite such a huge amount being placed on one outcome.
* The total amount of money traded on this specific market so far is £ 550 million (roughly US$ 720m). Yes, this is trading volume and the underlying profits or losses would be much lower because the same person would be both backing and laying on a specific outcome which means they only receive the net position as payout.
Four years ago, I had a very small amount bet on Hillary to win. I vividly remember that when I woke up on Wednesday morning (i.e. day after election), the market was already trading at 1%. By the time it was noon UK, the yield had gone to zero --- i.e. you could no longer make money by betting on Trump. If we (the outside world) believed USA to be about the same as in 2016, we should have seen yields to be sub-1% at this time. Definitely not 4%!!
I realise I am simplifying things there and creating a narrative to fit my theory ("USA's checks & balances are all distorted"). Yet I am not totally wrong -- I am showing you the true monetary cost of your corruption. And the opportunity to make a so-called "risk-free" return on your funds.
Finally, NO I am not going to put new money on this market; logic says I should but fear of Trump and the Republicans is holding me back.
If you don't believe that the market still pays to bet on Biden, here is a link to a gambling website (caution: do not click if your country has restrictive laws that prohibit your landing on their site)